Novel Coronavirus – China

[Beverley Lass]

The Ireland v Italy men's and women's Six Nations games scheduled for Dublin on 7 and 8 March have been postponed because of the coronavirus.

[Bristawl Si]

Feel sorry for the tourists in the H10 hotel in Tenerife. Being kept there for 14 days. Cant help feeling a repeat of the cruise ship fiasco in Japan happening, as it will be a quarantine in name only. Problem with the Canaries, due to v low tax environ, is there are only a few state hospitals and they wont have other secure isolation units in their healthcare system, like the one here, in the Wirral, for example.

Edited February 26, 2020 by Bristle boy

[Gray-Wolf]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

im a realist...not a glass half empty person always touting doom and gloom where ever they can find it

?

So , much the same as the Giant Orange Blimp if you don't discuss it its not happening?

I just don't get that headspace at all?

I hear Edmonton declared its first cases today.......

EDIT: Beggar"! can't find it but found these;

http://c.newsnow.co.uk/A/1021371963?-49183:36126:latest_news#out

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2020/02/26/5th-presumptive-case-of-covid-19-in-ontario-ministry-of-health-says.html

https://torontosun.com/news/local-news/breaking-new-coronavirus-case-in-toronto

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2020/02/26/how-far-can-ontarios-health-authorities-go-to-stop-coronavirus-the-answer-is-further-than-you-may-think.html

EDIT:EDIT: what the CFR from this set of stats?

Iran 19 dead, 139 confirmed cases

Edited February 26, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[Dreckly]

scroll for blog entries dated 20/23 Feb on origins of nCov

virology blog

WWW.VIROLOGY.WS

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About viruses and viral disease

 

[Dreckly]

Functional assessment of cell entry and receptor usage for SARS-CoV-2

WWW.NATURE.COM

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This study describes the development of an approach to rapidly screen lineage B betacoronaviruses, such as SARS-CoV and the recently emerged SARS-CoV-2, for receptor usage and their ability to...

 

[CharmlessMan]

28 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Feel sorry for the tourists in the H10 hotel in Tenerife. Being kept there for 14 days. Cant help feeling a repeat of the cruise ship fiasco in Japan happening, as it will be a quarantine in name only. Problem with the Canaries, due to v low tax environ, is there are only a few state hospitals and they wont have other secure isolation units in their healthcare system, like the one here, in the Wirral, for example.

Me too, wouldn't like to be in their position.  Unfortunately this is the risk that anyone travelling abroad at the moment is taking. 

The concern (from the powers that be) isn't that the people within the quarantine zone might get infected, the concern is that if they aren't quarantined they will likely spread the disease.  Hence it's not for their benefit (quite the opposite in fact) it's for everybody else's.

 

[cyclonic happiness]

30 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

?

So , much the same as the Giant Orange Blimp if you don't discuss it its not happening?

I just don't get that headspace at all?

I hear Edmonton declared its first cases today.......

EDIT: Beggar"! can't find it but found these;

http://c.newsnow.co.uk/A/1021371963?-49183:36126:latest_news#out

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2020/02/26/5th-presumptive-case-of-covid-19-in-ontario-ministry-of-health-says.html

https://torontosun.com/news/local-news/breaking-new-coronavirus-case-in-toronto

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2020/02/26/how-far-can-ontarios-health-authorities-go-to-stop-coronavirus-the-answer-is-further-than-you-may-think.html

EDIT:EDIT: what the CFR from this set of stats?

Iran 19 dead, 139 confirmed cases

People just aren't getting it are they Grey?

It's not necessarily the disease itself that we're worried about, it's the response of the people, and the panic which 'will' hit Britain pretty soon.

The damage to the economy will be staggering for a start if even 30% of the country gets this bug, let alone the 60% projected.

 

The thing I fear the most, is that this will expose the fragility and unsustainable of the modern way of life, and if we get through this....we must change as a race! 

[Bristawl Si]

6 minutes ago, CharmlessMan said:

Me too, wouldn't like to be in their position.  Unfortunately this is the risk that anyone travelling abroad at the moment is taking. 

The concern (from the powers that be) isn't that the people within the quarantine zone might get infected, the concern is that if they aren't quarantined they will likely spread the disease.  Hence it's not for their benefit (quite the opposite in fact) it's for everybody else's.

 

But there is a big chance the Tenerife hotel is quarantine, in name only. Highly unlikely it is quarantine, as in NHS terms, a la The Wirral building. Probably more like the cruise ship in Japan - yikes!

[Gray-Wolf]

3 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

People just aren't getting it are they Grey?

It's not necessarily the disease itself that we're worried about, it's the response of the people, and the panic which 'will' hit Britain pretty soon.

