Novel Coronavirus – China

[emax]

3 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

They might make an exception for him though?

If it transpired that they did, then the NHS (or that particular department) doesnt deserve tax payers money. Even if Boris insisted that he shook their hands (very unlikely), then whatever the department, as a professional health service, they should of refused. If they allowed him in to shake their hands, then no wonder the NHS is in such a state if professionalism goes out the window that easily!

Just to be clear, I dont think any of this happened at all, but just theorising if it did!

[alexisj9]

14 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

As far as 'spread' is concerned? Remember this is not just via oral emmisions but also anal?

Anyone who has seen Norovirus rip through a ward will know the extra mile you need to go with your 'barrier medicine' to keep clear of that one!!!

I would also advise folk be 'canny' as we wait to see just how far it has begun to circulate among us?

If not for yourself then for those of importance around you?

A human being will touch their face in excess of 90 time a day on average, don't believe me? put some glitter paste on the hand you favour and see how you look by days end!

I have ivhy eyes and rummy nose with sneezing from hay-fever since about two weeks ago, can't help the sneezing, but I always feel like people are angry when they look at me, wondering why I'm not self isolating. I dread that tickle at the moment, and the nose drops doctor has prescribed are different to the usual one, type of steroid, and it doesn't work as well. 

[swebby]

19 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

Under 29s is 0.2%...

Then perhaps making the distinction that you were only referring to under 29's in your original post would have been helpful?

The WHO report does not have a full breakdown of their crude CFR by age, but 0.2% actually strikes me as surprisingly high?  Your figure suggests that for a 25 year old, Covid-19 is as lethal as influenza is in general? The majority of fatalities in influenza, as with Covid-19, tend to be found in the over 60's so 0.2% in 20 somethings is not very reassuring.

I would also point out that using your comparison for a 25 year old, a round of Russian roulette would appear to be only 100 times more dangerous than contracting Covid-19?

[Snipper]

I really wonder on occasions if people actually listen to what is said. 

[Spikecollie]

9 minutes ago, emax said:

Seeing as alcohol gel is probably going to be non existent to buy anywhere soon lol, there's always Hibiscrub (which will run out soon no doubt). As far as I know, it isnt quite as effective as alcohol etc, but better than normal hand wash.

I get alcohol gel from work and there's normally a bottle left in every client's house, but I managed to buy 10 more bottles myself yesterday which I have squirrelled away under the sink.

[Spikecollie]

7 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I have ivhy eyes and rummy nose with sneezing from hay-fever since about two weeks ago, can't help the sneezing, but I always feel like people are angry when they look at me, wondering why I'm not self isolating. I dread that tickle at the moment, and the nose drops doctor has prescribed are different to the usual one, type of steroid, and it doesn't work as well. 

I know what it's like. Good old Sudafed usually does it for me. House dust makes me sneeze but mould sets it off really badly and my eyes end up looking like I've been chopping a hundred onions.

Edited March 3, 2020 by Spikecollie

[Gael_Force]

8 minutes ago, emax said:

If it transpired that they did, then the NHS (or that particular department) doesnt deserve tax payers money. Even if Boris insisted that he shook their hands (very unlikely), then whatever the department, as a professional health service, they should of refused. If they allowed him in to shake their hands, then no wonder the NHS is in such a state if professionalism goes out the window that easily!

Just to be clear, I dont think any of this happened at all, but just theorising if it did!

He would have been nowhere near confirmed cases but it is an appalling example of defective leadership.

Whatever the standard of reporting, he may well have inadvertently shaken hands with someone asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic. This could happen to anyone, anywhere ... telling the public not to shake hands is a pointless exercise if the PM is not going to promote and adhere to advice.

[Ross90]

12 minutes ago, swebby said:

Then perhaps making the distinction that you were only referring to under 29's in your original post would have been helpful?

