Novel Coronavirus – China

[emax]

14 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I think we need wait until the 'max' incubation period has passed before patting ourselves on the back?

If our chief medical bods are of the opinion we are only catching 1 out of 3 folk arriving here carrying the virus then we not only need to allow incubation but also, for the poor unfortunates that are taken so, serious cases presenting?

We are in the 'eye of the storm' IMHO?

2 weeks from now we will know if it's here or not and so act accordingly

Its been 3 weeks since the first confirmed case in Europe. The average incubation period is 3-5days roughly, and possibility (not confirmed) of 1 in every 1000 people taking 24-28days. I'm not saying anything is definite, and it really does need to be a month before we have some answers, but if 999 people out of 1000 incubate it for 1-14 days, then we really should be seeing cases rise by now.......thats if this virus even affects us in the same way of course.

[Guest Delete Me]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1227360445821898752

[Gray-Wolf]

Are you really saying that you are waiting for cases from the early days of the spread but choose to ignore what we have all seen over the last 3 weeks?

Where did our ' uber spreader' catch his dose?

How many 'Winter Sun' folk have travelled back from international Hubs that may have been contaminated by the virus this past 3 weeks?

Let's wait a while and not call this 'all over' before it's even begun eh?

EDIT: Again I would urge folk to see the BBC4 'experiment' on the spread of a contagion (on IPlayer right now!) before they make any grand statements...... but only if you dare entertain 'facts' that is?

Edited February 14, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[Guest Delete Me]

Incubation period is averaging near 6 days at the moment but there have been cases upto a month in duration.

Just because we haven't really seen an explosion of cases here in Europe doesn't mean that we won't, give it time.

[emax]

2 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Are you really saying that you are waiting for cases from the early days of the spread but chose to ignore what we have all seen over the last 3 weeks?

Where did our ' uber spreader' catch his dose?

How many 'Winter Sun' folk have travelled back from international Hubs that may have been contaminated by the virus this past 3 weeks?

Let's wait a while and not call this 'all over' before it's begun eh?

Ignore what from the last 3 weeks lol?

I really dont understand why you get so aggressive and jump to conclusions. No where have I said its all over, although I note I have seen posters here suggesting civilisation is over, are you confusing me with that?

I'm just dealing with facts, not hearsay, not beliefs, just facts. Now the facts can change as more info comes to light, which is exactly why you should keep an open mind about it. However, the current facts are, the average time is 3-5days, SO, with 3 weeks having passed, it IS surprising that there arent more cases in Europe and Rest of the World. (Japan doesnt count as a cruise ship is hardly surprising).

 

I'll say it again just in case, I DONT THINK ITS OVER lol and we need another month at least to have any solid answers to which way this is heading, BUT, at the moment at least, its on simmer........

[Gray-Wolf]

This is why I say we are 'in the eye of the storm' Paul?

I honestly believe it is out there , in the UK, now and spreading day upon day?

If true then we have a lot of red faces on here......but less in the experts community that are cautioning us that this is the reality?

I guess some folk just NEED to see the corpse before they accept the facts eh?

Anyhoo's, just how many folk have travelled through Far Eastern International Airport Hubs since China began locking down 500 million people? 

[emax]

7 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:

Incubation period is averaging near 6 days at the moment but there have been cases upto a month in duration.

Just because we haven't really seen an explosion of cases here in Europe doesn't mean that we won't, give it time.

The latest data showed 3-5days, with only 1 out of 1000 being 28days I think it was, but at the time there was deliberation as to whether the 1 person counted at 28 days was even accurate.

Is there new data again, and if so, can you share it please? I'll happily concede if there's new evidence?

[Bristawl Si]

28 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

below the belt and unnecessary... this is the real world and literally life and death that we are talking about 

No it's not. No worse than flu.

[Gray-Wolf]

Just now, emax said:

Ignore what from the last 3 weeks lol?

