Novel Coronavirus – China

[Snowy L]

15 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

That sounds rather ominous . If it’s not passed in the normal way with most transmission by either larger droplets from coughs or sneezes or alternatively surface transmission then that’s a major escalation. If the implication is people can transmit it by simple breathing next to someone then that’s awful .

 

I think the method of transmission is similar to that of influenza. The thing that makes it different to influenza is the following:

. A huge percentage of cases are asymptomatic so people go about their business while spreading it to others.

. You are infectious in the incubation stage of the virus  and this virus has a long incubation period. The average incubation period is 7 days and you can be infectious as early as 12 hours after first catching the disease so again that's a good 6 days where you're feeling fine and going on as normal before you're detected and isolated from the public.

My memory's not great on influenza but I believe there are asymptomatic cases, but not as many as covid19 and there is some infectivity between first catching the disease and onset of symptoms, but only for 1 or 2 days, not 6.

 

Edited March 2, 2020 by Snowy L

[nick sussex]

5 minutes ago, Paul said:

They have already:

From this page:

Q&A on coronaviruses (COVID-19)

WWW.WHO.INT

---

WHO is continuously monitoring and responding to this outbreak. This Q&A will be updated as more is known about COVID-19, how it spreads and how it is affecting...

Not to say they won't change that, as it mentions above, but in the meantime it's probably better not to read between the lines of what someone is saying as quite 2+2=5 when doing that sort of thing. 

The thing is Paul, that transmission is very similar to what you’d expect with flu so why would the chief of WHO come out with comments that suggest it’s more easier to transmit than flu .

PS many thanks Snowy L for your reply and that info.

Edited March 2, 2020 by nick sussex

[Snipper]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think they need to be more explicit as to how they’ve come to this conclusion . But of course on the other hand if it’s the case that transmission can occur more easily then panic could really break out amongst the public .

But once the head of WHO has made those comments he’s really likely to cause panic anyway !

It was made clear that no one scenario fits all. Not in China nor elsewhere. Draconian measure in one area in China where it started and other areas much less rigorous, which is being seen in other parts of the world. 

[Sky Full]

This virus does seem to be easily tranmissable and therefore it could eventually spread to all parts of the globe and affect many millions of people.  But has it affected you yet?  I wonder if people are thinking twice about booking holidays in Italy, for example, or even other European countries which are also affected.  Are you perhaps thinking of cancelling some future travel arrangements?  How will the airports respond in Europe if many more thousands of people catch the virus?  Would you wear a face mask in public given that they are pretty ineffective?  There are inevitably reports of people stockpiling food which seems ridiculous now, but what if food supplies are affected because thousands of people have to take time off work?  Personally I believe that pretty soon it will be in every part of the UK and there is nothing we can do about it except maintain personal hygiene and hope we don't catch it...... 

[alexisj9]

17 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

That sounds rather ominous . If it’s not passed in the normal way with most transmission by either larger droplets from coughs or sneezes or alternatively surface transmission then that’s a major escalation. If the implication is people can transmit it by simple breathing next to someone then that’s awful .

 

Would explain the cruise ship, this way it could have easily used the air conditioning to infect everyone. 

[alexisj9]

13 minutes ago, saint said:

Not just Ocado. A friend works for a supermarket and the number of items ordered online over the weekend is double that of the same time last year. 
 

They have also had several people going into store asking for cases of hand sanitizers and hand wipes - of which they’ve already sold out of anyway. 

Ci have medical grade at home due to having to use it, comes on prescription, well complimentary with it. 

[Paul]

12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The thing is Paul, that transmission is very similar to what you’d expect with flu so why would the chief of WHO come out with comments that suggest it’s more easier to transmit than flu .

There are numerous reasons I'd imagine - maybe it's because (based on their faq's linked above) it lasts from a few hours to a few days on surfaces. Whereas flu is about 24 hours tops I believe. Maybe it's related to the viral load count in droplets for some people. Maybe it's that people can still spread it when their symptoms are very mild, which increases risk as they may not be aware they have an illness at that point (again using info from their faq's). 

Without more information from them (which I'm sure will be forthcoming at some point), it's all conjecture though. But there's nothing in what he's said or the advice given by the WHO, NHS etc that suggests it's not spread mostly by droplets at this point.