The WHO report does not have a full breakdown of their crude CFR by age, but 0.2% actually strikes me as surprisingly high?  Your figure suggests that for a 25 year old, Covid-19 is as lethal as influenza is in general? The majority of fatalities in influenza, as with Covid-19, tend to be found in the over 60's so 0.2% in 20 somethings is not very reassuring.

I would also point out that using your comparison for a 25 year old, a round of Russian roulette would appear to be only 100 times more dangerous than contracting Covid-19?

My original reply was in reply to Feb who mentioned 29 year olds, probably should have quoted him.I didn't say it was 500 times more i said it was a 1 in 500 chance for under 29s.

Yes that's a bit higher than flu but my point was more that i'm not sure the reaction is justified when you look at the mortality rate.If it was 50% then absolutely do whatever you can to stop it but 2%...

[Gray-Wolf]

17 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I have ivhy eyes and rummy nose with sneezing from hay-fever since about two weeks ago, can't help the sneezing, but I always feel like people are angry when they look at me, wondering why I'm not self isolating. I dread that tickle at the moment, and the nose drops doctor has prescribed are different to the usual one, type of steroid, and it doesn't work as well. 

Sore throat and dry cough not 'sneezing' is what you need to worry about?

Check out the advice from the coronavirus Dr I posted upthread (once my post is released) and arm yourself with the facts?

Edited March 3, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[alexisj9]

18 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

I get alcohol gel from work and there's normally a bottle left in every client's house, but I managed to buy 10 more bottles myself yesterday which I have squirrelled away under the sink.

I have a bottle come withy perscription and loads of hand wipes too, which came by accident, my husband order four packs he thought, but it ended up dour large boxes, the out three were going to come next day, my husband cancelled them, so I can hand some out if anyone round here needs them. 

[swebby]

That's fair enough Ross90. 

2% may seem small, but would have very big political effects above and beyond strain on essential services and NHS. If we end up with a 50% infection rate and a 2% mortality (i personally think/hope it will be a lot lot lower) that will mean nearly everyone will know someone that will have perished from the virus. That is likely to lead to significant questioning of what the official action and preparedness was. Basically, it means an unhappy electorate and no government wants that.  Do not be surprised if you see actions from governments that you feel are alarmist, they will have done the calculations and know that this is a better course of action compared to having fingers pointed at them for complacency one year down the line.

[nick sussex]

Does the amount of the virus you’re exposed to effect whether you’ll get it or will a tiny amount still multiply sufficiently.

As for panic buying it sort of feeds itself . Those who weren’t going to see the shelves emptying and then think oh perhaps I’d better get a few extra essentials in .

And so the whole thing spirals ! 

[Snowy L]

26 minutes ago, swebby said:

Then perhaps making the distinction that you were only referring to under 29's in your original post would have been helpful?

The WHO report does not have a full breakdown of their crude CFR by age, but 0.2% actually strikes me as surprisingly high?  Your figure suggests that for a 25 year old, Covid-19 is as lethal as influenza is in general? The majority of fatalities in influenza, as with Covid-19, tend to be found in the over 60's so 0.2% in 20 somethings is not very reassuring.

I would also point out that using your comparison for a 25 year old, a round of Russian roulette would appear to be only 100 times more dangerous than contracting Covid-19?

Yes I don't think many people realise how high 0.2% actually is. 

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Snowy L said:

Yes I don't think many people realise how high 0.2% actually is. 

True . That would be much higher than the normal rate for that age group with seasonal flu .

If the overall flu fatality rate is 0.1% that includes much older people who are much higher .

So a 0.2 rate for that younger age group is very high. As for symptoms I think more info needs to be made regarding the differences between the current Coronavirus and seasonal flu .

The vast majority of people with the former have a dry cough and fever initially .

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

This virus is a problem for sure, but I feel with the government taking action now, we can at least cap it before it gets out of hand! And keep in mind, this will be a mild illness for the majority, yes I'm aware that means the elderly and those with on going illness will be most at risk... My dad for instance has parkinsons, which means his immunity is compromised. I keep trying to drum it into him, but to no effect. On a a more light hearted note, I suffer with several allergy problems, meaning I sneeze alot. I've just been in a major supermarket to stock up on some essentials, when I had a sneezing fit... Seriously, I'm pretty sure I cleared 60% of the store. That's one way I suppose to get a care free shop in folks.. Whatever your doing or planning, please take care, and all the best of health to you. 