I really dont understand why you get so aggressive and jump to conclusions. No where have I said its all over, although I note I have seen posters here suggesting civilisation is over, are you confusing me with that?

I'm just dealing with facts, not hearsay, not beliefs, just facts. Now the facts can change as more info comes to light, which is exactly why you should keep an open mind about it. However, the current facts are, the average time is 3-5days, SO, with 3 weeks having passed, it IS surprising that there arent more cases in Europe and Rest of the World. (Japan doesnt count as a cruise ship is hardly surprising).

 

I'll say it again just in case, I DONT THINK ITS OVER lol and we need another month at least to have any solid answers to which way this is heading, BUT, at the moment at least, its on simmer........

I'm sorry but I think you may be 'projecting' upon my words and not reading them as posted?

If you met with me you would see that 'aggressive' is not part of my mojo.....I don't have the energy for a start!!!

We wait, hopefully we 'protect' ourselves in the meantime, and we find out just what this thing means to us all?

 

[emax]

13 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

This is why I say we are 'in the eye of the storm' Paul?

I honestly believe it is out there , in the UK, now and spreading day upon day?

If true then we have a lot of red faces on here......but less in the experts community that are cautioning us that this is the reality?

I guess some folk just NEED to see the corpse before they accept the facts eh?

Anyhoo's, just how many folk have travelled through Far Eastern International Airport Hubs since China began locking down 500 million people? 

At least 50% of me says that its already here, and in massive numbers, but affects us so mildly, that its not being recorded/noticed. We will see soon, but even if this theory is stuff of dreams, it would be the best outcome overall.

[Gray-Wolf]

We just need to pin down 'mortality rate' and the projected 'peak infection' period

Things will get gnarly when we are in peak infection and I wish everybody well over that period

[emax]

1 minute ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Things will get gnarly when we are in peak infection and I wish everybody well over that period

Very true, the hysteria the news and social media will fuel, will do as much harm as the virus possibly could.

[Guest Delete Me]

23:10: 2,420 new cases and 139 new deaths in Hubei province, China.

[Guest Delete Me]

A 65-year-old woman was diagnosed with new coronary pneumonia 42 days after returning to Shanxi from Wuhan On February 9th, the official website of the Health and Health Committee of Jinzhong City, Shanxi Province informed the city the track of diagnosed cases as of February 7th at 24:00.

Peng Mei News (www.thepaper.cn) noticed that a 65-year-old female patient with neo-coronary pneumonia had been treated for 40 days after returning to Shanxi from Wuhan, and was diagnosed two days later.

Jinzhong Municipal Health and Health Committee reported that case 22, female, 65 years old, now lives in Sujiabao Village, Dujiazhuang Township, Pingyao County. Take a plane KY3004 from Wuhan to Taiyuan on December 25, 2019, and take a taxi to Pingyao on December 26. On January 1, 2020, he returned to his home in Sujiabao Village by private car. On February 3, 120 received the county people's hospital for treatment.

The diagnosis was confirmed on February 5.

[Gray-Wolf]

8 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:

A 65-year-old woman was diagnosed with new coronary pneumonia 42 days after returning to Shanxi from Wuhan On February 9th, the official website of the Health and Health Committee of Jinzhong City, Shanxi Province informed the city the track of diagnosed cases as of February 7th at 24:00.

Peng Mei News (www.thepaper.cn) noticed that a 65-year-old female patient with neo-coronary pneumonia had been treated for 40 days after returning to Shanxi from Wuhan, and was diagnosed two days later.

Jinzhong Municipal Health and Health Committee reported that case 22, female, 65 years old, now lives in Sujiabao Village, Dujiazhuang Township, Pingyao County. Take a plane KY3004 from Wuhan to Taiyuan on December 25, 2019, and take a taxi to Pingyao on December 26. On January 1, 2020, he returned to his home in Sujiabao Village by private car. On February 3, 120 received the county people's hospital for treatment.

The diagnosis was confirmed on February 5.

It's almost as though somebody thought " how do you create an unstoppable virus?"