Edited March 2, 2020 by Paul

[thundercrazy]

4 minutes ago, Paul said:

There are numerous reasons I'd imagine - maybe it's because (based on their faq's linked above) it lasts from a few hours to a few days on surfaces. Whereas flu is about 24 hours tops I believe. Maybe it's related to the viral load count in droplets for some people. Maybe it's that people can still spread it when their symptoms are very mild, which increases risk as they may not be aware they have an illness at that point (again using info from their faq's). 

Without more information from them (which I'm sure will be forthcoming at some point), it's all conjecture though. But there's nothing in what he's said or the advice given by the WHO, NHS etc that suggests it's not spread mostly by droplets at this point.

just seen this:

The public is being urged to clean their smartphone screens with alcohol wipes twice a day to help prevent the spread of the coronavirus. 

Covid-19, which has infected almost 80,000 people globally, has the ability to lurk on the flat surface for almost a week unless its disinfected, researchers have claimed. 

Oh lord!

[emax]

Personally, I think these comments from WHO people are picking up on, are blown way out of proportion.

I listened to the live press conference, and he said those comments calmly, and almost off the cuff sorta thing. It looks and sounds so much worse when a news outlet or twitter post or something paraphrases comments like that.

[Ryukai]

28 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

My memory's not great on influenza but I believe there are asymptomatic cases, but not as many as covid19 and there is some infectivity between first catching the disease and onset of symptoms, but only for 1 or 2 days, not 6.

I think I may have possibly been asymptomatic with the flu that was going around at Christmas, my niece and nephew both came down with it from their school, my sister and her fiancé then came down with it, my mother (who had had the jab) then was helping out looking after the kids and she came down with it (ended up with pneumonia and is still having problems with a persistent cough even now), she passed it onto her friends and boyfriend, and then there was me, not even a sniffle.  I was on a training course at the time and all the people on the course started to come down with it, but again I was perfectly fine.

Strangely enough though I haven't had flu for about 4/5 years now (figured I was due to get it this year at least) but the last one I did have was a right doozy, mother had to help me out of bed (and to stand and walk straight) just to go to the loo.  Hope I never get one like that again

Edited March 2, 2020 by Ryukai

[Snipper]

2 minutes ago, emax said:

Personally, I think these comments from WHO people are picking up on, are blown way out of proportion.

I listened to the live press conference, and he said those comments calmly, and almost off the cuff sorta thing. It looks and sounds so much worse when a news outlet or twitter post or something paraphrases comments like that.

Yes.  I wonder how many watched it all.  At least we know where Chinese whispers come from. 

[emax]

6 minutes ago, thundercrazy said:

just seen this:

The public is being urged to clean their smartphone screens with alcohol wipes twice a day to help prevent the spread of the coronavirus. 

Covid-19, which has infected almost 80,000 people globally, has the ability to lurk on the flat surface for almost a week unless its disinfected, researchers have claimed. 

Oh lord!

Thats obvious surely? Touchscreens of any kind are rife for virus and illnesses etc etc. I've always thought touchscreens in food outlets are a completely bonkers idea. You may as well order your food and eat it in the public toilet!!

Edited March 2, 2020 by emax

[emax]

Just now, Snipper said:

Yes.  I wonder how many watched it all.  At least we know where Chinese whispers come from. 

As well all know (well not all, must most thankfully), news and media outlets love paraphrasing headlines and comments, and although the comments are true, it dun arf make a difference to the meaning of them depending on how they're written!

[Gael_Force]

31 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

That sounds rather ominous . If it’s not passed in the normal way with most transmission by either larger droplets from coughs or sneezes or alternatively surface transmission then that’s a major escalation. If the implication is people can transmit it by simple breathing next to someone then that’s awful .

 

I think it was telling when they discovered the community infection in California. Patient transferred from hospital with droplet protection in place but immediately transferred to negative pressure facility on diagnosis. 

[thundercrazy]

1 minute ago, emax said:

Thats obvious surely? Touchscreens of any kind are riff for virus and illnesses etc etc. I've always thought touchscreens in food outlets are a completely bonkers idea. You may as well order your food and eat it in the public toilet!!

