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Novel Coronavirus – China


Snipper

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
1 hour ago, Snipper said:

Thank you for letting us know your feelings.

So I know what you mean can you indicate any country in the world that satisfies your wish for a non capitalist society that functions.

 

Your asking for an example that the current order actively stamps out/Humiliates wherever it tries to establish????

Behave!

Strip out the corrupt system that exists and then see what 'The People' make of it?

 

Edit:

image.thumb.png.2b9180fd154edfeb2e17f61c2f2a36ec.png

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I don't know whether the time was all wrong (6:30pm?) but my wife assured me (confirmed by staff saying "its worse than Christmas!") with regard stock runs/shortages?

I was told 'sanitizer' came in at 9am. and was sold out  before 10am.?

Is it because we have a portion of our populace here in Halifax that have relatives that 'know' what we are facing once 'lock down' begins to emerge around the UK?

I would urge that you all take in dry food (& water if on pumped services?) tinned protein and vitamins/oats/beans/pasta/rice

How silly will you feel if you spend £30 on such and don't need too:?

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Lets try stick to the virus and not political systems, eh?

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
9 hours ago, emax said:

So is this professor suggesting that China is hiding the extra 28000 deaths?

I think Prof Ferguson is suggesting a high ratio of unreported/unrecorded cases. Not anything nefarious in terms of hiding the #'s, more that a number of those that are sick are not ill enough to be seeking help from the authorities and go under the radar. 

This would make sense, you have a ticklish cough, it could be Covid-19, it could be hayfever, you don't feel ill to any extent, so what do you do? Self quarantine and keep quiet?  Or alert the "authorities" and find yourself under house arrest or whisked off to one of the new hospitals? You are likely to keep schtum unless you need medical assistance. It seems that many of those infected have very mild symptoms and the majority of these may be absent from the figures as a result. 

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl

This is a rather good article from the BBC on the fallibility of the tests.

_110895601_gettyimages-1080254120.jpg
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

Concerns are being raised about the accuracy of the tests for the coronavirus.

However, they do seem reluctant to use either of the correct designations (COVID-19 or 2019-nCoV) in their reporting. I wonder if that is on purpose or not, i.e. the public are happier with the term coronavirus?

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Posted
  • Location: North Cornwall 187ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic Storms, Thunder & Lightning, Snow.
  • Location: North Cornwall 187ft asl
PfrKYk2gsf2Ev2vkEKRmPi-1200-80.jpg
WWW.LIVESCIENCE.COM

Here's a look at what you need to know about the new virus and the disease it causes.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
35 minutes ago, swebby said:

This is a rather good article from the BBC on the fallibility of the tests.

_110895601_gettyimages-1080254120.jpg
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

Concerns are being raised about the accuracy of the tests for the coronavirus.

However, they do seem reluctant to use either of the correct designations (COVID-19 or 2019-nCoV) in their reporting. I wonder if that is on purpose or not, i.e. the public are happier with the term coronavirus?

Is there a single diagnostic test, in existence, that provides a combination of 100% true positives and 100% true negatives...?

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
19 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Is there a single diagnostic test, in existence, that provides a combination of 100% true positives and 100% true negatives...?

Any test, no matter how well developed, will always have the potential to give false negatives/positives*.  The trick is to reduce these errors to a point that they are insignificant, certainly to a point where two tests in a 48hr period are certain confirmation of a negative result. 

For Covid-19, the development of kit based test would be of great help as this would flag the majority of the positive cases. A kit test, likely to be based on antibodies that recognise the virus directly or an associated bio-marker, will be something that could be performed in a matter of hours, in an environment as simple as a doctors surgery or even a field hospital tent. No transporting of samples to a path lab equipped with the appropriate PCR equipment.

*a close exception to this would be culture tests, where you grow the pathogen and visually confirm it is present.  Even this however could be subject to errors in sample handling/collection.

