Novel Coronavirus – China

[Gray-Wolf]

8 minutes ago, pip22 said:

Italy's cases have reached 100 now. 117 cases so far. So Europe has a first epicenter now in Northern Italy.   Not good.

Meanwhile in South Korea it reached 600 cases!!!

It surely is worth repeating that every single case we see has been shedding virus for a number of days before the onset of symptoms.

If we stick at '10 days' for this 'incubation' and accept that around 80% of those infected never present you begin to see the scale of the developing crisis in places like Italy/S.Korea/Singapore? It will be a number of days before the 20% of those infected (that need care?) by those now in care present themselves?

Again we really need to know the CFR for if we are to see 60% to 70% of the globe infected then the numbers of the 20% that need treatment, and the CFR (if between 2% and 10%?), will be enormous (cumulatively) and overwhelming over 'peak infection' when we see a glut of cases arising over a 4 to 6 week period?

My 'naysayers' will know that for 2 decades I have cautioned about the scale of impacts a global contagion must drive. I honestly believe that this is 'the one' when I look at its speed of development and how quickly the globe is becoming infected?

[Snipper]

I’m prepared!

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Past Time to Tell the Public: “It Will Probably Go Pandemic, and We Should All Prepare Now”

VIROLOGYDOWNUNDER.COM

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by Jody Lanard and Peter M. Sandman NOTE FROM IAN: The expert risk communication team of Lanard and Sandman has given me permission to...

Health officials expect coronavirus to spread worldwide

NEWS.HARVARD.EDU

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Latest updates on the new coronavirus from a Facebook Live event sponsored by the Forum at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and PRI’s The World.

Covid-19 is now a pandemic, says Leuven specialist

WWW.BRUSSELSTIMES.COM

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The outbreak of the Covid-19 coronavirus has now reached the proportions of a pandemic, according to Professor Marc Van Ranst, the epidemiologist in charge...

 

Edited February 23, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

How the heck will we manage this if it becomes 'common practice'?

How will employers deal with such extended absenteeism?

Coronavirus: Wuhan to quarantine all cured patients for 14 days after some test positive again

WWW.SCMP.COM

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Recovered and discharged people were sent to designated centres from Saturday onwards Decision follows several instances in which recovered patients...

Edit: 14 days if you are 'suspected' of being in contact, over 3 weeks vin ICU/HD wards if you're taken badly, then 14 days to make sure you're not spreading....

Edited February 23, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

 

[Gray-Wolf]

I wonder how Iran now feel about their open invitation to China to have folk spend 'Chinese New Year' there?

I seem to recall the regime extending the invitation post the Iranian attacks on the U.S. bases in Jan ( after the U.S. offed their general in the drone attack in Iraq?) and China offered their solidarity to the regime?

[pip22]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgylp3Td1Bw

This is a good YT channel to see the live figures. 

[Gray-Wolf]

On 15/02/2020 at 15:21, Snipper said:

It remains puzzling why China has been hit so hard. Because a big pool of cases built up before they did anything much?  Or what?

Don’t want to be lulled into a false sense of security  

 

Well let's see how Italy do with controlling spread?

They've been pretty hot on clamping down after patient zero (there?) was hospitalised?

Problem being , as I keep on posting, the horse has already bolted by the time 'patient zero' hauls their butts to the hospital...

[Gray-Wolf]

https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/445449/Iran-confirms-43-COVID-19-cases-8-dead

 

So why are Iran seeing such a huge CFR?

Could they be telling porkies about case numbers perhaps?

[Gray-Wolf]

S Korea declares highest alert over coronavirus

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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The president says the country faces "a grave turning point" and the next few days will be crucial.

 

[Gael_Force]

 

[Gray-Wolf]

So sad to see this G.F.

So many of the health care workers are suffering from the disease they are tasked to deal with?

Will we see the same in our care workers once covid-19 is fully expressed here in the UK?

I suppose we see how Italy copes as there are real concerns that staff levels will already be suffering loses before we enter 'peak infection' allowing the easier collapse of care over that period?

Should this occur then ailments that hospitals normally cope with will instead lead to fatalities? (hospitalised flu case/cardiac/stroke cases/RTA's etc etc?) 

Edited February 23, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

 

[Spikecollie]

This is becoming like one of my nightmares - loads of articles from vets now mentioning companion animals. I would simply shut myself away and wait it out if there was a real and present threat here to Mylo and I. We've enough of a garden to get exercise in. I would never knowingly let anything hurt my beloved, innocent lad and that includes his Mummy Bear getting too sick to look after him.

COVID-19 and potential animal hosts | Worms & Germs Blog

WWW.WORMSANDGERMSBLOG.COM

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Viruses need to attach to cells to infect them, and they do this by binding to specific receptors on the cell. If a virus can’t attach, it can’t infect.

 

[Dreckly]

1 hour ago, Spikecollie said:

This is becoming like one of my nightmares - loads of articles from vets now mentioning companion animals. I would simply shut myself away and wait it out if there was a real and present threat here to Mylo and I. We've enough of a garden to get exercise in. I would never knowingly let anything hurt my beloved, innocent lad and that includes his Mummy Bear getting too sick to look after him.

COVID-19 and potential animal hosts | Worms & Germs Blog

WWW.WORMSANDGERMSBLOG.COM

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Viruses need to attach to cells to infect them, and they do this by binding to specific receptors on the cell. If a virus can’t attach, it can’t infect.

 

From WHO:

Myth busters

WWW.WHO.INT

 

[Gray-Wolf]

I think we do new research first and W.H.O. second Dreckly?

Like with AGW it's 'New Research' first and IPCC (if you like the expurgated version of things that's at least over 5 years old at time of going to press?) second?

[Dreckly]

https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30171-9

[Summer Sun]

4 of the 32 who returned from Tokyo yesterday have tested positive for coronavirus whilst Italy have confirmed a 3rd death from the virus.

[pip22]

Italy has 157 cases now. It has now surpassed Japan's number of cases of 147. Italy is the third most infected country now after S.Korea and China.

[Dreckly]

SARS-Cov-2 (2019-nCoV) Antigen Reagents

WWW.SINOBIOLOGICAL.COM

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Sino Biological develops SARS-Cov-2 (2019-nCoV) viral antigen research reagents, including Spike protein, NP protein。

 

[Zak M]

Not sure if anyone has mentioned this yet, but football matches in Italy were scheduled today but now they've been canceled due to the coronavirus having a significant rise in the country.

Edited February 23, 2020 by Zak M

[lottiekent]

Wuhan to quarantine recovered patients after some test positive again:

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3051966/coronavirus-wuhan-quarantine-all-cured-patients-14-days-after

Edited February 23, 2020 by lottiekent

[Cakie]

Hi guys, can we keep this to the topic please

The lounge is available for light hearted relief to the serious stuff

[Snipper]

4 minutes ago, Cakie said:

Hi guys, can we keep this to the topic please

The lounge is available for light hearted relief to the serious stuff

Sorry that my brief light heated posting yesterday has upset some.
 

Yes I appreciate the seriousness as I am a prime candidate for ending up dead if it gets out of hand. 

[Methuselah]

I know precisely how serious COVID-19 is likely to be, as I'm one of those who're more susceptible than most. Age matters!

That said, I think I'd rather shuffle off this mortal coil with my sense-of-humour still intact, than spend my last, say 6-months or 25-years, in a constant state of 'doomsday readiness'...Is life not too short as it is?