Novel Coronavirus – China

[Snipper]

Interesting read

China and the virus that threatens everything

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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With the country reeling from the massive public health disaster, what might it mean for the economy, society and those in power?

 

[CharmlessMan]

Have come across a couple of useful links on other forum, so thought I'd share here.

1. Interview with Marc Lipsitch, professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and head of the School’s Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics

Harvard expert says coronavirus likely now ‘gathering steam’

NEWS.HARVARD.EDU

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Harvard’s Marc Lipsitch said evidence indicates that the international cordon keeping coronavirus cases bottled up in China is a leaky one, and it’s likely that...

 

2.  Interesting graphs and timeline.

Tableau Public

PUBLIC.TABLEAU.COM

[Methuselah]

12 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

My point is more around robust statistics and whether there's enough numbers to protect accurately, as outlined above, by Spikecollie. My ex-work colleague and friend, a statistician and Quant Researcher, would know a lot more than me on this issue.

Now you're worrying me BB...Wasn't it Quant Researchers that dreamed-up that peculiar (non-Bayesian) branch of statistics that had the entire world bamboozled by long-winded, highfalutin (quasi-physics) economics equations, a little over a decade ago...?

A fine example of the 'move along now, nothing to see here' mentality, if ever there were one?

Edited February 12, 2020 by General Cluster

[Gray-Wolf]

James Niven, medical officer for M/cr during the spanish Flu, decided not to give up advice in case it 'harmed the war effort'

The old "the first casualty of war is the truth...." appears to have shaped this philosophy of 'carry on' no matter the lives full disclosure would have saved?

Spin on to today and a 'global economy', governed by the global markets, and we can swap out Generals for 'Captains of industry' who are not only charged with making money for their clients but ensuring there are no unforeseen hiccoughs that can wipe out the portfolios of their clients.

Already we have seen the initial impacts on areas of the Global economy (oil prices/travel comps/luxury providers etc) and the suspicions that China was slow to react to the emergence of the virus in an effort to protect their emerging economy (as we have seen before With SARs/Swine flu?).

Are we facing a potential pandemic that the Leaders of the developed world will try and play down to protect their own nations economies?

Will Global Capitalism allow Covid-19 to capitalise on the lack of public awareness to the serious nature of the infection allowing Global travel to continue unhindered until national outbreaks call for suspension of flights (either to protect other nations or lessen incoming cases?)

 

Edited February 12, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

Not peer reviewed, but suggesting R0 value of between 4.7 and 6.6.

The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated

WWW.MEDRXIV.ORG

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medRxiv - The Preprint Server for Health Sciences

 

[Gray-Wolf]

We see where 1 elderly Chinese national passing the virus on to a maid has left the Diamond Princess BFTV.... I cannot but find this worrying esp with the incubation period appearing to grow week on week?

We have reports of a woman who visited wuhan developing symptoms 42 days after her visit there????

I know it is difficult to pin her infection to Wuhan but her region had no cases out in the community when she took ill?

How the heck do you track down all contacts for a 42 day period (and then all their contacts , and all their contacts contacts....rinse and repeat for 30 odd days.....)

EDIT: I do advise folk revisit the BBC experiment of 'contacts/spread of a contagion over 3 days' that ran on BBC4 last night (now on IPlayer?) as it will give an idea of just how many folk can come into contact, from one single person, of a contagion and how 'Super Spreaders' occur?

For example how many contacts will a person working the till in a shop see in a day?

Edited February 12, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[fujita5]

43 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Not peer reviewed, but suggesting R0 value of between 4.7 and 6.6.

The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated

WWW.MEDRXIV.ORG

---

medRxiv - The Preprint Server for Health Sciences

 

This would make sense in China as the infection seemed to explode in numbers.... it's yet to happen here, although the few isolated cases and the fact that people are probably more spaced out in terms of living accommodation may have mitigated the spread so far.

If the R0 is indeed that high, once a sufferer gets on the London Underground, goes to a football match or simply wanders around a busy UK city with no symptoms but shedding covid-19 as they go, it may become a different story very quickly.

[Gray-Wolf]

1 minute ago, fujita5 said:

This would make sense in China as the infection seemed to explode in numbers.... it's yet to happen here, although the few isolated cases and the fact that people are probably more spaced out in terms of living accommodation may have mitigated the spread so far.

