Novel Coronavirus – China

[Gray-Wolf]

In the influenza v's Covid-19 some helpful soul over on ASIF put together some graphics comparing the US Flu stats with Covid-19 stats;

 

[Gray-Wolf]

When we look at the outbreak getting into the UK population we may well be seeing 'pods' deployed at major hospitals but such still needs staffing?

China reveals massive toll of coronavirus on health workers - ABC News

ABCNEWS.GO.COM

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So far, 1,716 medical workers on the frontlines in China have tested positive for COVID-19 and six of them have died.

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Sounds hopeful?

Plea for plasma after positive results with coronavirus patients in China

WWW.SCMP.COM

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Health of critically ill people treated with antibodies from recovered patients improved in tests, biotech company says.

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Coronavirus: home testing pilot launched in London to cut hospital visits and ambulance use

WWW.BMJ.COM

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People with suspected covid-19 in London are being tested in their homes as part of a pilot that was developed by doctors to stop unnecessary ambulance use and...

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Coronavirus: eight planes in lockdown on Heathrow runways | Daily Mail Online

WWW.DAILYMAIL.CO.UK

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Travellers on the United Airlines Flight 901 from San Francisco were told by the captain to stay in their seats after landing because eight planes were suspected of...

 

[Gray-Wolf]

RSPH Statement on Coronavirus (COVID-19)

WWW.RSPH.ORG.UK

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As with all <b>Public Health</b> bodies with a global focus, <b>RSPH</b> is closely monitoring the <b>Coronavirus</b> situation as it develops.

 

[swebby]

8 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Actually, "uninformed 'off the cuff' comparisons with seasonal flu" are not that far off as to what most people would experience with this strain of coronavirus, in terms of symptoms and how most people with it would actually feel, according to docs and viralogists that have been on the tv and other media. Only this morning on This Morning the viralogist guest on there was saying exactly that, and his overwhelming message was "dont worry, our health experts and NHS know how to deal with any outbreak". So, a real medical pro defo gives me comfort.

Something that you should always consider BB is that "responsible" professionals will give an opinion on based on a balance of probabilities. What they will (or should) never do is go on national TV and say "we're all doomed i tell yer, doooommmed!" even if they are aware that there is a real, albeit very very small possibility that is the case.  What you are seeing on TV at the moment is responsible advice that is intended to comfort and reassure the public, and it is I believe almost certainly correct advice. There is however always the possibility of outliers - worse case scenarios. These are things best kept for the scientific arena where such predictions can be challenged and debated. Sometimes these worse case scenarios (e.g. La Palma mega tsunami) do get picked up by the media.

For what it is worth, my non expert opinion is that this virus is not going to be contained.  This should be of no surprise, it is easily transmissible and any attempt at containing something like this is going to be as successful as herding cats. That is not to say containment is a waste of time, it will still slow the spread and therefore make impacts on health care systems more manageable. I also feel that the physical impacts of the virus are not going to be as bad as first feared. I'm basing this on a suspicion that there are a large number of unreported cases in China due to the mild nature of the symptoms in those cases, coupled to a low mortality rate in the cases outside of China. In one respect, a pandemic of a novel virus with a mortality rate of 1% and a relative high rate of people requiring acute medical care (say 5%) could prove to be a valuable cautionary tale. 1% mortality and 5% hospital admission means that nearly everyone will be personally effected, e.g they will no someone that was hit badly or someone that knows someone. I'm not belittling the vast #'s that a 1% mortality entails, but it will wake the worlds populous and politicians up to the fact there is a very real menace out there (the big one so to speak)and that research and precautionary measures should be continually funded.

[alexisj9]

All I know is cause my ms med compromises my immune system, normal colds make me very ill, the flu nearly put me in hospital in October. I have to try and avoid this one if I can. 

[weirpig]

An  interesting facebook post today from my lads school    he attends a private school  in wolves  and they have stated that  this half term all 60 Chinese borders will not be travelling back home  and will remain in the uk   this will be reviewed at Easter    certainly taking it seriously 

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

All I know is cause my ms med compromises my immune system, normal colds make me very ill, the flu nearly put me in hospital in October. I have to try and avoid this one if I can. 