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Posted
  • Location: Mid Essex
  • Location: Mid Essex

Was panic buying at the supermarket this morning. Mainly comprised of harassed blokes buying flowers and boxes of chocolates. To ward off an outbreak from their beloved I expect.
There was no shortage of anything. A normal day for Friday. 

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Posted
  • Location: Barnehurst nr Bexleyheath, Kent
  • Location: Barnehurst nr Bexleyheath, Kent
13 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

 

Edit; Beautiful waning Moon out there right now....what will the New Moon bring with it?

More lunatics probably!

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3 hours ago, swebby said:

I think Prof Ferguson is suggesting a high ratio of unreported/unrecorded cases. Not anything nefarious in terms of hiding the #'s, more that a number of those that are sick are not ill enough to be seeking help from the authorities and go under the radar. 

This would make sense, you have a ticklish cough, it could be Covid-19, it could be hayfever, you don't feel ill to any extent, so what do you do? Self quarantine and keep quiet?  Or alert the "authorities" and find yourself under house arrest or whisked off to one of the new hospitals? You are likely to keep schtum unless you need medical assistance. It seems that many of those infected have very mild symptoms and the majority of these may be absent from the figures as a result. 

Sorry, my comment was more of a rhetorical question directed more at those who seem to take every snipped of info as bad news.

My point was, if only 5% of cases are recorded, then thats excellent news, because that would put the mortality rate through the floor. If its a case that 28000 deaths have gone unrecorded, then obviously it would change things, but even in a densely populated area like that, I find it hard to believe that 28000 people could of died at home etc, and no one knows about it. SO, its either very good news, or China are hiding 28k deaths. Despite my opinions on the political systems of China, I cant imagine they would be able to hide so many deaths in this day and age.

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
21 minutes ago, snow raven said:

More lunatics probably!

Yes, take care, the "Lunatics" of Netweather community:

New research has found the rise of "fake news" - including misinformation and inaccurate advice on social media - could make disease outbreaks such as COVID-19 worse.

In an analysis of how the spread of misinformation affects the spread of disease, scientists at East Anglia University (UEA) said any successful efforts to stop people sharing fake news could help save lives.

Professor of medicine Paul Hunter said: "When it comes to COVID-19, there has been a lot of speculation, misinformation and fake news circulating on the internet - about how the virus originated, what causes it and how it is spread.

"Misinformation means that bad advice can circulate very quickly - and it can change human behaviour to take greater risks."

They also took into account how lower trust in authorities is linked to a tendency to believe conspiracies, how people interact in "information bubbles" online, and the fact that "worryingly, people are more likely to share bad advice on social media than good advice from trusted sources".

The researchers found that a 10% reduction in the amount of harmful advice being circulated has a mitigating impact on the severity of an outbreak, while making 20% of a population unable to share harmful advice has the same positive effect.

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2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Yes, take care, the "Lunatics" of Netweather community:

New research has found the rise of "fake news" - including misinformation and inaccurate advice on social media - could make disease outbreaks such as COVID-19 worse.

In an analysis of how the spread of misinformation affects the spread of disease, scientists at East Anglia University (UEA) said any successful efforts to stop people sharing fake news could help save lives.

Professor of medicine Paul Hunter said: "When it comes to COVID-19, there has been a lot of speculation, misinformation and fake news circulating on the internet - about how the virus originated, what causes it and how it is spread.

"Misinformation means that bad advice can circulate very quickly - and it can change human behaviour to take greater risks."

They also took into account how lower trust in authorities is linked to a tendency to believe conspiracies, how people interact in "information bubbles" online, and the fact that "worryingly, people are more likely to share bad advice on social media than good advice from trusted sources".

The researchers found that a 10% reduction in the amount of harmful advice being circulated has a mitigating impact on the severity of an outbreak, while making 20% of a population unable to share harmful advice has the same positive effect.

I was just going to make a point about stuff like this.

When it comes to climate change (please, this isnt a climate debate or owt), but peer reviewed papers etc are essential, and any info or data from a scientist that goes against AGW theory is instantly dismissed here by certain people (I have no problem with that btw, this isnt about AGW).

