Novel Coronavirus – China

[DAVID SNOW]

28 minutes ago, Beverley Lass said:

British Airways has suspended all direct flights to and from mainland China because of the coronavirus outbreak, the airline has said.

 

BA suspends flights to and from mainland China

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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It comes as hundreds of foreign nationals are evacuated from the city of Wuhan, the centre of the outbreak.

 

All flights should have stopped 2 weeks ago, but what do I know.

[Snipper]

1 hour ago, DAVID SNOW said:

All flights should have stopped 2 weeks ago, but what do I know.

I ponder if the comments on here about the urgency and severity are similar to the hype about severe weather where posters are severely criticising the Met Office for not declaring a national emergency because of possible incoming weather. In the event frequently the hype turns into a no news day. 

[DAVID SNOW]

19 minutes ago, Snipper said:

I ponder if the comments on here about the urgency and severity are similar to the hype about severe weather where posters are severely criticising the Met Office for not declaring a national emergency because of possible incoming weather. In the event frequently the hype turns into a no news day. 

Yeah, would be stupid to warn of a blizzard several days after it struck....

[swebby]

1 hour ago, Yarmy said:

Update from the WHO:

WHO, China leaders discuss next steps in battle against coronavirus outbreak

WWW.WHO.INT

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The Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, today met President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China in Beijing. They shared the latest...

 

They still haven't yet reconvened the emergency committee though, so this has still not officially been declared a PHEIC (which it clearly is). Presumably, that will change in the next day or so, otherwise you have to ask what they are doing.

The WHO have faced criticism before for what some have deemed over cautious/unnecessary actions. You need to remember that global politics is involved in this and the WHO will be well aware that they are a body that needs to be funded by world governments via the UN. When you have know nothings like the big orange one throwing their weight around you can understand why the WHO may be taking a tip toe through broken glass approach.

I concur that this is exceptionally unlikely to be contained if the R0's being reported are accurate and it is contagious in the asymptomatic phase. WHO are probably not going to declare a PHEIC until they see clear evidence of unconstrained spread in a nation other than China.  Something that is worth noting.  India have not reported any cases. Yet!  Stick this in somewhere like Mumbai, light bue touch paper and retire a safe distance.........

Edited January 29, 2020 by swebby

[Snipper]

6 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Yeah, would be stupid to warn of a blizzard several days after it struck....

Yeah, also stupid to cry wolf too often.  Not saying this virus isn’t the real thing. Easy for us on here to hype it but more difficult for others where their words have a considerable impact and ramifications. Your damned if you do and you are damned if you don’t. 

[Beverley Lass]

The UK government plans to fly 200 British citizens out from Wuhan, the centre of the new coronavirus outbreak, on Thursday.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock has instructed officials to put them in quarantine for two weeks - possibly at a military base. Sources told the BBC they will be given the best possible medical care and advice.
 

Britons on Wuhan flights to be quarantined

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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They could be taken to a UK military base for two weeks, while they are tested for coronavirus.

 

[Methuselah]

The return of the Wuhan Clan?

[swebby]

12 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Though current infection rates appear to be increasing exponentially at some point I reckon they get a rude 'Bump' as better data emerges from China as the new health teams (swamping places like Wuhan?) 'catch up' on their paperwork?

By Fri/Sat I expect a big leap in both Deaths from China, and numbers infected, because of this clearer record keeping.

Unlike AGW this will be done and dusted by Sept if  'R' =2.5 (or above) so if AGW was 'Too slow!' for you then this little drama might be more to your taste?

There are other factors to consider that could (hopefully) counter act the appearance of a data bump. Chief among these would be public awareness and the lock down measures. Initial spread would follow the exponential growth as it was an unknown, the majority of the denizens of Wuhan were probably going around their daily business, looking forward to NY, blissfully unaware that this virus was circulating and so spreading it willy nilly. I doubt there is any chance of containment now, but what the measures will hopefully do is significantly slow the spread. 

[Puddy Galore]

No offence intended whatsoever to anyone anywhere but I do wonder if the time is fast approaching where the WHO and indeed the rest of the world needs to sensitively try bringing China to the table to discuss bringing them into line with modern food hygiene levels.  As an animal lover I find their practices very unpalatable (no pun intended) to say the least but on a practical world health  level, China needs to pay heed to the fact for some reason (at least from what I can remember) these novel viruses often emanate from their country so surely they must be asking a simple question - why us?  

[DAVID SNOW]

39 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Yeah, also stupid to cry wolf too often.  Not saying this virus isn’t the real thing. Easy for us on here to hype it but more difficult for others where their words have a considerable impact and ramifications. Your damned if you do and you are damned if you don’t. 

I personally    haven't hyped anything, I asked questions several days ago about any restrictions on flights to and from China because it seemed odd to me that there weren't any.

