Novel Coronavirus – China

[Gray-Wolf]

3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Could this be the first pandemic that infects each and every one of us, worldwide?

I doubt it very much...Some lucky buggers will have inborn immunity. Just as they do with Plague, Ebola, Spanish flu, Lassa fever, Marburgh...you name it?

Common cold?

I've yet to meet anyone who has escaped that coronavirus Pete?

[fujita5]

It's something I've never done, but I'm considering getting a few extra bits each time I go shopping from tomorrow onwards. Dried goods e.g. pasta and rice, tinned fish, beans etc.

I'd rather plan it and have some extra supplies in my cupboard before panic buying ensues. Which it will if it gets any kind of foothold in the UK. Plus there'll be the usual riots, burning buildings in London and other cities which will fuel the panic.

Beyond the extra shopping I don't know what else I'll do. I can work from home so can hunker down if I feel the need.

Edited January 27, 2020 by fujita5

[Snipper]

19 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

 

Beyond the extra shopping I don't know what else I'll do. 

Take your Valium Mr Mannering. Don’t panic!

[Methuselah]

26 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Common cold?

I've yet to meet anyone who has escaped that coronavirus Pete?

But the clue there, Ian, might be that not only is the common cold an extremely trivial complaint, it's not the result of a single virus; and God only knows how many viruses cause 'cold' symptoms...?

I'm nae suggesting we should all just laugh-off this latest coronavirus (I thinks it's far too serious for that) just that a measure of perspective is used.

And Youtube, Twitter and Facebook might not be the best places in which to find perspective...?

 

[4wd]

Deja vu

 

[Daniel*]

42 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Could this be the first pandemic that infects each and every one of us, worldwide?

I doubt it very much...Some lucky buggers will have inborn immunity. Just as they do with Plague, Ebola, Spanish flu, Lassa fever, Marburgh...you name it?

There is zero immunity, it was like when Europeans came to Americas they brought measles, smallpox etc the populations had never been exposed, and the result was disastrous but over time this paved to resistance. With what we are looking at, it is a question of how good your immune system is in fighting off severity, and how lucky you are avoiding it. A catastrophic pandemic is clearly inevitable, this won’t be that but people fail to understand we are at the mercy of Mother Nature sometimes. 

[Snipper]

So will this be better or worse because it is winter?  All nicely shut up together with limited fresh air?

[nick sussex]

What’s surprising so far is the lack of cases in Europe .

Even allowing for the possible incubation period. One would have expected more cases.

[Snipper]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

What’s surprising so far is the lack of cases in Europe .

Even allowing for the possible incubation period. One would have expected more cases.

Lull before the storm?

[fujita5]

19 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Take your Valium Mr Mannering. Don’t panic!

I'm not panicking, but a lot of people will if it kicks off over here. Staying one step ahead... 

[Snipper]

Just now, fujita5 said:

I'm not panicking, but a lot of people will if it kicks off over here. Staying one step ahead... 

I was slightly joking.

Always be ahead of the game. Can’t help thinking about the millennium bug in computers when people were stock piling. Our biggest threat is mis information. Shut down Twitter, Facebook and the rest would be a good start. 

[Gray-Wolf]

10 minutes ago, 4wd said:

Deja vu

 

Indeed old friend but then why would it not be so?

These zoonotic transfers have occurred since we 'tamed/domesticated animals'?

As long as we live with them , trough down on them, there will be a chance of migration/transfer of their 'ills' to us?

So what has me twitched?

Modern 'connectivity' shrinking response times to whatever arises to those we see today

Had the Spanish flu been recognised (as we do to such today) while those troops were embarking on their transports home would they ever have been allowed to disembark 3 weeks later?

We'd have been mad to unload 'plague ships' into an unsuspecting community would we not?

Yet ,here we are, shipping folk around the globe in 24 hrs, from 'plague cities'.....what do we expect?

[fujita5]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

What’s surprising so far is the lack of cases in Europe .

Even allowing for the possible incubation period. One would have expected more cases.

From various reports I've read, the symptoms are relatively mild at first, becoming more severe over a week or so. So perhaps there are more cases but not yet diagnosed

Plus only 25% of cases end up severe... So 75% may just appear to have a bad winter cold.