If the R0 is indeed that high, once a sufferer gets on the London Underground, goes to a football match or simply wanders around a busy UK city with no symptoms but shedding covid-19 as they go, it may become a different story very quickly.

If we go on the 24 day incubation period now being widely reported how do we know this has already not occurred fujita5?

It would appear to be the 'perfect storm' of a virus having a very long incubation period coupled with an ability to survive on hard surfaces for up to 9 days?

Could someone remind me again how many flights have passed through international airports in the far east since the start of the year (when we know it was H2H)?

[Gray-Wolf]

It would be the fellas that are worse off from this 'cold' wouldn't it?

 

[fujita5]

14 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

It would be the fellas that are worse off from this 'cold' wouldn't it?

 

Interesting.  It shows about 50% of cases having onset of symptoms within 5 days and 50% over 5 days.  And the death rate is significantly higher for those with a longer incubation period.

[Gray-Wolf]

4 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

Interesting.  It shows about 50% of cases having onset of symptoms within 5 days and 50% over 5 days.  And the death rate is significantly higher for those with a longer incubation period.

Maybe seeking prompt medical attention is some kind of key to a better outcome here?

Maybe us fellas 'battling on' with a ''tis but a scratch!" bravado is our undoing? (as the mortality rates show?)

[swebby]

25 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

It would be the fellas that are worse off from this 'cold' wouldn't it?

 

This backs up what i posted earlier about figures suggesting, at first glance, that smoking history is a key factor as to if this manifests as a mild infection or something way more serious.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(15)00340-2/fulltext

 

Edited February 12, 2020 by swebby

[Beverley Lass]

1 minute ago, swebby said:

This backs up what i posted earlier about figures suggesting at first glance that smoking history being a key factor as to if this manifests as a mild infection or something way more serious.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(15)00340-2/fulltext

 

This is what I suggested much earlier in the thread (as far more men smoke than women in China) but GW said I was wrong as the tar helped as a barrier to the lungs .

[Gray-Wolf]

1 minute ago, swebby said:

This backs up what i posted earlier about figures suggesting at first glance that smoking history being a key factor as to if this manifests as a mild infection or something way more serious.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(15)00340-2/fulltext

 

And I'm still clinging to 'poor air quality' being a major contributing factor for underlying weakness in the lungs of the folk in Wuhan but smoking WILL only go to compound that issue if it exists?

 

[swebby]

1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Not peer reviewed, but suggesting R0 value of between 4.7 and 6.6.

The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated

WWW.MEDRXIV.ORG

---

medRxiv - The Preprint Server for Health Sciences

 

Oh dear, that is worryingly high. Have always felt that there is zero chance of containment and that does not allay my fears.

Next best hope - this is something that is very very seasonal? What we are seeing at the moment is a peak due to the time of year and hopefully a big drop off come summer.

[Gray-Wolf]

7 minutes ago, Beverley Lass said:

This is what I suggested much earlier in the thread (as far more men smoke than women in China) but GW said I was wrong as the tar helped as a barrier to the lungs .

That was a tad tongue in cheek B.L. as it's the stock answer for me at home!

Seeing as issues come from deep down in the lungs I think that many smokers do not draw on their ciggies that much (I smoke an occasional pipe) with the only folk I've seen really drawing that hard being folk smoking spliff?

 

Edited February 12, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

5 minutes ago, swebby said:

Oh dear, that is worryingly high. Have always felt that there is zero chance of containment and that does not allay my fears.

Next best hope - this is something that is very very seasonal? What we are seeing at the moment is a peak due to the time of year and hopefully a big drop off come summer.

Ultra violet does do for most bacteria/virus (why we fit UV filters on spring water supplies to ensure quality?) so we are waiting for the sun to do what those fleets of disinfecting vans are doing in the lockdown cities in China?

If 'accidental transfer' is the main cause for spread (seeing as it survives up to 9 days outside the body?) then we should expect a drop off once strong U.V. returns in late March/April?

Edit: but 'Yes' that 'R0' is very high?

Simulations I've seen has an 'R' of 2.5 infect the whole planet by September this year?

Edited February 12, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[Snipper]

Off for some patient roll playing at the local medical school. My script indicates I have chest problems since starting work at a plastics factory (probably Wuhan Plastics).  The student doctor’s will have the opportunity to sound my chest in their assessment. As I have a cough already goodness knows what they will find wrong me. 