In rare cases like this your probably more damned if you don't!

Edited January 29, 2020 by DAVID SNOW

[swebby]

23 minutes ago, Snowycat said:

No offence intended whatsoever to anyone anywhere but I do wonder if the time is fast approaching where the WHO and indeed the rest of the world needs to sensitively try bringing China to the table to discuss bringing them into line with modern food hygiene levels.  As an animal lover I find their practices very unpalatable (no pun intended) to say the least but on a practical world health  level, China needs to pay heed to the fact for some reason (at least from what I can remember) these novel viruses often emanate from their country so surely they must be asking a simple question - why us?  

Why us?  To be fair to China, the principle reason is arguably sheer weight of numbers.

For example - Influenza. It is believed that the emergence of new strains of flu is related to it being zoonotic virus and as a result able to swap genetic material with different strains in different hosts. Chinese farming practices tends towards small holdings and results in pigs, ducks, chickens and humans living in close proximity.  But this is not something unique to China. If you go to any small holding in rural united kingdom then i suspect there is a high chance of you finding some of the following:- ducks, chickens, pigs, goats, sheep, dogs, cats, ponies and horses being kept in close proximity.  So why China and not rural Norfolk as the origin of a new virus? A population of 1.4 billion settled in the 3rd largest country in terms of land area means a lot more mall holdings than anywhere else. Basically, a target rich environment.

Bush meat however - yeah that's a slightly different matter. stop eating anything that moves, especially bats.

Edited January 29, 2020 by swebby

[Snipper]

1 hour ago, DAVID SNOW said:

I personally    haven't hyped anything, I asked questions several days ago about any restrictions on flights to and from China because it seemed odd to me that there weren't any.

In rare cases like this your probably more damned if you don't!

Well you/we ain’t downplaying it

[weirpig]

Not sure if been posted   however  a rough comparison with the Sars outbreak   if of course the numbers are correct 

Edited January 29, 2020 by weirpig

[DAVID SNOW]

56 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Well you/we ain’t downplaying it

Correct, no hype or downplaying.

[cheeky_monkey]

4 hours ago, General Cluster said:

The return of the Wuhan Clan?

about 10 days late

[Gray-Wolf]

Due to some spread outside China WHO will meet again tomorrow to see if they need declare it as an international 'Public Health Emergency'

 

[Bristawl Si]

Britons on the evacuation flight(s) will only be boarded if they agree to sign a waiver, where they agree to be kept in miltary quarantine for 2 weeks on their safe return to UK. Anyone not signing wont get on the plane.

[Snipper]

Do they pay for their flight and will they get duty free purchases?  Most unreasonable that they can’t get of the flight and spread anything they have around the place. 

[Bristawl Si]

18 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Do they pay for their flight and will they get duty free purchases?  Most unreasonable that they can’t get of the flight and spread anything they have around the place. 

I expect some of them will have a moan about their quarantine. Lucky for them they're being evacuated imho.

[Gray-Wolf]

There appeared to be some kind of scrabbling around this a.m. by our Govt.?

One of our people there (who had been on telly before as he had his Nan visiting & she had 'Health Concerns' ....and her Med.s were running out?) was on Breakfast TV saying he'd declined the flight as they were expected to 'find their own way home' and then 'self quarantine' for 2 weeks...... the chappie was quite mad at how bonkers this 'plan' was as folk would potentially be exposed as they travelled home & then, on top of that, it would be up to the individual if the respected their quarantine or not.....

so either the consulate passed in poor info or UK govt did a quick rethink due to public concerns over their 'Bastsoup' crazy thinking???

[Bristawl Si]

5 hours ago, swebby said:

Why us?  To be fair to China, the principle reason is arguably sheer weight of numbers.

For example - Influenza. It is believed that the emergence of new strains of flu is related to it being zoonotic virus and as a result able to swap genetic material with different strains in different hosts. Chinese farming practices tends towards small holdings and results in pigs, ducks, chickens and humans living in close proximity.  But this is not something unique to China. If you go to any small holding in rural united kingdom then i suspect there is a high chance of you finding some of the following:- ducks, chickens, pigs, goats, sheep, dogs, cats, ponies and horses being kept in close proximity.  So why China and not rural Norfolk as the origin of a new virus? A population of 1.4 billion settled in the 3rd largest country in terms of land area means a lot more mall holdings than anywhere else. Basically, a target rich environment.

Bush meat however - yeah that's a slightly different matter. stop eating anything that moves, especially bats.

The main issue is the numerous live animal markets found in every Chinese city, town and village. Numerous species of different animals, reptiles, etc kept in barbaric conditions, small cages, literally next to each other in all kinds if horrific conditions. Putting the treatment of animals aside, for one moment, the dreadful hygiene issue can only breed all sorts of diseases. An abhorrent society who still think ivory from Rhinos and Elephants somehow has miracle medicinal advantages to humans.

