Novel Coronavirus – China

[Spikecollie]

I am not a conspiracy theorist! You know me. Just a hypothesis - null is good - but could people be killed off to quell the numbers. Just a question...

[4wd]

42 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Not just the Chinese numbers that remain puzzling. Just a handful of known cases outside China. It has been around since mid December and the huge amount of global travel, global spread of Chinese travelling, at colleges, etc, who have been home, and then back to other countries over last 6-8 weeks. Yes, it has a long incubation period, but one would've expected a huge spike by now, outside of China.

There is a theory that it is more easily spread and more deadly to Asian ethnicities due a to a genetic difference in a certain protein in the lungs.
That doesn't explain the limited spread in adjacent countries though, because it can't be more dangerous to the Chinese only surely.

[DAVID SNOW]

4 minutes ago, 4wd said:

There is a theory that it is more easily spread and more deadly to Asian ethnicities due a to a genetic difference in a certain protein in the lungs.
That doesn't explain the limited spread in adjacent countries though, because it can't be more dangerous to the Chinese only surely.

Interesting, could it be that china(its people) have had very limited 'mixing out' of genes, perhaps then, a pure and unique people but weak regarding natural immunity and resistance?

[Spikecollie]

48 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Interesting, could it be that china(its people) have had very limited 'mixing out' of genes, perhaps then, a pure and unique people but weak regarding natural immunity and resistance?

Back to the pollution problem, maybe? Just an idea?

I recently had a very nasty throat infection (see status updates) but I fought it off very quickly compared to some (with what I think is my good immune system, my docteur agrees). I am very pollution free here and my allergy issues are almost nil save stings which I have meds. for. No sneezing, snuffy nose...

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

 

[Bristawl Si]

715 deaths so far.

To add a little perspective - US deaths from flu for Winter 18/19:

For the USA, in total, the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died. 

[Snipper]

Coronavirus: Pressure grows to re-open factories https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51353501
 

[fujita5]

9 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

715 deaths so far.

To add a little perspective - US deaths from flu for Winter 18/19:

For the USA, in total, the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died. 

Yes agreed the flu is far more prevalent but it doesn't have the same rate of severe illness and death as the new virus. You'd only need maybe 5 million infections in the USA to put a million people in hospital and potentially kill 100,000. Thankfully it hasn't really got going outside of China but that's why the world is taking it so seriously.

I think the international spread has been held in check for now, thankfully.

[Methuselah]

56 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

Yes agreed the flu is far more prevalent but it doesn't have the same rate of severe illness and death as the new virus. You'd only need maybe 5 million infections in the USA to put a million people in hospital and potentially kill 100,000. Thankfully it hasn't really got going outside of China but that's why the world is taking it so seriously.

I think the international spread has been held in check for now, thankfully.

And, were one to pro rata BB's 43 million cases, the new virus would kill around 900,000 people, an order of magnitude more severe than the 61,200 taken by the common flu...?

It's no wonder the authorities are concerned!

[4wd]

I wish people would stop comparing it to flu, it's closer to the seriousness of SARs.
That's why the Chinese are taking such draconian action even though it's probably too late since they preferred to arrest anyone mentioning it for the first month. 

Flu is a known risk and yes it kills people in large numbers worldwide but if the nCOV really takes off it's a huge additional risk the likes of which hasn't been seen in a hundred years.
I saw even the BBC were playing this dangerous game this morning 

Edited February 8, 2020 by 4wd

[Summer Sun]

 

[Bristawl Si]

26 minutes ago, 4wd said:

I wish people would stop comparing it to flu, it's closer to the seriousness of SARs.
That's why the Chinese are taking such draconian action even though it's probably too late since they preferred to arrest anyone mentioning it for the first month. 

Flu is a known risk and yes it kills people in large numbers worldwide but if the nCOV really takes off it's a huge additional risk the likes of which hasn't been seen in a hundred years.
I saw even the BBC were playing this dangerous game this morning 

Ok, but why hasnt it taken off, outside China? 2 months since first case identified; the extent of global travel by plane, day in day out, confined space (much more confined than a cruise ship). This is what i find puzzling.

[4wd]

52 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Ok, but why hasnt it taken off, outside China? 2 months since first case identified; the extent of global travel by plane, day in day out, confined space (much more confined than a cruise ship). This is what i find puzzling.

Give it time, we still aren't taking nearly enough precautions with people coming back from the far east given no checks whatsoever other than opportunity to pick up an info leaflet maybe.

[Gael_Force]

1 hour ago, 4wd said:

I wish people would stop comparing it to flu, it's closer to the seriousness of SARs.
That's why the Chinese are taking such draconian action even though it's probably too late since they preferred to arrest anyone mentioning it for the first month. 

Flu is a known risk and yes it kills people in large numbers worldwide but if the nCOV really takes off it's a huge additional risk the likes of which hasn't been seen in a hundred years.
I saw even the BBC were playing this dangerous game this morning 

This interview shows how seriously the doctors took the risk to be but still the authorities dragged their feet.