The damage to the economy will be staggering for a start if even 30% of the country gets this bug, let alone the 60% projected.

 

The thing I fear the most, is that this will expose the fragility and unsustainable of the modern way of life, and if we get through this....we must change as a race! 

Thank you my good Dude!!!

This threat was present for H5N1/SARS/MERS/Ebola/H1N1 but luckily we got on top of all of those (not so much H1N1?) and I took flak each time I raised the spectre of how today's 'modern world' with its international flights/airports and 'Just in time economy' (using China as 'the factory of the world') was far too much 'all the Eggs in one basket' for a predictable disaster/crash not to occur!

Now it appears to be here none of those 'naysayers'  will rock up to offer their sincere apologies for the names they called me for my hypervigilance (nor accept the reasons 'Why' I am forced to be so?)

Really nice guys eh?

[cyclonic happiness]

1 minute ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Thank you my good Dude!!!

This threat was present for H5N1/SARS/MERS/Ebola/H1N1 but luckily we got on top of all of those (not so much H1N1?) and I took flak each time I raised the spectre of how today's 'modern world' with its international flights/airports and 'Just in time economy' (using China as 'the factory of the world') was far too much 'all the Eggs in one basket' for a predictable disaster/crash not to occur!

Now it appears to be here none of those 'naysayers'  will rock up to offer their sincere apologies for the names they called me for my hypervigilance (nor accept the reasons 'Why' I am forced to be so?)

Really nice guys eh?

fore warned is fore armed, as the saying goes.

 

[fujita5]

6 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

But there is a big chance the Tenerife hotel is quarantine, in name only. Highly unlikely it is quarantine, as in NHS terms, a la The Wirral building. Probably more like the cruise ship in Japan - yikes!

Nope.  It won't be anything like a quarantine.  People will be coming and going from rooms to bring supplies etc and won't be disinfected between rooms.  The air won't be prevented from mixing from room to room.  You can guarantee that if there's already a couple of rooms with the virus it'll spread quite effectively to others.   

[Gael_Force]

1 hour ago, swebby said:

I can not vouch for the accuracy or quality of the reporting below, but this tied in with the above stats coming out of Italy (30% hospitalisation, 10% requiring ICU) is real cause for concern.

New China coronavirus data buttress fears about high fatality rate - STAT

WWW.STATNEWS.COM

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The WHO official's claim was quickly challenged by an expert who said it would be highly unusual for there not to be mild cases that are being missed.

 

 

Re the doubt about non detected cases, this excerpt from French reporting caught my attention.

Quote

"Case number 13" concerns a young Chinese girl who returned from a trip to China on February 7. She is hospitalized in Paris. "She protected herself, she has had only four contacts in the past two days", contacts which will be "maintained at home", noted the professor who described the patient as "poor in symptoms", simply citing ailments of throat and cough.

To tell the truth, if it is indeed a new case, the girl is no longer sick as explained by Jérôme Salomon: "She has a very reassuring picture which has also caused much discussion about virologists since it is negative but with traces of recent healing. We have tests which even show that the person is no longer a carrier but has been, thanks to extremely sensitive tests. She is doing very well. have already tested her partner who is negative. "

She has presumably done her shedding and healing over the last 3 weeks without any detection. I would wager she is not an isolated case.

[Gray-Wolf]

2 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

fore warned is fore armed, as the saying goes.

 

This was always my take on it but "Not Listening,not listening " chanters do not want to hear it?

They'd rather stay in their happy clappy world until disaster is upon them and the blame the world for not letting them know ahead of times?

Human nature eh? 

I've always pigeon holed such folk as the most scared among us? (hence their 'not listening chanting?) The same with AGW, the same with Neolib global economics....... hey ho .....here we go!.....

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

im a realist...not a glass half empty person always touting doom and gloom where ever they can find it

Hopefully, unlike so many others, you'll nae be a 'coffin half-full' kinda guy?

[swebby]

6 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Re the doubt about non detected cases, this excerpt from French reporting caught my attention.

She has presumably done her shedding and healing over the last 3 weeks without any detection. I would wager she is not an isolated case.

Good catch, if the majority are only mildly symptomatic to the point of being asymptomatic then we are back in seasonal flu territory in terms of %'s needing critical care -  would be a very good outcome.

The results of the NHS random testing will make for interesting reading.

 

[Astral Goat Juice]

16 hours ago, nick sussex said:

It’s a bit unclear though . What legal certainty do people have they’ll be paid . Wouldn’t the government need to rush through some legislation . Because advise isn’t really sufficient I wouldn’t have thought .

Its statutory law. We have just had the course on this, and employers will have to pay you for the 14 days in full. This is coming directly from the Governments mouth.