I was more refering to the length of time the virus can survive on the surface, nearly a week.

[Summer Sun]

4 minutes ago, emax said:

Thats obvious surely? Touchscreens of any kind are rife for virus and illnesses etc etc. I've always thought touchscreens in food outlets are a completely bonkers idea. You may as well order your food and eat it in the public toilet!!

Same in supermarkets with trolleys and baskets they're a haven for germs.

[Snipper]

6 minutes ago, emax said:

As well all know (well not all, must most thankfully), news and media outlets love paraphrasing headlines and comments, and although the comments are true, it dun arf make a difference to the meaning of them depending on how they're written!

How about this for misinformation.  Mail with a graph headed Corona Virus cases. 

[emax]

8 minutes ago, thundercrazy said:

I was more refering to the length of time the virus can survive on the surface, nearly a week.

Oh right, that was talked about weeks ago I think. I got the impression 3 to 5 days was fairly standard for this sort of virus, so up to a week at worst case isnt surprising. It does all depend on conditions though. As I understand it, I think UV light is the biggest killer of the virus, so cold and dark it can live for a while

[nick sussex]

6 minutes ago, emax said:

Oh right, that was talked about weeks ago I think. I got the impression 3 to 5 days was fairly standard for this sort of virus, so up to a week at worst case isnt surprising. It does all depend on conditions though. As I understand it, I think UV light is the biggest killer of the virus, so cold and dark it can live for a while

Yes I read that aswell . Summer can’t come soon enough !

[Bristawl Si]

19 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Same in supermarkets with trolleys and baskets they're a haven for germs.

Yep. I said this the other week in this thread. Over last year or so i always wash hands as soon as i get home from shopping. The other one is the trays at security in airports; forget the duty free browse, straight to the restroom to wash hands.

[Methuselah]

56 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Maybe, but then again reports and pictures last week from the hotel, indicated it wasnt exactly controlled quarantine.

The warm weather 'theory' may be true; a professor on itv this morning said he thought it will die down during late Spring and Summer, but he is increasingly of the opinion that it will re-appear next late Autumn/Winter, just like seasonal flu. Oh joy!

What worries me about that is that, like seasonal flu, it might mutate whilst lying dormant?

[Lauren]

2 hours ago, Snow Queen one said:

First case of Covid-19 reported in Maidstone.  Near me.

It's actually a member of our staff, but thankfully no one in my team. All seems to be under control though.

[Bristawl Si]

32 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

I think I may have possibly been asymptomatic with the flu that was going around at Christmas, my niece and nephew both came down with it from their school, my sister and her fiancé then came down with it, my mother (who had had the jab) then was helping out looking after the kids and she came down with it (ended up with pneumonia and is still having problems with a persistent cough even now), she passed it onto her friends and boyfriend, and then there was me, not even a sniffle.  I was on a training course at the time and all the people on the course started to come down with it, but again I was perfectly fine.

Strangely enough though I haven't had flu for about 4/5 years now (figured I was due to get it this year at least) but the last one I did have was a right doozy, mother had to help me out of bed (and to stand and walk straight) just to go to the loo.  Hope I never get one like that again

Contracted flu 20 years ago at Christmas. Went out from work at 3 on afternoon on day before Xmas eve. Felt perfectly normal and well. 2 hours later - bang! Achy, sweating, high temperature, feeling sick (not the beer). Went straight home to bed. Next day i couldnt believe how ill i felt. High temp, chest infection, lower backache, no appetite at all. Like this for nearly a week. Totally different from a heavy cold; never lose my appetite with a cold. 2 months later still had a cough.

From then on always had free flu jab at work; last few years paid for one at Superdrug.

[Snipper]

3 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Yep. I said this the other week in this thread. Over last year or so i always wash hands as soon as i get home from shopping. The other one is the trays at security in airports; forget the duty free browse, straight to the restroom to wash hands.

Have hand sanitiser in your car so as soon as you get back in from a trip out you can do your hands before touching the steering wheel, switches etc.

Feeling smug as I bought about a gallon of hand sanitiser ages ago. 
 

As my doctor said, when we were chatting about the outbreak, do your best to protect yourself but if your God wants you there is not a lot you can do about it. 

[Summer Sun]

Death toll in Italy rises to 52