They have learnt next to nowt from SARs. 'They' were asked 20 years ago to sort this issue out, hopefully to prevent future similar outbreaks of disease, mutated from the way they keep and treat animals.

As for testing people here who may have returned from China in last few weeks. Start with the boarding schools, move on to the Unis and colleges. Restaurants, takeaways, nailbars, the various Chinatowns in our cities. Casinos after midnight. Wont screen everyone, but it would be a start. Stuff the sensitivity issue.

Edited January 29, 2020 by Bristle boy

[The PIT]

I would have started at the Unis there would be a lot chinese students plus others all in close contact with other students.

[swebby]

1 hour ago, Bristle boy said:

The main issue is the numerous live animal markets found in every Chinese city, town and village. Numerous species of different animals, reptiles, etc kept in barbaric conditions, small cages, literally next to each other in all kinds if horrific conditions. Putting the treatment of animals aside, for one moment, the dreadful hygiene issue can only breed all sorts of diseases. An abhorrent society who still think ivory from Rhinos and Elephants somehow has miracle medicinal advantages to humans.

They have learnt next to nowt from SARs. 'They' were asked 20 years ago to sort this issue out, hopefully to prevent future similar outbreaks of disease, mutated from the way they keep and treat animals.

As for testing people here who may have returned from China in last few weeks. Start with the boarding schools, move on to the Unis and colleges. Restaurants, takeaways, nailbars, the various Chinatowns in our cities. Casinos after midnight. Wont screen everyone, but it would be a start. Stuff the sensitivity issue.

Seems to me the they have learnt plenty at least in what to do when an outbreak of something occurs. The lock downs are truly exceptional measures, they have more or less quarantined a city of 10 million souls and that is staggering.

I do agree that live animal markets could exacerbate the problem. That many different species with that high a through put of specimens will allow some species jumps that would be "very" unlikely otherwise. Putting aside the animal welfare argument for a mo, getting rid of these markets overnight will not however prevent the problem. You would have to eradicate the farming practices which allow the close proximity of different animal species, especially pigs, and as i said in my original post, that practice is global and not something limited to China.

In regards to the testing and sensitivity issues. I think pitching up at every takeaway and demanding biological specimens is not likely to be helpful or effective, in fact it may even do harm to future attempts to manage a situation. To the best of my knowledge there are no strain specific tests for this yet* so we are going to have to culture the samples and that takes time. So short of "interning" everyone that has returned from China and anyone that has had contact from those that have returned from China while you conduct tests, you will not achieve a great deal. Better to educate and request that anyone that is remotely symptomatic and fits the criteria for an at risk individual presents themselves to the health authorities asap.

*have read that a small biotech company that had incidentally produced monoclonal antibodies to various coronaviruses is testing for specificity for this strain.  If they get a positive result that would be good news indeed as the production of an assay that gives quick results would be a lot nearer. 

Edited January 29, 2020 by swebby

[Spikecollie]

6 hours ago, Snowycat said:

No offence intended whatsoever to anyone anywhere but I do wonder if the time is fast approaching where the WHO and indeed the rest of the world needs to sensitively try bringing China to the table to discuss bringing them into line with modern food hygiene levels.  As an animal lover I find their practices very unpalatable (no pun intended) to say the least but on a practical world health  level, China needs to pay heed to the fact for some reason (at least from what I can remember) these novel viruses often emanate from their country so surely they must be asking a simple question - why us?  

You might have missed my comments regarding China where people "eat anything that moves". I think it was probably the one country which I have visited where I experienced true culture shock. I visited Hangzhou for a week's work but as usual I made the absolute most of the time I had. I will never forget going to one supermarket which stocked normal brands like Coca Cola and Budweiser (not that I would buy either of those brands!) and having a wander around the fruit and veg areas. Nearby were some large plastic tubs containg dozens of enormous toads which were clambering on each other in order to get out of the tubs. There were toads hopping about on the floor!

While the animal husbandry practices of many countries go against my own beliefs and I would like to see much more worldwide respect for our fellow sentient beings, it is a morally difficult terrain to navigate - who are we to say what you can eat and kill and how...

There is no doubt that the food habits in China can and do contribute toward outbreaks of species jumping disease. Over population adds to this. Unless we address these issues as a global community the resultant problems will not go away.

[Gray-Wolf]

1 hour ago, Spikecollie said:

 

While the animal husbandry practices of many countries go against my own beliefs and I would like to see much more worldwide respect for our fellow sentient beings, it is a morally difficult terrain to navigate - who are we to say what you can eat and kill and how...

We'd better crack on with Lab grown proteins then!

Edited January 29, 2020 by Gray-Wolf