But when it comes to this virus, a single paper or snippet of info, without necessary support by others, is branded as fact, and bad news for everyone. I lurk in this forum just to find snippets of info about upcoming weather etc, but I just find it strange that when it comes to this virus, all bets are off, and any data is taken as accurate and fair game, when it would normally be instantly shouted down by the very same people lol.

The 24-28 day incubation is a prime example. The very paper/report/whatever it was that this data came from, suggested that the average time was 3-5days if I remember correctly, and that 1 in the 1000 cases may have been 24 days, but as medcram youtube channel pointed out, it wasn't conclusive, and they could of had two viruses or something. He also made the good point that people can grow to 7ft tall, but how many 7ft people have you seen in your life?

We still dont know how this is all going to pan out, its far too early, but taking small snippets of info, and turning them into absolute facts that apply to everyone, is not the answer!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Clacton-on-Sea, Essex
  • Location: Clacton-on-Sea, Essex
10 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Yes, take care, the "Lunatics" of Netweather community:

New research has found the rise of "fake news" - including misinformation and inaccurate advice on social media - could make disease outbreaks such as COVID-19 worse.

In an analysis of how the spread of misinformation affects the spread of disease, scientists at East Anglia University (UEA) said any successful efforts to stop people sharing fake news could help save lives.

Professor of medicine Paul Hunter said: "When it comes to COVID-19, there has been a lot of speculation, misinformation and fake news circulating on the internet - about how the virus originated, what causes it and how it is spread.

"Misinformation means that bad advice can circulate very quickly - and it can change human behaviour to take greater risks."

They also took into account how lower trust in authorities is linked to a tendency to believe conspiracies, how people interact in "information bubbles" online, and the fact that "worryingly, people are more likely to share bad advice on social media than good advice from trusted sources".

The researchers found that a 10% reduction in the amount of harmful advice being circulated has a mitigating impact on the severity of an outbreak, while making 20% of a population unable to share harmful advice has the same positive effect.

Yes, this applies to everything online.  Misinformation is one of the greatest enemies facing humankind.  I have a number of friends who are anti-vaxxers, friends who still believe 911 was controlled demolition etc etc.  Drives me up the wall!

However as soon as you give authorities the power to censor the internet and remove what is considered fake news, you open up a whole new can of worms and certain parts of the populace will trust the 'powers that be' even less.  It's a very difficult balancing act and there will always be those who go looking for conspiracies or will refuse to accept that what their mum told them isn't actually true! 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
15 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Yes, take care, the "Lunatics" of Netweather community:

New research has found the rise of "fake news" - including misinformation and inaccurate advice on social media - could make disease outbreaks such as COVID-19 worse.

In an analysis of how the spread of misinformation affects the spread of disease, scientists at East Anglia University (UEA) said any successful efforts to stop people sharing fake news could help save lives.

Professor of medicine Paul Hunter said: "When it comes to COVID-19, there has been a lot of speculation, misinformation and fake news circulating on the internet - about how the virus originated, what causes it and how it is spread.

"Misinformation means that bad advice can circulate very quickly - and it can change human behaviour to take greater risks."

They also took into account how lower trust in authorities is linked to a tendency to believe conspiracies, how people interact in "information bubbles" online, and the fact that "worryingly, people are more likely to share bad advice on social media than good advice from trusted sources".

The researchers found that a 10% reduction in the amount of harmful advice being circulated has a mitigating impact on the severity of an outbreak, while making 20% of a population unable to share harmful advice has the same positive effect.

Does that mean that Brexiteers'll have a better chance of survival than Remainers? :oldlaugh:

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Posted
  • Location: Mid Essex
  • Location: Mid Essex
23 minutes ago, emax said:

 

We still dont know how this is all going to pan out, its far too early, but taking small snippets of info, and turning them into absolute facts that apply to everyone, is not the answer!

