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Novel Coronavirus – China


Snipper

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Posted
  • Location: Fettercain/Edzell
  • Location: Fettercain/Edzell
2 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Could it be possible that it peaks close to summer, before dying away, and perhaps emerging come next Winter!  I feel Feb with all the appropriate protocol in place.. Ie.. Travel restrictions and correct hygiene we can keep this from becoming devastating!! Yes it may well become very serious, but I'm far from convinced it will become known as the most notorious virus that ever occurred to the human race!! Also consider that we may well have a vaccination programme in place Inside the next 12 months.. I just hope and prey that we can keep it in check prior to this. 

It is not known whether or not CV will die down over the summer (ref previous posts and the net) - or die down and re-emerge next winter in a mutated form.

The scientific consensus is that a vaccination will not be available within 12 months. This has implications for older or vulnerable persons now and next winter.

I don't know what you mean by travel restrictions, but the benefit of closing borders has been deemed as of uncertain benefit in contolling spread.

The most significant issue, here, in effecting control is to trace the contacts of the two people affected by community spread.

The situation is uncertain.

Edited by J10
Removing political comment
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Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
25 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

2,000 surgical masks have been stolen from a hospital in Marseille .

I find that appalling . Those were intended for nurses and doctors and there’s already a shortage .

I know, Nick. How anyone could do that is beyond me. They'll probably be sold at hyperinflated prices to make money for some morally bereft sods...

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The WHO is asking countries to test a sample of its population for antibodies so that they can ascertain more accurately how many people have been infected .

So the public will have to be willing to engage in that and come forward .

WHO have said the current fatality rate is 3.4% ! 

Now of course that includes the vast majority of cases which were in China but the Italian rate is close to that so this is very troubling news .

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Posted
  • Location: Mid Essex
  • Location: Mid Essex
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The WHO is asking countries to test a sample of its population for antibodies so that they can ascertain more accurately how many people have been infected .

So the public will have to be willing to engage in that and come forward .

WHO have said the current fatality rate is 3.4% ! 

Now of course that includes the vast majority of cases which were in China but the Italian rate is close to that so this is very troubling news .

Good thing.  Some might have a natural resistance. Bit like some Ash trees seem to be immune to Ash dieback 

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
6 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Sorry can’t find this comment in line. A link please. 

Sorry for any confusion, that bit was not Dr Adhanom, it was me, commenting on our less than enlightened behaviour as a species.

Link to the Guardian live stream is here and the story was at 17.44 in the timeline.

4320.jpg?width=1200&height=630&quality=8
WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

Follow live updates on outbreak as Germany also reports increase in infections and more events are cancelled across Europe

 

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
2 minutes ago, Donegal said:

Comparing Italy and South Korea cases/death rate. The Italians have a lot of cases not accounted for IMO

Someone posted over the weekend that the Italian case number was for tested positive cases with significant symptoms, basically, the hospitalisations. If true (and i hope it is) it would mean you are correct about a large number of unaccounted cases. 

I think the two countries to watch for mortality numbers are Japan and South Korea. Both have good health systems, both appear to have transparent reporting, they are also at different ends of the containment spectrum so give a good contrast. So far, South Korea reassuringly low, although the case spike is probably still to work it's way through the system.  Japan, a little more concerning at 2% on raw day by day numbers.

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
10 minutes ago, Donegal said:

Comparing Italy and South Korea cases/death rate. The Italians have a lot of cases not accounted for IMO

I see a leading Alzheimer therapist has died in Italy. No long stay in ICU there, maybe patients arriving in critical condition and passing quickly are changing the ratios we have been used to seeing in China.

Quote

dies at 61 years old a Parma the estimated doctor Ivo Cilesi. The doctor, positive to coronavirus, had been hospitalized on Friday in Fidenza (Parma), then transported to the Parma hospital where he died on the night between Sunday 1 and Monday 2 March. Ivo Cilesi was born in Genoa, but for about twenty years he lived in Cene, in the province of Bergamo. The doctor was famous for the Doll Therapy, a central technique in his work to combatAlzheimer’s. With the “Doll Therapy” he has given assistance to numerous patients suffering from this pathology. Doll Therapy is used to alleviate the behavioral problems of Alzheimer’s patients.

https://en24.news/u/2020/03/he-was-among-the-leading-alzheimer-experts-in-italy-he-treated-the-sick-with-doll-therapy.html

 

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Posted
  • Location: Mid Essex
  • Location: Mid Essex
15 minutes ago, swebby said:

Sorry for any confusion, that bit was not Dr Adhanom, it was me, commenting on our less than enlightened behaviour as a species.