Quote

WUHAN (CAIXIN GLOBAL) - In the coronavirus epidemic, doctors on the front lines take on the greatest risk and best understand the situation. Dr Peng Zhiyong, director of acute medicine at the Wuhan University South Central Hospital, is one of those doctors.

In an interview on Tuesday with Caixin, Dr Peng described his personal experiences in first encountering the disease in early January and quickly grasping its virulent potential and the need for stringent quarantine measures.

As the contagion spread and flooded his ICU, the doctor observed that three weeks seemed to determine the difference between life and death. Patients with stronger immune systems would start to recover in a couple of weeks, but in the second week, some cases would take a turn for the worse.

Reporter's Notebook: Life and death in a Wuhan coronavirus ICU, East

WWW.STRAITSTIMES.COM

---

East Asia News -WUHAN (CAIXIN GLOBAL) - In the coronavirus epidemic, doctors on the front lines take on the greatest risk and best understand the...

 

Edited February 8, 2020 by Gael_Force

[Spikecollie]

Five new cases here in France in Haute Savoie as someone already pointed out. I chatted with my doctor this morning as he was leaving my neighbour after a home visit - outside formal medical visits we chat very socially with our médecins here in the small village. He says health professionals are as baffled as everyone else about the statistics but there is absolutely no sense of panic. French doctors are interested in the young/old factor - how few children seem (according to the data they have) to be affected but he also said there was suspicion about pollution making people more vulnerable. He also mentioned the "low exercise" culture in China augmented by long working hours (we're both run and cycle so we share the knowledge of what benefit that does to our bodies!). He also said, as I have picked up from my clients, that a lot of vulnerable people are becoming increasingly frightened for probably no reason, doing more damage to their health and well being than the virus probably ever will.

[fujita5]

I'm not frightened by the virus, I'm more concerned about the reaction that will happen if it takes off in the UK like I've said all along. In China people do what they're told or else. In the UK, a decent proportion of people say "f#ck you, government" and do what they please, especially the youth in cities.

If it were to start ravaging London and the authorities tried to curfew people and minimise gatherings, all hell would break loose.

[Eskimo]

9 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

Five new cases here in France in Haute Savoie as someone already pointed out. I chatted with my doctor this morning as he was leaving my neighbour after a home visit - outside formal medical visits we chat very socially with our médecins here in the small village. He says health professionals are as baffled as everyone else about the statistics but there is absolutely no sense of panic. French doctors are interested in the young/old factor - how few children seem (according to the data they have) to be affected but he also said there was suspicion about pollution making people more vulnerable. He also mentioned the "low exercise" culture in China augmented by long working hours (we're both run and cycle so we share the knowledge of what benefit that does to our bodies!). He also said, as I have picked up from my clients, that a lot of vulnerable people are becoming increasingly frightened for probably no reason, doing more damage to their health and well being than the virus probably ever will.

I have been with my Hong Kongese partner for about 7 years and I can confirm that the Chinese are generally hypochondriacs. Although it may be warranted as SARS really did strike fear into Hong Kong some years back. 

Edited February 8, 2020 by PerfectStorm

[Spikecollie]

33 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

I'm not frightened by the virus, I'm more concerned about the reaction that will happen if it takes off in the UK like I've said all along. In China people do what they're told or else. In the UK, a decent proportion of people say "f#ck you, government" and do what they please, especially the youth in cities.

If it were to start ravaging London and the authorities tried to curfew people and minimise gatherings, all hell would break loose.

Yes! "Any excuse" behaviour is a frightening prospect, but I (hope) and don't think it will come to that. My nephew is a police officer and reports that 75% of his duties concern mental health and drug/alcohol related issues. As I've said before, our Western society (particularly urban) is shot and we need to remodel. Definitely not in the Chinese fashion but someone better come up with some ideas pretty soon. Caring for vulnerable people, as I do now, makes you rethink what it is to be a human being - giving back to the world, the small happinesses in life, the ease of getting satisfaction without buying stuff or spending much money. Animals do that to me too - my dog expects so little but gives me so much.

If this doesn't turn out to be an absolute burden on our health services to the point of collapse, then I would hope (maybe in vain) that it will make us think about what could have been had that happened. Maybe we can learn from it, make changes and start to really reform before it is too late. How? It's not about recycling and banning petrol/diesel cars, it's about getting reconnected with each other and realising that we need communities, face to face networks of people looking out for each other. Little steps, little things but we can't keep going on like this...

[Spikecollie]

43 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

I have been with my Hong Kongese partner for about 7 years and I can confirm that the Chinese are generally hypochondriacs. Although it may be warranted as SARS really did strike fear into Hong Kong some years back. 

The cultural origins are quite interesting too. I always compare China to a "bowl". A little outside rim where all the development is and a great big pretty deprived void in the middle from which everyone wants to migrate to the rim! Not having/being able to afford medical care makes you extra scrupulous about your health but in an environment of poor educational levels and health awareness, myths abound. Hypochondria is essentially self defence. Transfer these factors into the internet/social media environment and of course people are scared bloomin' witless in the wake of SARS etc.