My eldest daughter's bipolar treatment has the same effect, alexis: the nasty 6-day cold that I'm just now getting-over (headache, sore throat, voice like Lee Marvin etc.) kept her bedridden for around 4 days...Just do your best to keep clear of COVID-2019...?

[Dreckly]

8 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

My eldest daughter's bipolar treatment has the same effect, alexis: the nasty 6-day cold that I'm just now getting-over (headache, sore throat, voice like Lee Marvin etc.) kept her bedridden for around 4 days...Just do your best to keep clear of COVID-2019...?

I have a similar problem but mine is a Neuro Degenerative disease and I am mostly housebound, will do my best to avoid this one if possible.

[Bristawl Si]

47 minutes ago, weirpig said:

An  interesting facebook post today from my lads school    he attends a private school  in wolves  and they have stated that  this half term all 60 Chinese borders will not be travelling back home  and will remain in the uk   this will be reviewed at Easter    certainly taking it seriously 

Sensible action.....but....

Simon Calder on tv today was saying dont be put off from travelling to Far East.

Edited February 14, 2020 by Bristle boy

[Bristawl Si]

35 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

All I know is cause my ms med compromises my immune system, normal colds make me very ill, the flu nearly put me in hospital in October. I have to try and avoid this one if I can. 

You're in the minority though, thankfully.

[fujita5]

Sorry to hear that so many of you guys and your families are struggling with chronic conditions.

My ex wife has fibromyalgia and all the joys that brings with it, plus she's had bacterial pneumonia twice in the last 6 months so has weakened lungs.  She wants to do everything possible to avoid getting ill but works at a special school, so is very often exposed to viruses as the kids often can't / won't / don't understand how to avoid coughing into the air.

Back to the virus.  My workplace has put a rule in place regarding foreign holidays, until further notice.  Anyone intending to fly to the far east is required to speak with our HR department as they will be asked to stay off of work for 2 weeks after returning.  We also have posters up everywhere reminding people to wash their hands after using the toilet, and they have placed several dispensers of antibacterial hand gel in every office.

[Snipper]

Problem is some people are happy in living in absolute filth.
 

Recall doing a valuation of some 2,000 properties throughout southern England for a Housing Assiciation. One in particular sticks in my mind. As soon as you went inside you stopped breathing through your nose. Amongst other things the bloke who lived there took pride in peeing into bottles and leaving them about the place.  On worktops, shelves floor and mantle.

What was most nauseating was the WC pan had the top broken off but was still being used. It looked a bit like a mud volcano. My report concluded with the comment that this was the sort of property that you wiped your feet as you leave.

Of course I am sure the occupier regularly washed his hands. I went home and had a long hot shower. 

[emax]

1 hour ago, Gray-Wolf said:

In the influenza v's Covid-19 some helpful soul over on ASIF put together some graphics comparing the US Flu stats with Covid-19 stats;

 

You literally said yesterday that people "dont get it", and that cases are being massively under reported........so you obviously "dont get it" that such a theory would massively skew those charts you've posted?

 

[Bristawl Si]

14 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

Sorry to hear that so many of you guys and your families are struggling with chronic conditions.

My ex wife has fibromyalgia and all the joys that brings with it, plus she's had bacterial pneumonia twice in the last 6 months so has weakened lungs.  She wants to do everything possible to avoid getting ill but works at a special school, so is very often exposed to viruses as the kids often can't / won't / don't understand how to avoid coughing into the air.

Back to the virus.  My workplace has put a rule in place regarding foreign holidays, until further notice.  Anyone intending to fly to the far east is required to speak with our HR department as they will be asked to stay off of work for 2 weeks after returning.  We also have posters up everywhere reminding people to wash their hands after using the toilet, and they have placed several dispensers of antibacterial hand gel in every office.