[Beverley Lass]

HuffPost is now a part of Verizon Media

WWW.HUFFINGTONPOST.CO.UK

Obviously makes sense.

[Gray-Wolf]

14 minutes ago, Beverley Lass said:

HuffPost is now a part of Verizon Media

WWW.HUFFINGTONPOST.CO.UK

Obviously makes sense.

I found this of concern in the article;

“I think we’re in the early phases of a global pandemic at the moment. The fact we’ve only reported eight cases in this country is just because again our surveillance is focused on travellers. We think probably we’re picking up maybe one in three cases coming into the country at the current time,” he said.

As, if this is true then all I've suggested about the unfettered spread of the virus would be true if we have this number of 'spreaders' out among the general populace?

[swebby]

4 minutes ago, Beverley Lass said:

This is what I suggested much earlier in the thread (as far more men smoke than women in China) but GW said I was wrong as the tar helped as a barrier to the lungs .

It is assumed that the ACE-2 protein is what this virus uses to gain access to cells in order to replicate.  ACE-2 is part of body's renin-angiotensin hormone system that controls blood pressure, amongst other things.  There are plenty of studies on ACE-2, and the other proteins of the renin-angiotensin hormone system, in regards to how smoking effects how much the body produces of these hormones and the potential ill effects.

If smoking increases the amount of ACE-2, or something else that regulates ACE-2 activity, then i think we have at least part of the answer?

It will be more complicated than this (e.g. other underlying health problems are likely to play roles) but those mortality figures do tally very well with Chinese smoking demographics.

53 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

And I'm still clinging to 'poor air quality' being a major contributing factor for underlying weakness in the lungs of the folk in Wuhan but smoking WILL only go to compound that issue if it exists?

 

I think this will almost certainly be a factor GW.  Bad air quality is no different to smoking in that it stresses the lungs so may result in a similar response by the body's hormonal system.  What i would say is, if it was air quality alone you would not expect to see a disparity in gender for mortality figures.  Instead you'd expect to see a steady increase with age due to greater exposure to pollutants.

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, Snipper said:

Off for some patient roll playing at the local medical school. My script indicates I have chest problems since starting work at a plastics factory (probably Wuhan Plastics).  The student doctor’s will have the opportunity to sound my chest in their assessment. As I have a cough already goodness knows what they will find wrong me. 

Chronic leaveritis?

[Gray-Wolf]

3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Chronic leaveritis?

I thought that was more a pain in the butt Pete?

Edit: That said we are now seeing what happens to car manufacturers when their supply chain is interrupted (in the far east atm?)

Edited February 12, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[swebby]

59 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Ultra violet does do for most bacteria/virus (why we fit UV filters on spring water supplies to ensure quality?) so we are waiting for the sun to do what those fleets of disinfecting vans are doing in the lockdown cities in China?

If 'accidental transfer' is the main cause for spread (seeing as it survives up to 9 days outside the body?) then we should expect a drop off once strong U.V. returns in late March/April?

Edit: but 'Yes' that 'R0' is very high?

Simulations I've seen has an 'R' of 2.5 infect the whole planet by September this year?

When i checked the weather for Wuhan a few weeks back, conditions would have been very benign; cool, over cast, and settled.  Very good for surface transfer outdoors, cool but not necessarily cold enough for everyone to wearing gloves, low UV and low aridity but not actually belting it down with rain to point that surfaces are washed clean.  Yes, blazing sunshine/UV does more than cheer the soul and give one a "healthy" glow.

The R0 is considerably higher than that for Influenza. Now, I doubt that this is actually an indicator of a difference in the mechanics of how it is spread, the process does seem to be very similar to Influenza in that regard, but is more to do with the lack of immunity in the community. Basically it has a target rich environment.

[Ryukai]

2 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

It would be the fellas that are worse off from this 'cold' wouldn't it?

 

Man Flu is now a reality  

Seriously though, I noticed this right from the start within a few days of reports when there was only 54 deaths, it was reported that only 8 were women (shortly after they stopped reporting on exactly how many men to women had died and just gave an overall death figure which just seemed really weird to me).

People kept putting it down to the 'fact' that more men would have been exposed at the start as they worked in the area it came from.  Thing is, it was a market and whilst it is likely that more men work the stores, it's mostly women that do the shopping for food so the exposure should have been roughly equal right from the get go.

Edited February 12, 2020 by Ryukai