Asymptomatic spread,

Long incubation whilst actively seeding the virus around the planet,

A reliable malcontent input to 'social Media' demonising all that try to enlighten brothers/sisters......

[Cheshire Freeze]

I was speaking to a mate who works in the NHS and he told me that A&E is currently full of people with colds, flu and throat infections wanting to be tested for corona virus. It is putting a massive strain on them already, also spreading our well established and endemic viruses round more easily.

 

[Bristawl Si]

Tonight's bombshell China story! From the FT - China offers to build HS2 in 5 years. Maybe those guys that built the hospitals in a few days will sort HS2 out.

[emax]

20 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I was speaking to a mate who works in the NHS and he told me that A&E is currently full of people with colds, flu and throat infections wanting to be tested for corona virus. It is putting a massive strain on them already, also spreading our well established and endemic viruses round more easily.

 

This will be the problem. Unfortunately, a large chunk of society is thick as .... these days, and the media etc just fuels it even more. Rather than being able to self diagnose if it feels more serious or not, and if so, phoning up to get an appointment for testing, plebs just wander into A+E at the slightest sneeze!

[Gray-Wolf]

British scientist leading coronavirus fight says forecasts for 400,000 UK deaths | Daily Mail Online

WWW.DAILYMAIL.CO.UK

---

Scientist Professor Neil Ferguson, of the School of Public Health at Imperial College London, said 60 per cent of Britons could 'potentially' be affected by the virus...

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Wuhan Virus

MULTIMEDIA.SCMP.COM

---

China has confirmed the newly identified coronavirus in Wuhan city is transmitted from person to person. With six fatalities and more than 300 confirmed...

I'm mindful of the Chinese chappie that asked for payment via a doubling of rice grains on the squares of a chessboard....... from now on the numbers begin to get 'interesting' do they not, esp. if there are not enough molecules in the universe to fill square 64?

Edited February 15, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

 

[emax]

52 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

British scientist leading coronavirus fight says forecasts for 400,000 UK deaths | Daily Mail Online

WWW.DAILYMAIL.CO.UK

---

Scientist Professor Neil Ferguson, of the School of Public Health at Imperial College London, said 60 per cent of Britons could 'potentially' be affected by the virus...

 

"However, he insisted he was not predicting 400,000 deaths, rather pointing out that the figure 'is possible'."

I could of told them that lol. This headline is the EXACT problem with the media. 

Would you link an article from the mail with a scientist saying AGW is "possibly a lie"???? 

[Blessed Weather]

If used properly this thread could be an excellent source of factual and helpful information about COVID-19. Instead it has become clogged with speculation, news from unproven sources and tit-for-tat arguments. I have just removed dozens of such posts.

Please ensure posts in here are based on fact or from a reliable source of information. And please keep discussions respectful.

Thank you.

[Snipper]

1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

If used properly this thread could be an excellent source of factual and helpful information about COVID-19. Instead it has become clogged with speculation, news from unproven sources and tit-for-tat arguments. I have just removed dozens of such posts.

Please ensure posts in here are based on fact or from a reliable source of information. And please keep discussions respectful.

Thank you.

Too right!

Turned into a gossip and rumour thread

Edited February 15, 2020 by Snipper

[Gael_Force]

China Focus: China at "most crucial stage" of novel coronavirus prevention, control: official - Xinhua | English.news.cn

WWW.XINHUANET.COM

This is a good article detailing the response to the challenge.

Snip...

Quote

A total of 217 medical teams with 25,633 medical workers had been sent to Hubei to help combat the COVID-19 as of Friday. Of the medical workers, 20,374 are now working in Wuhan, figures from the NHC show.

Wang, also a member of the standing committee of the Hubei provincial Party committee, noted that the figure excluded medical staff sent by the military.

"The total number of medical workers has far exceeded that for rescue in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, and we did it at a much faster speed," he added.

Three mobile P3 laboratories were also dispatched to the epicenter for epidemic control.