Overreaction

[ciel]

6 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Gloom and doom, again. What a f**kin yawn!

It is disappointing to note that the potential impact of this viral infection, on individuals, local/national communities or on a global scale is so arrogantly dismissed. 

Anyway, whether it evolves into a pandemic, or not, there will be a beneficial learning curve for future reference.

[Snipper]

Just confirmed my booking for the family to have my birthday lunch at a Chinese restaurant on Sunday. 
 

All my family and friends are aware and continue to monitor the situation.

Buckets of sand are available for the placement of heads for those that need it. 

Edited February 14, 2020 by Snipper

[Bristawl Si]

14 minutes ago, ciel said:

It is disappointing to note that the potential impact of this viral infection, on individuals, local/national communities or on a global scale is so arrogantly dismissed. 

Anyway, whether it evolves into a pandemic, or not, there will be a beneficial learning curve for future reference.

Not really. I take my que from pros i hear on tv, radio or at my local docs. I dont think you, or others, on here belong in that category. Correct me if i'm wrong and you are an authentic medical expert.

[Gael_Force]

Another success with Remdesivir treatment. 

Quote

The first French patient affected by the coronavirus is cured and left the hospital Thursday, February 13 after 22 days of quarantine. The 181 returnees from China who have been in solitary confinement for two weeks have also been released. The Minister of Health, Agnès Buzyn, expects "new cases" in the territory.

The 48-year-old man, infected with the coronavirus, left the Bordeaux University Hospital this Thursday after having returned there on January 23. He then suffered from bilateral pneumonia and was placed in an isolation room. He received treatment with Remdesivir, an antiviral which was used to bring down the fever and calm his persistent cough. The molecule, which acts on the lungs, is being evaluated by the World Health Organization (WHO).
 

 Diagnosed with double pneumonia and having to spend 22 days in hospital is not exactly typical of flu cases. He was never serious (as far as I know) but still needed a lot of time and resources from the healthcare system

 

Edited February 14, 2020 by Gael_Force

[fujita5]

20 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Overreaction

I get where you're coming from, but what are they supposed to do? Pretend the risk is exactly zero of getting it in the far East, or assume the risk is just enough to prompt some kind of preventative action?

If the virus managed to get in to my company it could spread very easily as we run a busy call centre which deals with vehicle breakdowns and accidents. Staff sit next to each other at close quarters for more than the accepted 15-minute exposure window which has been cited by experts as the point at which transmission becomes more likely.

Based on the current government advice about quarantine we could quickly end up with a decent percentage of staff being off for up to two weeks (people with any suspect symptoms and those who have sat very near to them, and anyone awaiting test results), impacting service levels which would cause people to be waiting at the roadside, often in dangerous locations, for longer than necessary. That puts lives at risk.

I've spoken to a board member, they discussed this at length and decided to take the option of trying to keep our business and our 2 million potential clients as safe as possible by trying to stop it getting in, and trying to limit the spread if it does by providing additional sanitation.

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Sometimes the 'filthy conditions' folk live in are purely their minds and their total lack of empathy for others I have found but , and this is what interests me, they are also the biggest whiners when they fall foul of this or that?

I'm sure we all remember such from the school playgrounds but it appears that whilst most left such there some glory in its continuance their whole lives?

A life experience seriously squandered IMHO

[ciel]

15 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Not really. I take my que from pros i hear on tv, radio or at my local docs. I dont think you, or others, on here belong in that category. Correct me if i'm wrong and you are an authentic medical expert.

Agree, I’m quite unauthentic in this regard, but I have not made definitive statements regarding the situation, only comments about potential outcomes, ( although former work experience regarding infection spread and control might provide me with a smidgeon more insight than your good-self’s holiday experiences)

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, Bristle boy said:

Sensible action.....but....

Simon Calder on tv today was saying dont be put off from travelling to Far East.

I wasn't aware that Calder was an epidemiologist, a virologist or even an expert in disease aetiology; last I heard, he was a travel writer/blogger...? Simon Says, eh?