Novel Coronavirus – China

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

Edited February 26, 2020 by Wiltshire_snow_lover

[DAVID SNOW]

3 minutes ago, Wiltshire_snow_lover said:

 

Breaking news..... I'm off to bed.

[Bristawl Si]

15 minutes ago, Wiltshire_snow_lover said:

Knowing Goodhall's political leanings i suspect he's decided to highlight one scenario from government scenario planning for a number of possible outcomes of severity of this strain of CV. Yes, highlighted the most dramatic one.

I'm currently watching Peston and Justine Greening decided to stick a knife into current government policy around CV.

Edited February 26, 2020 by Bristle boy

[alexisj9]

11 minutes ago, Wiltshire_snow_lover said:

I'm no expert, however surely if such measures need to be taken, wouldn't crimation make more sense, as beried bodies could still spread virus. 

[Gael_Force]

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, Wiltshire_snow_lover said:

That is pretty grim reading.

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

 

Well that is escalating fast in south korea

[Summer Sun]

Two people who returned from Italy and Tenerife have tested positive in England. One has been transferred to the Royal Free Hospital in London.

Edited February 27, 2020 by Summer Sun

[Bristawl Si]

Interesting live piece on Lorraine just now, with Dr Hilary talking to a couple live from their hotel room in 'that' Tenerife hotel.

He was scathing of the so-called quarantine; mass quarantine he called it as guests can freely mingle, queue for food, rather than it being brought to their rooms. V little self-isolation going on. Basically a cop-out by the Tenerife/Spanish authorities - not a clue!

I'll reiterate what i said yesterday about this particular 'case' - the local authorities in Adeje are just keeping them all in there, so the rest of the resort (and island) can function 'normally'. Sorry state of affairs - manyana, maybe.

Edit: Oh, and Dr H said that wearing masks as 'protection'? Dont bother, useless.

Edited February 27, 2020 by Bristle boy

[weirpig]

I think Grey Wolf   Many weeks ago posted  a chart which  showed how quick the virus could spread  based on the parameters at the time   is there a update on that chart anywhere?.

Edited February 27, 2020 by weirpig

[Snipper]

11 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

.

Edit: Oh, and Dr H said that wearing masks as 'protection'? Dont bother, useless.

Probably only benefit it reminds you not to touch your face. 

Edited February 27, 2020 by Snipper

[Methuselah]

Dr David Snow is out-and-about...Reports incoming!  

 

[Summer Sun]

Burbage Primary School in Buxton has closed after a pupil's parent tested positive for coronavirus.

[Astral Goat Juice]

Sky news reporting two more cases in UK - One related to Italy, and the other Tenerife.

Prime Minister Abe (Japan) just announced all schools to be closed from the 2nd March until Spring. 

It's just the flu...… 

[Dreckly]

Coronavirus Mortality Rate (COVID-19) - Worldometer

WWW.WORLDOMETERS.INFO

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Death Rate (Case Fatality Rate, CFR) early estimates for the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) originating from Wuhan, China

 

[swebby]

13 hours ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

But you are reading it wrong. 

Headline: Will I try paid if I take sick leave? 

This isnt sick leave. You're not even sick. The Goverment has told you to self quarantine because you think you might have the virus. When you are tested, you didnt have it, your not sick at all, you just complied with the law. Not sure how else to spell it out?

This one on the beeb seems a little clearer, and does seem to confirm what you are saying AG.

Coronavirus: Will I get paid if I self-isolate?

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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Health Secretary Matt Hancock says Britons returning from locked-down Italian towns must self-isolate.

Would you have a link you are able to post for the legislation that would cover pay for self quarantine? The 1984 control of disease act seems to cover the ability for authorities to order self quarantine (and also compensation for some businesses) but not seeing much about employees rights.

 

[Gael_Force]

I dread to think what the Red Top brigade will use in their headlines....

Being serious, it actually agrees with the Indian study which was pulled rather quickly. That's an ugly recipe but may offer more options for therapeutics.

Quote

 

 The new coronavirus has an HIV-like mutation that means its ability to bind with human cells could be up to 1,000 times as strong as the Sars virus, according to new research by scientists in China and Europe.

The discovery could help to explain not only how the infection has spread but also where it came from and how best to fight it.

Scientists showed that Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome) entered the human body by binding with a receptor protein called ACE2 on a cell membrane. And some early studies suggested that the new coronavirus, which shares about 80 per cent of the genetic structure of Sars, might follow a similar path.

But the ACE2 protein does not exist in large quantities in healthy people, and this partly helped to limit the scale of the Sars outbreak of 2002-03, in which infected about 8,000 people around the world.

Other highly contagious viruses, including HIV and Ebola, target an enzyme called furin, which works as a protein activator in the human body. Many proteins are inactive or dormant when they are produced and have to be “cut” at specific points to activate their various functions.

Coronavirus more likely than Sars to bond to human cells, scientists say

WWW.SCMP.COM

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Research by team from Nankai University shows new virus has mutated gene similar to those found in HIV and Ebola.

 

Edited February 27, 2020 by Gael_Force

[swebby]

14 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Say you close the border what then do you also ban all flights from France to Italy . Will other countries be closing their borders . Will the UK be banning Italian nationals from entering the country or banning flights to the country . It’s really pointless unless all European countries take similar measures.

 

 

I think the border question is one about reassuring the public rather than effective containment.  Containment will be done by quarantine/lock down of areas towns etc, as already enacted in Northern Italy, but authorities may well want to introduce highly visibility border checks just to maintain the confidence of the public.