[Astral Goat Juice]

14 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

Can you tell me more about the change to zero hour contracts in April, haven't heard anything. 

Yes, I'll PM you so we dont clog up the thread, but you will be getting "proper" contracts. 

[Astral Goat Juice]

9 hours ago, Selliso said:

 

I agree that it's unclear. Statutory sick pay doesn't equate to full pay, I think it's less than £100 per week and you have to earn a minimum per week to even be eligible.

It would also come down to how the employer / employee choose to treat the absence.

Those who can work from home should obvs be paid in full. If treated as sickness leave, it depends on your company's enhanced sick pay policy - you might only be entitled to statutory sick pay. Not to mention those who rely on regular overtime who would clearly see a reduction in pay. 

Sorry for the triple post but first time on since away. 

You are confusing what I said. You didnt have the Coronavirus, you wasnt sick, but you followed the statutory Government guidelines to self isolate for 14 days complying with law. 

There is no sick pay to consider and employers pay you in full for the absence or they are in breach should you take then to court.

[Selliso]

12 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

Sorry for the triple post but first time on since away. 

You are confusing what I said. You didnt have the Coronavirus, you wasnt sick, but you followed the statutory Government guidelines to self isolate for 14 days complying with law. 

There is no sick pay to consider and employers pay you in full for the absence or they are in breach should you take then to court.

Coronavirus: advice for employers and employees | Acas

WWW.ACAS.ORG.UK

---

Advice for employers and employees worried about coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK.

I think it's quite a bit less clear if you don't actually have the virus... 

[swebby]

15 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

Its statutory law. We have just had the course on this, and employers will have to pay you for the 14 days in full. This is coming directly from the Governments mouth.

I'm seeing lots of contradictory stuff about this.

This from the guardian

I’ve just returned from an affected part of northern Italy. I feel fine but I’m stuck at home. Will I still be paid?

Not necessarily, says Sarah Evans, an employment expert and partner at JMW Solicitors. Some people will come to an arrangement with their employer to work at home and they will paid as normal. “Increasingly, lots of employees can and will work at home. However, the problem comes if you work in a shop or a warehouse that requires your presence. The hard truth is that in this case your employer can send you home and is under no obligation to pay you. For a small company, having an unproductive member of staff sitting a home doing nothing on full pay will be a huge burden.”

Basically - if you are sick, you are entitled to pay, which seems straight forward. But if you are not sick but merely self quarantined then you are not? And looking after a child at home due to school closures then you are definitely not?

Coronavirus UK: will I get paid if I take sick leave? | World news | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

---

What you need to know if you are told to self-isolate or your child is sent home from school

 

[Bristawl Si]

33 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

Its statutory law. We have just had the course on this, and employers will have to pay you for the 14 days in full. This is coming directly from the Governments mouth.

You say "We have just had the course on this"....

Who is "We"?

And just cropped up on news feeds, incl Sky News -

Guests at 'the hotel' in Tenerife are free to wander, including the pool area, and pics appearing of guests in the pool, so any virus will surely 'do the rounds'.

Like i said in earlier posts that hotel aint no quarantine. It might be a Canarian Spanish 'quarantine', but it defo aint a NHS England quarantine.

Edited February 26, 2020 by Bristle boy

[swebby]

10 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

You say "We have just had the course on this"....

Who is "We"?

And just cropped up on news feeds, incl Sky News -

Guests at 'the hotel' in Tenerife are free to wander, including the pool area, and pics appearing of guests in the pool, so any virus will surely 'do the rounds'.

Like i said in earlier posts that hotel aint no quarantine. It might be a Canarian Spanish 'quarantine', but it defo aint a NHS England quarantine.

Sounds like Diamond Princess MkII. 

[swebby]

Reports on various news outlets that Pakistan have announced their first two confirmed case, one of which is a 22 y.o. that had recently arrived from Iran.

One of the cases is in Karachi - population 15+ million!

[Bristawl Si]

45 minutes ago, swebby said:

Sounds like Diamond Princess MkII. 

Additional pictures and reports of guests standing in food queues in hotel restaurant, just like on a 'normal' holiday.

It aint no quarantine; it is purely an isolation 'job' by the Tenerife authorities to try to contain virus spread to the hotel, so as not to ruin the resort and risk resort or even island closure. Simple as.

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Additional pictures and reports of guests standing in food queues in hotel restaurant, just like on a 'normal' holiday.

It aint no quarantine; it is purely an isolation 'job' by the Tenerife authorities to try to contain virus spread to the hotel, so as not to ruin the resort and risk resort or even island closure. Simple as.

What's the difference between completely isolating a group of people, to a given area, and quarantining them?