 

If all this comes to something that is not too bad I get the impression some might be very disappointed.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
5 minutes ago, Snipper said:

If all this comes to something that is not too bad I get the impression some might be very disappointed.

Indeed...I'd guess that those who advocate population-control will be beside themselves. 

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Posted
  • Location: Barnehurst nr Bexleyheath, Kent
  • Location: Barnehurst nr Bexleyheath, Kent
10 minutes ago, Snipper said:

If all this comes to something that is not too bad I get the impression some might be very disappointed.

 

I've noticed a few in this thread that seem to get excited at all the doom and gloom (and posting any old rubbish off the internet to support their claims that the end of the world is nigh)  I don't think some will be happy in here until we have another Spanish Flu pandemic like in 1918 so they can splutter their last lungful of breath with "I told you so".

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
42 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Does that mean that Brexiteers'll have a better chance of survival than Remainers? :oldlaugh:

Being a Reformed Remainer even i can see that those who remain Remainers are still sulking after the drubbing on December 12th

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Posted
  • Location: Fettercain/Edzell
  • Location: Fettercain/Edzell
30 minutes ago, snow raven said:

I've noticed a few in this thread that seem to get excited at all the doom and gloom (and posting any old rubbish off the internet to support their claims that the end of the world is nigh)  I don't think some will be happy in here until we have another Spanish Flu pandemic like in 1918 so they can splutter their last lungful of breath with "I told you so".

I think that assessment of this thread is a wee bit unfair.

The concerns are not simply about the mortality rate associated with 2019nCoV but more the impact of widespread morbidity on essential services and business. This is an unknown, and is an interesting and important topic for discussion, as are the measures which might be taken to control the spread.

And I have not noted much in the way of fake news on here, except, maybe, the determination of one or two to make uninformed ‘off the cuff’ comparisons with seasonal flu.

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
2 minutes ago, ciel said:

I think that assessment of this thread is a wee bit unfair.

The concerns are not simply about the mortality rate associated with 2019nCoV but more the impact of widespread morbidity on essential services and business. This is an unknown, and is an interesting and important topic for discussion, as are the measures which might be taken to control the spread.

And I have not noted much in the way of fake news on here, except, maybe, the determination of one or two to make uninformed ‘off the cuff’ comparisons with seasonal flu.

Actually, "uninformed 'off the cuff' comparisons with seasonal flu" are not that far off as to what most people would experience with this strain of coronavirus, in terms of symptoms and how most people with it would actually feel, according to docs and viralogists that have been on the tv and other media. Only this morning on This Morning the viralogist guest on there was saying exactly that, and his overwhelming message was "dont worry, our health experts and NHS know how to deal with any outbreak". So, a real medical pro defo gives me comfort.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
45 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Indeed...I'd guess that those who advocate population-control will be beside themselves. 

Actually i would like population control with contraception rather than mass-murder by states, that is all - make no mistake about it, this virus is the end of civilisation as we know it, i be some climate change activists are not too disappointed either, particularly as it will affect businessmen more than most.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

As noted upthread the respiratory health of many 'city dwellers' in China must be well compromised compared to folk living in 'fresh air' all their lives?

6d739aa4-4e55-11ea-9b4e-9c10402c07b7_ima
WWW.SCMP.COM

The spike in Beijing’s poor air quality comes despite lower emissions from industry and vehicles due to the impact of the coronavirus outbreak.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Mid Essex
  • Location: Mid Essex

Who do we believe? https://www.airvisual.com/china/beijing

share.png
AIR.PLUMELABS.COM

Real-time levels and forecasts of Particulate Matter (PM2.5, PM10), Ozone (O3) and Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) in Beijing. The air quality report by Plume Labs.

 

Edited by Snipper
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Brexshyte and Covid-19...... what a year this will be for us all!!!

WWW.LLOYDSLOADINGLIST.COM

Effects likely to be felt throughout much of 2020, even if the worst effects of the outbreak are reached soon, according to one leading US-based freight forwarding and third-party logistics provider

 

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