Novel Coronavirus – China

[ThundersnowDays]

3 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

So, if a person in your area was diagnosed with it and 3 days before the announcement he or she had visited their local tesco express, would you decide not to go to that shop for a week or something?

Most people would be fine going but I wouldn't take an at risk person there until it was cleaned.

[emax]

13 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Strongly disagree. Also to me it suggests an air of defeat, therefore treating it like it is everywhere, to me that causes more anxiety. For city dwellers maybe it is not necessary as we assume it is among us, but for those that live in small towns etc more likely to be caught out unprepared. I don’t understand why they won’t disclose this information they’re doing it in other countries with much higher cases. The public should be informed but of course fears of upsetting order is more important. 

Of course it is, otherwise people panic unnecessarily (which is already the case it seems) 

[Gray-Wolf]

I still reckon a human version of 'The cone of shame' would ,limit 'self infection'?

Now wash your Hands.......

[emax]

7 minutes ago, ThundersnowDays said:

Most people would be fine going but I wouldn't take an at risk person there until it was cleaned.

But in fairness, if you're really that worried about this, you shouldn't be taking an at risk person anywhere?? What if you'd been to that tesco a week ago? Where have you been today? Yesterday? Where will you go tomorrow? A positive test in a place you have been to would come at least 2 days after your visit to said place, so what difference does it make?

Just to be clear, I have no problem with people staying in if they are really worried etc, thats not my gripe. What I find strange, is to think that the government not releasing locations daily, would make any noticeable difference to the spread.

Edited March 4, 2020 by emax

[Daniel*]

9 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Just a quick question  the latest jump n figures today as been around 50% ish ( of the amount that had the virus yesterday)    can we expect this rate to continue  ie  Thursdays update to be around  160 infected?.   or is that to basic.

A 66% increase similarly this fast growth is what happened in Italy.

[emax]

The one bit of data I hope the government do release every week, is how many, if any patients, are serious or critical

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, emax said:

The one bit of data I hope the government do release every week, is how many, if any patients, are serious or critical

But going by your logic, wouldn't it cause complacency if low of panic if high?

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

A 66% increase similarly this fast growth is what happened in Italy.

Thanks Dan    I expect the days of 1 or 2 cases  happening are finished 

[emax]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But going by your logic, wouldn't it cause complacency if low of panic if high?

Oh, I'm just interested in the figures. I can take it or leave it, as I'm not hysterical over all this. I wont cry if they dont release them.................

[Captain Shortwave]

The trouble with a gap of a week as seen in other places is that you could go from tens of cases to thousands and when that bombshell hits then it is likely to already be too late.

The fact that the U.K. is doing the opposite of what other countries are doing is rather concerning.

[Paul]

1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The trouble with a gap of a week as seen in other places is that you could go from tens of cases to thousands and when that bombshell hits then it is likely to already be too late.

The fact that the U.K. is doing the opposite of what other countries are doing is rather concerning.

The gap of a week is for the locations, not the numbers.

[Dami]

I respectfully say that these things certainly bring out the worst in humanity.

Goes to show how complacent and disrespectful we are as a species.  

 

 

Edited March 4, 2020 by Dami

[emax]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But going by your logic, wouldn't it cause complacency if low of panic if high?

On this point again though, its actually completely different. Case numbers and critical numbers is a good indicator. So if lots of people were critical, it would make people think strongly, and if the numbers were high, I think panic would be justified. Whereas low or no critical would mean people could relax a bit (in terms of their worries etc). Location data everyday is pointless, because people will, and are suggesting to avoid an entire town, which unless you've not left the house in the last 2 weeks, is silly.

[Bristawl Si]

1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The trouble with a gap of a week as seen in other places is that you could go from tens of cases to thousands and when that bombshell hits then it is likely to already be too late.

The fact that the U.K. is doing the opposite of what other countries are doing is rather concerning.

"Doing the opposite"? Can you explain?

[Daniel*]

9 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Thanks Dan    I expect the days of 1 or 2 cases  happening are finished 

I think so too at least for a good while, we are starting to see first clusters of cases in our urban towns/cities. If we leap forward a month where will we be, I wonder? Scottish highlands is the place to be to escape it in U.K., similarly Northern Europe with very low population densities there it will be much easier to control.
 

[swebby]

46 minutes ago, thundercrazy said:

If the government contingency plan is to contain this as much as possible then surely it would be prudent for people to avoid areas when they become problematic?

I think the issue on the forum is that most people are still thinking in terms of containment.

If you put yourself in to the head space that the governments contingency plan is control (i.e. they expect containment to fail) then it all makes much more sense.

Containment failure means it is everywhere, so what is the point of updating specific locations, especially specific schools or surgeries etc. They will be publishing info that is woefully out of date within 24hrs, so it is not helpful, or an efficient use of resources.  Measures going forward (school closures) will probably now be done on a less localised scale, i.e not a specific school, but all schools in a town or postcode.

