Novel Coronavirus – China

[Robbie Garrett]

7 hours ago, Sky Full said:

This virus does seem to be easily tranmissable and therefore it could eventually spread to all parts of the globe and affect many millions of people.  But has it affected you yet?  I wonder if people are thinking twice about booking holidays in Italy, for example, or even other European countries which are also affected.  Are you perhaps thinking of cancelling some future travel arrangements?  How will the airports respond in Europe if many more thousands of people catch the virus?  Would you wear a face mask in public given that they are pretty ineffective?  There are inevitably reports of people stockpiling food which seems ridiculous now, but what if food supplies are affected because thousands of people have to take time off work?  Personally I believe that pretty soon it will be in every part of the UK and there is nothing we can do about it except maintain personal hygiene and hope we don't catch it...... 

Personally, the EU need to close the whole entire airspace for at least two weeks. The ashcloud did it, this time it needs to be done.

[Allseasons-Si]

First time i have posted in here but been following this thread for a while now

there is just one comment from me regarding all this and it's not been mentioned i don't think but what about pets?,can they spread the virus,we talk about us touching things but what about your pet/s,i have a cat now(18 months old) and never had one but she is out most of the time,what will she bring in on her paws etc after trudging about for hours on end 

just a thought

me too have sanitizes at hand but your mind boggles sometimes like what have i touched and can i remember what i have touched from one area to another and it's starting to drill in my head now that every time i go anywhere i have to wash or sanitize,i even steer wide of folk in crowded places and they may look at you as if you have done something wrong,crazy lol

THIS VIRUS NEEDS CAPPING AND A VACCINE FINDING FAST. 

 

[northwestsnow]

There will be no vaccine for at the very least a year.The virus is going to have a huge impact on our daily lives within the next 3 to 4 weeks IMO.

Of course washing hands is vital, but increasingly i suspect will face masks, not to prevent catching the bug,but helping to prevent someone with the bug spreading it to others..

If someone at my workplace catches it, then i won't be going in work for a while, i'm pretty sure others will be the same.

[Frost HoIIow]

58 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

Agree with you. The Government cant come out and say it's so bad etc as people will panic and that can crash the economy, the usual scum will start riots, it would be utter chaos, but I'm pretty sure this is as bad as it gets in terms of this virus. 

The CDC have even stopped publishing infection confirmations and testing confirmations, I'm pretty sure the reason is to prevent panic.

Lots of videos on twitter from inside Iran, its just awful, bodies everywhere. Its grim. Very grim.

Indeed. I've seen one (maybe the same video you saw) with a lot of body bags in a hospital in Qom. And another video of a person really struggling to breathe lying on the ground outside somewhere else in Iran. I think this is worse than Iran is letting on. I think China has heavily suppressed their true figures as well.

[Frost HoIIow]

13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

There will be no vaccine for at the very least a year.The virus is going to have a huge impact on our daily lives within the next 3 to 4 weeks IMO.

Of course washing hands is vital, but increasingly i suspect will face masks, not to prevent catching the bug,but helping to prevent someone with the bug spreading it to others..

If someone at my workplace catches it, then i won't be going in work for a while, i'm pretty sure others will be the same.

I don't blame you. I'm seriously considering ordering a decent mask before there's a surge in buying them which I think will happen within days. Might look daft wearing one but if it protects to some degree it's better than taking a more stupid risk of mingling with the public not wearing one.