[Eskimo]

4 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

The cultural origins are quite interesting too. I always compare China to a "bowl". A little outside rim where all the development is and a great big pretty deprived void in the middle from which everyone wants to migrate to the rim! Not having/being able to afford medical care makes you extra scrupulous about your health but in an environment of poor educational levels and health awareness, myths abound. Hypochondria is essentially self defence. Transfer these factors into the internet/social media environment and of course people are scared bloomin' witless in the wake of SARS etc.

Absolutely spot on! 

Edited February 8, 2020 by PerfectStorm

[Dami]

54 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

I'm not frightened by the virus, I'm more concerned about the reaction that will happen if it takes off in the UK like I've said all along. In China people do what they're told or else. In the UK, a decent proportion of people say "f#ck you, government" and do what they please, especially the youth in cities.

If it were to start ravaging London and the authorities tried to curfew people and minimise gatherings, all hell would break loose.

I need to agree with this. 

Can I also make the point of how many people would start to feel ill and shrug it off, thinking 'it's just a cold?' Yes I get you would be too ill, but I have never been a great supporter of 'it's only a cold' club. Only a cold sent my daughter to hospital the other week, gave me a very strange virus Christmas time and wiped me out for a good week. 

I think it can be said the cold i would get as a child is a very different beast to the one that i've had now. 

This virus is just the beginning i'm sure

 

[Spikecollie]

10 minutes ago, Dami said:

Can I also make the point of how many people would start to feel ill and shrug it off, thinking 'it's just a cold?' Yes I get you would be too ill, but I have never been a great supporter of 'it's only a cold' club. Only a cold sent my daughter to hospital the other week, gave me a very strange virus Christmas time and wiped me out for a good week.

 

Living and working in France has totally changed my attitude to medical care. Here, you can't self certify sick from work so you have to see your doctor to get a sick note - otherwise you have an unjustified absence - even for a day. Aside from that, people consult the doctor for everything, even minor complaints. I have to say, I don't but I think it's a good thing. It's not expensive - my cousin in Ireland just told me that the GP consultation fee had risen to 60€. That's an abomination for anyone without insurance etc. Here it's 25€ with immediate reimbursement to 0€. If you feel unwell and feeling unwell is very subjective, you need to see a bloomin' doctor - saves the population from the lurgy, makes you better and saves the state/employers money, no argument.

How we go on funding this is open to debate but people will still go on getting sick...

[Dami]

2 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

Living and working in France has totally changed my attitude to medical care. Here, you can't self certify sick from work so you have to see your doctor to get a sick note - otherwise you have an unjustified absence - even for a day. Aside from that, people consult the doctor for everything, even minor complaints. I have to say, I don't but I think it's a good thing. It's not expensive - my cousin in Ireland just told me that the GP consultation fee had risen to 60€. That's an abomination for anyone without insurance etc. Here it's 25€ with immediate reimbursement to 0€. If you feel unwell and feeling unwell is very subjective, you need to see a bloomin' doctor - saves the population from the lurgy, makes you better and saves the state/employers money, no argument.

How we go on funding this is open to debate but people will still go on getting sick...

I'm not suggesting that people should go to a doctor at every little thing spike! It's bad enough that my local Doctors has gone from getting an appointment the same day to a two weeks wait. It's bad enough that as parents we get snotty 'we are watching you' letters from school when Bubs is off for a few days. 111 considered bubs issue important enough to be seen within 6 hours, I am not a time waster regarding Doctors, but my daughter was in alot of pain and couldn't move her neck as well as a fever and sore throat. We are talking about a school that told me to take my daughter to the doctors because she had 'a bit of a cough and brought up a bit of her dinner' The way things are going we will be getting sick notes for our children!

All i'm saying is in this 'it's only a cold' culture it is no surprise these viruses spread so quickly.  

[nick sussex]

It appears now all 5 new cases in France are Brits who picked up the virus from another Brit whose now gone back to the UK to infect people there ! 

Surely this person needs to be traced ASAP and put into quarantine .

Apparently the new cases are in a ski resort in the Haute Savoie region . 

 

Edited February 8, 2020 by nick sussex

[Bristawl Si]

The issue with this strain of coronavirus is that normally healthy people who contract it are likely to think they have a severe common cold or a bout of flu.

And as health advice in the UK for many years has been to ride it out, take pain relievers to ease discomfort, and, more importantly, dont go to your doctors as there's nowt they can do. Therefore, there's a big chance people will contract it, but feel better within days or weeks (as per common cold or flu virus) i.e. many will not have a clue they've even caught this strain of coronavirus. 

Not saying there wont be cases where it is more severe, yes, as per influenza; deaths as per influenza as well, but many infected will not even realise.

John Edmunds, a professor at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said modelling showed there were 'ten times more cases than have been reported - or even more'. But he adds

"It's a mild disease that might be missed if somebody doesnt seek healthcare"

And exactly that is likely to become an issue, in many countries. Would you, or do you, go to your docs when you have, or have had, a heavy common cold or a bout of influenza? I certainly dont. 

And therein lies the healthcare dilemma for most countries.

Edited February 8, 2020 by Bristle boy