[Gray-Wolf]

Please do your best to calm folks fears about 'the numbers' as you find them released (I kinda think they'll be a 'piecemeal' approach with local media reporting local increases but one big 'roundup' by the govt. once a week?) as most folk will not have been as 'exposed' to the terms of reference we have here on this thread?

As I said dig out the 'R0' calculator and let them see how numbers increase under various 'R0's?

Do impress about hand washing/hand sanitizers as frequently as possible if out and about and,  at home, use dilute bleach solution on frequently touched areas? (belt & braces eh?)

I you feel the symptoms then wear a mask/scarf to intercept coughs/sneezes & put yer bog seat DOWN when you flush!!!

Help your kiddies in this new 'game' of hand washing and let them know about face touching (see who can last longest B4 'touching their face' just to help raise their own awareness of the issue?)

Gargle alcohol based mouth wash to 'disinfect' the back of the throat/nose

Most of all 'PMA'!!! (positive Mental Attitude)..... if there is a chance of you ending up like me you don't want to take it!

Do some gentle breathing exercises for a few minutes a day (evening?) to calm yourself and let your immune system restart if you've 'turned it off' via stress/anxiety!

Come on guys!

We'll be there on the other side of this!

EDIT: If you can't manage the 'frequent hand washing'  when out and about then consider disposable rubber gloves but be mindful when you remove them and then WASH YOUR HANDS!!!

Edited March 4, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[hammerb32]

8 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I think so too at least for a good while, we are starting to see first clusters of cases in our urban towns/cities. If we leap forward a month where will we be, I wonder? Scottish highlands is the place to be to escape it in U.K., similarly Northern Europe with very low population densities there it will be much easier to control.
 

I do take your point but on the flip side there's a comfort being on the doorstep of world class medical facilities that you find in our major cities.

[Summer Sun]

 

[thundercrazy]

33 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

What about if someone in that Tesco Express had been sick a week ago? Or how about someone suffered a heart attack? Alternatively, why not just lock yourself away?

Oh dear. Why on earth would you go to somewhere where the virus has been confirmed and risk spreading it to others if the place has not been deep cleaned? And heart attack? what has that got to do with it?

[swebby]

29 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

A 66% increase similarly this fast growth is what happened in Italy.

Growth might be similar but at the moment the cases are at least still being linked to arrivals from abroad.  Italy's problem was a sudden jump in cases with no obvious link to international travel, i.e widespread community transmission.

[nick sussex]

I think the UK government has done quite well so far but I’m not sure about this new policy of not disclosing locations .

Some might argue that by giving locations you can make people complacent in areas which haven’t had confirmed cases . 

On the other hand you need to keep the public onside and really need to be as transparent as possible .

Personally I like to know where cases are popping up , and especially if there are areas with a cluster of cases .

There are four regions of France at the moment which have the vast majority of cases and I won’t be going there anytime soon! 

 

[Guest Delete Me]

UK government are trying to manage the PR of the situation rather than let the media do it and create even more mass hysteria.

If they release case locations then the supermarkets will be hit in those towns and cities directly affected which then spirals into other problems.

Boris is doing a decent job of managing a tricky situation currently when he also has flooding, brexit and internal issues to also deal with. 

[emax]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I think the UK government has done quite well so far but I’m not sure about this new policy of not disclosing locations .

Some might argue that by giving locations you can make people complacent in areas which haven’t had confirmed cases . 

On the other hand you need to keep the public onside and really need to be as transparent as possible .

Personally I like to know where cases are popping up , and especially if there are areas with a cluster of cases .

There are four regions of France at the moment which have the vast majority of cases and I won’t be going there anytime soon! 

 

But they aren't hiding locations, they're just giving a roundup at the end of the week, rather than updating once or twice a day. If a town has a confirmed case, unless that person doesnt go out much, then you'll never trace every contact, its just not possible. As I say, people who are that concerned about going outside their house, shouldn't be going out whether theres confirmed cases or not, as at this stage, with cases jumping so quickly, it makes no difference whatsoever. Cases are 2 days old at least anyway, plus however long they where shedding it for, so waiting a couple more days makes no odds, if it means resources can be directed into something more useful.

[Puddy Galore]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think the UK government has done quite well so far but I’m not sure about this new policy of not disclosing locations .

Some might argue that by giving locations you can make people complacent in areas which haven’t had confirmed cases . 

On the other hand you need to keep the public onside and really need to be as transparent as possible .

Personally I like to know where cases are popping up , and especially if there are areas with a cluster of cases .

There are four regions of France at the moment which have the vast majority of cases and I won’t be going there anytime soon! 

 

I agree wholeheartedly.  For me it is nothing about being complacent, it is simply about having all the available information on locations from when you can make informed decisions about where you go.  Like a lot of people I have an elderly mum (88 this year).  She is very active wanting to do her own supermarket shopping and visit garden centres etc but if there are confirmed cases locally then I would be really looking at curtailing these type of excursions for both of us.