[weirpig]

ahh this was the one.  Not sure how it matches up now though  as ive lost track of the current figures.  edit  just looked think there have been 82 thousand cases     so ithink looking at that we are above this model?.

Edited February 27, 2020 by weirpig

[fujita5]

15 minutes ago, weirpig said:

ahh this was the one.  Not sure how it matches up now though  as ive lost track of the current figures.  edit  just looked think there have been 82 thousand cases     so ithink looking at that we are above this model?.

Current cumulative figures are 85,254 infections and 2,812 deaths.  This is where we'd expect to be in mid March based on the above - however this assumes the outbreak began on 1st December, and it's probable it began a while before that.

[swebby]

46 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

I dread to think what the Red Top brigade will use in their headlines....

Being serious, it actually agrees with the Indian study which was pulled rather quickly. That's an ugly recipe but may offer more options for therapeutics.

Coronavirus more likely than Sars to bond to human cells, scientists say

WWW.SCMP.COM

---

Research by team from Nankai University shows new virus has mutated gene similar to those found in HIV and Ebola.

 

Dreckly posted a good link to a virology blog the other day that goes into some detail on the inclusion of a furin cleavage site within the spike protein and how this may be key to the virus now being able to establish itself in humans so much better than SARS and MERS did - scroll down to 20th Feb "Pangolins and the origin of SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus"

19 hours ago, Dreckly said:

scroll for blog entries dated 20/23 Feb on origins of nCov

virology blog

WWW.VIROLOGY.WS

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About viruses and viral disease

 

 

[weirpig]

9 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

Current cumulative figures are 85,254 infections and 2,812 deaths.  This is where we'd expect to be in mid March based on the above - however this assumes the outbreak began on 1st December, and it's probable it began a while before that.

Yes  quite   but it does show how quick  the virus could spread if  it gets out of hand   On those figures  Christmas may be a bit of a drag   on a plus point  no Mother in Law 

Edited February 27, 2020 by weirpig

[Snipper]

28 minutes ago, swebby said:

I think the border question is one about reassuring the public rather than effective containment.  Containment will be done by quarantine/lock down of areas towns etc, as already enacted in Northern Italy, but authorities may well want to introduce highly visibility border checks just to maintain the confidence of the public.

PR exercise but might help to some degree. With migrants, in particular, prepared to flout any rules cannot see it being anything more than a sticking plaster. 

[thundercrazy]

This article on the BBC contains some disturbing claims, sounds like it will be business as normal until it's too late....
I've copied just the main interests, interpret this as you will

Article - Coronavirus: How is the UK planning for an outbreak? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-51632801

"The hope is it can still be contained
The government has said the UK is prepared for all eventualities.
Ministers and health officials are still working on being able to contain any outbreaks in the UK.
There has been no transmission within the UK, but even if there is, that does not mean containment is defeated.
So what happens if containment fails?
Containment should not be seen as a win-or-lose game. Even if it fails, it will have bought the UK valuable time. Scientists will be closer to a vaccine being developed and if containment lasts until the spring or summer, the milder weather will help.
There had been some hope the virus would find it harder to spread in warm weather - although the experience of other countries so far shows that is not the case.
Nonetheless, delaying an epidemic until the summer would have the added benefit that the NHS would not be under so much pressure to cope. It is currently in the midst of its most difficult winter for a generation.
Currently there is no treatment or cure, so hospitals are trying to relieve the symptoms. Specialist equipment called ECMO is available at a small number of units to support the most severely ill patients if their lungs fail.
Under the Civil Contingencies Act, the government can close schools, shut down public transport and stop mass gatherings to protect the public.
But all the evidence suggests those measures are not particularly effective at stopping the spread of something like coronavirus.
What is more, there has to be a balance between public safety and economic and social impacts.
Closing schools, for example, could disrupt exams and force parents to take time off work.
New legal powers have been given to force people to stay in quarantine. But this is a measure more about containment than a practical step that will be taken in the event of the virus becoming an epidemic in the UK.
The government and NHS simply do not have the facilities to contain many more than a few hundred people.
In the event of mass transmissions, responses will be co-ordinated at a central level by the government's Cobra committee and locally by 43 "resilience forums" in England and Wales."
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I know people keep saying there are thousands of deaths every year from seasonal flu but the rate is estimated to be 0.1%, if you do the maths on the current known cases 82526 divided by 100 and then times by the deaths 2812 that currently gives 3.4%

[swebby]

Also from the beeb

"Recovered patients testing positive again

Celia Hatton

BBC Asia Pacific Regional Editor

Chinese health officials say that about 14% of patients in Guangdong province who had the coronavirus but recovered and were discharged from hospital have tested positive for the virus again.

Health officials admit they're still learning about the new coronavirus and how it operates within the human body.

The same phenomenon has been reported in Japan, when a woman in her 40s who had recovered and tested negative for the virus then tested positive more than three weeks later.

The authorities in both countries have pledged to continue tracking former patients, even after they've been discharged from hospital."

Ok, this is weird and if true it means a number of things.

1) the virus is unusual and has a period(s) of dormancy.

and/or

2) Current assays are entirely unreliable.

It also means

3) "Recovered" patients being released from isolation without restrictions is a sure fire way to spread the virus.  How many were flown back from Hubei to the UK three weeks ago? More than 10 would mean odds are......