[Snipper]

This was posted on a community Facebook page I access. Interesting the comments about how long it lives on surfaces, which is far different from what has been posted on here  

Last evening dining out with friends, one of their uncles, who's graduated with a master's degree and who worked in Shenzhen Hospital (Guangdong Province, China) sent him the following notes on Coronavirus for guidance:
1. If you have a runny nose and sputum, you have a common cold
2. Coronavirus pneumonia is a dry cough with no runny nose.
3. This new virus is not heat-resistant and will be killed by a temperature of just 26/27 degrees. It hates the Sun.
4. If someone sneezes with it, it takes about 10 feet before it drops to the ground and is no longer airborne.
5. If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours - so if you come into contact with any metal surface - wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap.
6. On fabric it can survive for 6-12 hours. normal laundry detergent will kill it.
7. Drinking warm water is effective for all viruses. Try not to drink liquids with ice.
8. Wash your hands frequently as the virus can only live on your hands for 5-10 minutes, but - a lot can happen during that time - you can rub your eyes, pick your nose unwittingly and so on.
9. You should also gargle as a prevention. A simple solution of salt in warm water will suffice.
10. Can't emphasise enough - drink plenty of water!
THE SYMPTOMS
1. It will first infect the throat, so you'll have a sore throat lasting 3/4 days
2. The virus then blends into a nasal fluid that enters the trachea and then the lungs, causing pneumonia. This takes about 5/6 days further.
3. With the pneumonia comes high fever and difficulty in breathing.
4. The nasal congestion is not like the normal kind. You feel like you're drowning. It's imperative you then seek immediate attention.
SPREAD THE WORD - PLEASE SHARE.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 hours ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

I'm all for it to contain this outbreak. Far too many people are walking around saying, "it's just the flu"... it really isnt. Serious and strong measures are needed to bring it under control. 

Its apparent that Cov is or has been spreading for weeks before you even hear about it. Its damn scary when you have elderly people and children in your family. 

'It's just the flu'

Anyone who has actually had the flu would not be saying those words.

Edited March 3, 2020 by CreweCold

[ciel]

5 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

First time i have posted in here but been following this thread for a while now

there is just one comment from me regarding all this and it's not been mentioned i don't think but what about pets?,can they spread the virus,we talk about us touching things but what about your pet/s,i have a cat now(18 months old) and never had one but she is out most of the time,what will she bring in on her paws etc after trudging about for hours on end 

just a thought

me too have sanitizes at hand but your mind boggles sometimes like what have i touched and can i remember what i have touched from one area to another and it's starting to drill in my head now that every time i go anywhere i have to wash or sanitize,i even steer wide of folk in crowded places and they may look at you as if you have done something wrong,crazy lol

THIS VIRUS NEEDS CAPPING AND A VACCINE FINDING FAST. 

 

Info regarding pets

Can I catch coronavirus from my pet? - Vet Help Direct

VETHELPDIRECT.COM

---

Can dogs, cats or other pets carry coronavirus? In this blog, we’re going to look at the evidence, and suggest ways you can protect your pets and yourself

 

[Blessed Weather]

Sound advice in this Telegraph article. Extracts:

Dirty banknotes may be spreading the coronavirus, World Health Organisation warns

People have been warned to wash their hands after using banknotes - and if possible to use contactless payments instead

Banknotes may be spreading the new coronavirus so people should try to use contactless payments instead, the World Health Organisation has said. Customers should wash their hands after touching banknotes because infectious Covid-19 may cling to the surface for a number of days, the UN agency warned on Monday night. To prevent the spread of the disease, people should use contactless technology where possible, a spokesman added. Last night the Bank of England acknowledged that banknotes “can carry bacteria or viruses” and urged people to regularly wash their hands.

Source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/02/exclusive-dirty-banknotes-may-spreading-coronavirus-world-health/

[alexisj9]

4 hours ago, Snipper said:

This was posted on a community Facebook page I access. Interesting the comments about how long it lives on surfaces, which is far different from what has been posted on here  