[Summer Sun]

As of 9am today 13,911 people have been tested

13,860 negative.

51 positive.

The locations of the 12 new cases have not been released yet and the country remains in the containment phase.

[Gray-Wolf]

So Tokyo olympics may be 'postponed'?

https://twitter.com/i/events/1234809224087007232

Edited March 3, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[alexisj9]

33 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Sore throat and dry cough not 'sneezing' is what you need to worry about?

Check out the advice from the coronavirus Dr I posted upthread (once my post is released) and arm yourself with the facts?

I know, its other people who think I'm ill, so now I dread if I'm out and feel a sneeze coming. 

[Gray-Wolf]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

I know, its other people who think I'm ill, so now I dread if I'm out and feel a sneeze coming. 

So tell them to get the correct info lest they 'die of ignorance'? You'll be doing them a favour!

Is that post from the coronavirus Dr in the USA released yet?

Check out what you can do through the day the lessen infection?

He has over 50 years of dealing/studying with various coronavirus strains and so is applying those 'smarts' to this one?

[nick sussex]

11 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

So Tokyo olympics may be 'postponed'?

https://twitter.com/i/events/1234809224087007232

Well they’d still only have a few months to play with . They could be put back towards September/October but not much later . 

I still think they’ll go ahead as planned , the peak virus will likely be in the spring before falling during the summer months.

Edited March 3, 2020 by nick sussex

[abruzzi spur]

The seven things to panic-buy now before all the other b*stards get there

WWW.THEDAILYMASH.CO.UK

---

ALL those other selfish, panicking b*stards are going to strip the shelves of goods so get to the supermarket before they do. But what to buy?

 

[Beanz]

4 hours ago, swebby said:

WHO China report is here

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

Page 12 covers their estimates of crude* CFR.  2% is not in there, so i am splitting the difference between China as a whole (3.8%) and China excluding Wuhan figures (0.7%). This is a very crude extrapolation on my part to get an upper estimate.  The crude CFR for Wuhan is (5.8%) skews the overall figure and is the cautionary tale of what happens when a reasonably well equipped health service gets swamped with initial poor containment. The UK public are probably not yet appreciative that the UK government will move Heaven and Earth to avoid a Wuhan type of situation (inter city travel bans, closures on institutions) as 1 in 20 of your electorate shuffling off the mortal coil is not good for you come polling day.

Now, it is important to say that in my entirely inexpert and personal opinion, CFR is likely to be much much nearer to the 0.7% given for the rest of China. In fact for any nation with a decent quality healthcare service i would expect it to be a lot lower than 0.7%.  The WHO themselves say their crude* estimates will be subject to biases, and the novel situation that Wuhan found itself in will have skewed the figures.  The initial figures that came out of Italy were worryingly high, but they seem to dropping off now and someone posted on here that Italy's case figures were only covering hospital admissions.  For countries with less satisfactory health care systems, the figures could be very nasty.

*crude means that it is acknowledging that they themselves are making extrapolations to get a CFR, as this is something that can only be genuinely calculated after an epidemic has finished.

 

Interesting more recent analysis from the NEJM

"On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.  In another article in the Journal, Guan et al report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively."

 

 

 

[Spikecollie]

13 new cases in France. The total is now 204.

Edited March 3, 2020 by Spikecollie

[nick sussex]

Just now, Spikecollie said:

13 new cases in France. The total is now 204.

13 doesn’t sound too bad but I think they do more than one update per day.   Hopefully our bubble remains intact ! 

[Summer Sun]

England rugby player Mako Vunipola has gone into self-isolation as a precaution after passing through Hong Kong at the weekend. He will not face Wales this weekend and hasn't met up with the rest of the squad.