 

Funny how the odd words cause a misunderstanding.  Suppose at the moment it is the last thing we want. 

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Posted
  • Location: Mid Essex
  • Location: Mid Essex
10 minutes ago, Donegal said:

Off topic but I found it interesting. 1% of Europeans cannot contract HIV

 

Not really.  All good stuff to add to a perspective. 

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

Does anyone in here know much about the Italian northern region that's been affected quite badly; is it mainly elderly, rural i guess? 

 

Edited by Norrance
Off-topic paragraph removed
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The UK has tested over 13,500 people , population approx 65 million 

The USA has tested 472 , population approx 360 million 

The stories coming out of the USA are shocking , it’s a total shambles , people with symptoms unable to get tested , faulty test kits, not enough labs, a lack of coordination between the CDC and each state.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
1 hour ago, Bristle boy said:

Does anyone in here know much about the Italian northern region that's been affected quite badly; is it mainly elderly, rural i guess? 

 

Did hear on LBC that all those that have died in Italy were over 65.

Someone may be able to confirm, or not I suppose.

Edited by J10
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

A certain politician  who I shall not name has accused the UK government of sticking its head in the sand over the virus !

And applauded the USA for cutting interest rates ! 

Who needs testing and decent healthcare, just cut the interest rates and all will be fine.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The situation in the USA is very worrying .

They’ve only today started proper testing in some cities which means many people will have been carrying and passing the virus on without realizing .

The chance to trace contacts will be that much harder , those that should have been quarantined won’t have been.

People have been asking to be tested and have been told the federal government won’t cover the cost .

It really is a shocking state of affairs for a supposedly rich advanced country .

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Report comments that are political. Don't add to the problem by whining about them and further cluttering up the thread. Cheers.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
3 hours ago, ThundersnowDays said:

Why haven't they told us the locations of today's cases?

Letchworth 

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
36 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The situation in the USA is very worrying .

They’ve only today started proper testing in some cities which means many people will have been carrying and passing the virus on without realizing .

The chance to trace contacts will be that much harder , those that should have been quarantined won’t have been.

People have been asking to be tested and have been told the federal government won’t cover the cost .

It really is a shocking state of affairs for a supposedly rich advanced country .

To be honest it really isn’t a surprise. US healthcare provision has always been pretty dire, whoever is in charge at a specific time.

Edited by Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth

Does anyone have the figures for having and surviving in terms of age groups? 

Listen its not the best news, but surely so long as you have a good immune system and dont have a serious underlying condition like heart/diabetes etc, I'd take the advice not to panic. Like I said yesterday, as my Mum has a lung condition which nearly killed her 2 years ago, I'm more concerned for my parents. But if I can plan and sort an idea with them in isolation if it hits hard, that's not panic, that's common sense!

As for not flying etc.....well who knows. But keep calm and carry on doesn't seem a bad way of going about things- after all stress will make.your immune system weak and more suspectable ;)

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
33 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Did hear on LBC that all those that have died in Italy were over 65.

Someone may be able to confirm, or not I suppose.

Not exactly what you’re after, but a good piece of statistical analysis on age groups etc 

https://blog.sprucehealth.com/coronavirus-whos-going-to-die/

@philglossop possibly what you’re looking for..?

Edited by Beanz
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Posted
  • Location: Near Ballintoy (North Antrim) 110m asl
  • Location: Near Ballintoy (North Antrim) 110m asl
42 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Does anyone in here know much about the Italian northern region that's been affected quite badly; is it mainly elderly, rural i guess? 

 

Another thing I’ve been wondering, are most of the Italian cases still predominantly coming from the same region which was quarantined or has it spread to the rest of Italy yet in significant numbers?

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Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee
1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

Could it be possible that it peaks close to summer, before dying away, and perhaps emerging come next Winter!  I feel Feb with all the appropriate protocol in place.. Ie.. Travel restrictions and correct hygiene we can keep this from becoming devastating!! Yes it may well become very serious, but I'm far from convinced it will become known as the most notorious virus that ever occurred to the human race!! Also consider that we may well have a vaccination programme in place Inside the next 12 months.. I just hope and prey that we can keep it in check prior to this. 

Certainly the second wave of Spanish flu was the serious one. Hopefully in this case something similar will not happen.

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