Last evening dining out with friends, one of their uncles, who's graduated with a master's degree and who worked in Shenzhen Hospital (Guangdong Province, China) sent him the following notes on Coronavirus for guidance:
1. If you have a runny nose and sputum, you have a common cold
2. Coronavirus pneumonia is a dry cough with no runny nose.
3. This new virus is not heat-resistant and will be killed by a temperature of just 26/27 degrees. It hates the Sun.
4. If someone sneezes with it, it takes about 10 feet before it drops to the ground and is no longer airborne.
5. If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours - so if you come into contact with any metal surface - wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap.
6. On fabric it can survive for 6-12 hours. normal laundry detergent will kill it.
7. Drinking warm water is effective for all viruses. Try not to drink liquids with ice.
8. Wash your hands frequently as the virus can only live on your hands for 5-10 minutes, but - a lot can happen during that time - you can rub your eyes, pick your nose unwittingly and so on.
9. You should also gargle as a prevention. A simple solution of salt in warm water will suffice.
10. Can't emphasise enough - drink plenty of water!
THE SYMPTOMS
1. It will first infect the throat, so you'll have a sore throat lasting 3/4 days
2. The virus then blends into a nasal fluid that enters the trachea and then the lungs, causing pneumonia. This takes about 5/6 days further.
3. With the pneumonia comes high fever and difficulty in breathing.
4. The nasal congestion is not like the normal kind. You feel like you're drowning. It's imperative you then seek immediate attention.
SPREAD THE WORD - PLEASE SHARE.

 

Well exactly the symptoms I had in late September that early October, look back a few pages when I say a few, about a week or so back, I wrote out my symptoms there. 

[Summer Sun]

The government are expected to push through emergency powers which will allow them to bring in school closures & ban big gatherings as well as other measures if needed.

Boris will be holding another press conference at around 10:30.

[Summer Sun]

Overnight China reported 11 new cases of coronavirus they were all outside the Hubei province with 7 of the cases are linked to Italy.

[Summer Sun]

One of the few people to speak about the virus and what it's actually like

'How I survived coronavirus and isolation'

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

53-year-old Julie talks about what it's like to be diagnosed with coronavirus and survive the symptoms.

 

[Snowy L]

Not sure if he's been posted here before, but he is a great source of information regarding this virus. Dr John Campbell

 

https://youtube.com/user/Campbellteaching

[snowdog]

I found this article on the BBC very enlightening.This lady explained all her symptoms and it sounds quite worrying that she had such trouble breathing.Just shows how dangerous it can be if you already have poor lung function 

Edited ,It seems Summer Sun  and myself posted this at the same time!

'How I survived coronavirus and isolation'

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

53-year-old Julie talks about what it's like to be diagnosed with coronavirus and survive the symptoms.

 

Edited March 3, 2020 by snowdog

[Summer Sun]

374 new cases in South Korea

Total now 5,186

[swebby]

11 hours ago, Ross90 said:

Russian roulette except instead of a 1 in 5-7 chance you have about a 1 in 500 chance of dying...

 

I'm not saying it shouldn't be taken seriously but in my opinion some Governments are in danger of doing more damage than the virus itself.

NB - a CFR of 2% (upper estimate for Covid-19) is not a 1 in 500 chance, it is a 1 in 50 chance.  So only a tenth as dangerous as playing Russian roulette...........

[Beanz]

4 minutes ago, swebby said:

NB - a CFR of 2% (upper estimate for Covid-19) is not a 1 in 500 chance, it is a 1 in 50 chance.  So only a tenth as dangerous as playing Russian roulette...........

What’s your source on that figure? 

[Astral Goat Juice]

9 hours ago, emax said:

Have you got a link for this? Interesting if true

CDC drops coronavirus testing numbers from their website

WWW.GOOGLE.COM

---

Testing is expected to expand across the country this week

3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

'It's just the flu'

Anyone who has actually had the flu would not be saying those words.

That's true, I had the flu once, didnt move from my bed for 3 days and felt like I'd been hit by a freight train. 

[philglossop]

I had flu back in 2003 the last time, and started symptoms for swine flu but got Tamiflu so I was lucky. 

Correctly it's going to be in a few weeks I think we'll see this really explode here. Cant see me going to work in car parks if it hits here....

[swebby]

3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

'It's just the flu'

Anyone who has actually had the flu would not be saying those words.

Indeed, and that is a genuine problem.

People regularly confuse heavy colds as flu and probably do not understand that it is a dangerous disease in it's own right that is a significant hazard to high risk individuals. Bristol Boy posted US mortality figures for this years seasonal flu and they are in themselves grim reading.  I recall there was a stat saying that on average an individual is very unlikely to catch influenza more than 7 times in their lifetime and half of those instances are likely to be before they are an adult. Not sure how true that stat is, but a once a decade occurrence means people forget how nasty Flu is.

[alexisj9]

7 minutes ago, philglossop said:

I had flu back in 2003 the last time, and started symptoms for swine flu but got Tamiflu so I was lucky. 

Correctly it's going to be in a few weeks I think we'll see this really explode here. Cant see me going to work in car parks if it hits here....

Last time I had flu, 2014 or 15 somewhere around then, I ended up in hospital, I'm still not sure whether I had flu or not in September last year, but that almost put me in hospital too. I had tammy flu with the first one though, it does work Well, along with antibiotics. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

25 minutes ago, Beanz said:

What’s your source on that figure? 

It's pretty common to see estimates of the death rate (or CFR) at around 1 to 3%. Going purely by the number of cases (~90,000) and number of deaths (~3,000) that would suggest a 3.3% rate. But it appears highly variable due to differences in age, underlying health factors, sex, location, etc.
Here's a study that estimates a 2.3% rate, but there are others out there: 

Study of 72,000 COVID-19 patients finds 2.3% death rate | CIDRAP

WWW.CIDRAP.UMN.EDU

---

The JAMA study reveals a 49% death rate in critically ill patients; for a much smaller study it was 62%.

 

Edited March 3, 2020 by BornFromTheVoid

[Bristawl Si]

Spikecollie's mention of 1st cases on St Marteen and St Barts yday.

Cruise ships stop in these places almost everyday. American cruise ships often sail the Carib for around 7 days. Brit cruise ships, incl P&O and Tui said Carib for 14 days this time of year. In last 2 weeks upwards of 40,000 people would've got off and on, around these islands. 

So, were the first cases on these islands brought by a cruise ship passenger? OR

Were the cases infected by someone from France visiting relatives on St Maarten (this island is split in half, French side and Dutch side)?

Cruise ships sailing 2/3 weeks ago would've already disembarked. Brit ships finish cruise in either Bridgetown barbados or St Lucia. American ships mainly Miami or Fort Lauderdale. Could the spike in the US have been invigorated by returning cruise ship passengers?

Brit cruises tend to be overwhelmingly Brit customers, whereas ships out of the US are more multi-national. 

One to watch.

[swebby]

19 minutes ago, Beanz said:

What’s your source on that figure? 

WHO China report is here

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

Page 12 covers their estimates of crude* CFR.  2% is not in there, so i am splitting the difference between China as a whole (3.8%) and China excluding Wuhan figures (0.7%). This is a very crude extrapolation on my part to get an upper estimate.  The crude CFR for Wuhan is (5.8%) skews the overall figure and is the cautionary tale of what happens when a reasonably well equipped health service gets swamped with initial poor containment. The UK public are probably not yet appreciative that the UK government will move Heaven and Earth to avoid a Wuhan type of situation (inter city travel bans, closures on institutions) as 1 in 20 of your electorate shuffling off the mortal coil is not good for you come polling day.

Now, it is important to say that in my entirely inexpert and personal opinion, CFR is likely to be much much nearer to the 0.7% given for the rest of China. In fact for any nation with a decent quality healthcare service i would expect it to be a lot lower than 0.7%.  The WHO themselves say their crude* estimates will be subject to biases, and the novel situation that Wuhan found itself in will have skewed the figures.  The initial figures that came out of Italy were worryingly high, but they seem to dropping off now and someone posted on here that Italy's case figures were only covering hospital admissions.  For countries with less satisfactory health care systems, the figures could be very nasty.

*crude means that it is acknowledging that they themselves are making extrapolations to get a CFR, as this is something that can only be genuinely calculated after an epidemic has finished.