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

What’s surprising so far is the lack of cases in Europe .

Even allowing for the possible incubation period. One would have expected more cases.

They have had some in France already - you need to get yourself a mask ASAP.

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Lull before the storm?

If you think of the first case reported Dec 31st .

And the lockdowns in China didn’t go into place for over 3 weeks . Even the lack of cases in countries close to China .

It just seems a bit strange . 

[Azores Hi]

55 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Common cold?

I've yet to meet anyone who has escaped that coronavirus Pete?

Coronavirus is responsible for around 15% of colds. 

[Snipper]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

If you think of the first case reported Dec 31st .

And the lockdowns in China didn’t go into place for over 3 weeks . Even the lack of cases in countries close to China .

It just seems a bit strange . 

Very quickly gone from the top of the news after a few days of excitement. As the news feeds on disaster hardly surprising I suppose. 

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

They have had some in France already - you need to get yourself a mask ASAP.

The French are far too fashion conscious to be wearing masks ! 

I’ll admit I was a bit concerned when a case showed up in Bordeaux . That’s a little close for comfort although still around 3 hours away ! 

The French health minister has confirmed tests carried out today on some suspected cases came back negative .

So far just 3 cases reported and they all were in Wuhan before coming back to France .

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

What’s surprising so far is the lack of cases in Europe .

Even allowing for the possible incubation period. One would have expected more cases.

Germany have just confirmed their first case. Also Sri Lanka global spread...

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, Snipper said:

So will this be better or worse because it is winter?  All nicely shut up together with limited fresh air?

It’s flu season go figure, it really is the worst time of year. Falling with Chinese year as well. They must be taking huge precautionary measures, you can’t tell any difference with the onset of either. It is an impossible challenge I think the virus will just have to run its course. When it runs out of a host the virus will die out.

[Beverley Lass]

[Gael_Force]

Quote

Our study rejects the hypothesis of emergence as a result of

a recent recombination event. Notably, the new coronavirus provides a new lineage

for almost half of its genome, with no close genetic relationships to other viruses

within the subgenus of sarbecovirus. This genomic part comprises also half of the

spike region encoding a multifunctional protein responsible also for virus entry into

host cells[30, 31]. The unique genetic features of 2019-nCoV and their potential

association with virus characteristics and virulence in humans remain to be elucidated

 

Full-genome evolutionary analysis of the novel corona virus (2019-nCoV) rejects the hypothesis of emergence as a result of a recent recombination event

WWW.BIORXIV.ORG

---

bioRxiv - the preprint server for biology, operated by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, a research and educational institution

Curioser and curioser ......

something unknown has been added to allow it to attack humans?

 

Edited January 28, 2020 by Gael_Force

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

 

[swebby]

48 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Full-genome evolutionary analysis of the novel corona virus (2019-nCoV) rejects the hypothesis of emergence as a result of a recent recombination event

WWW.BIORXIV.ORG

---

bioRxiv - the preprint server for biology, operated by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, a research and educational institution

Curioser and curioser ......

something unknown has been added to allow it to attack humans?

 

Bats.  It's always bats!

I wonder if this ever goes the other way, bat's catching a novel virus from us?

 

[swebby]

15 hours ago, fujita5 said:

It's something I've never done, but I'm considering getting a few extra bits each time I go shopping from tomorrow onwards. Dried goods e.g. pasta and rice, tinned fish, beans etc.

I'd rather plan it and have some extra supplies in my cupboard before panic buying ensues. Which it will if it gets any kind of foothold in the UK. Plus there'll be the usual riots, burning buildings in London and other cities which will fuel the panic.

Beyond the extra shopping I don't know what else I'll do. I can work from home so can hunker down if I feel the need.

When i were young...... the run was always on baked beans, milk and sliced bread. The last heavy snow a couple of years back? it was fresh pizza and freshly squeezed fruit juice shelves that were empty, times are a changing!

Have to admit, i have stocked up things that has the potential be hit long term by travel/economic disruption, such as rice. Not so much in expectation that international freight will be stopped, but more disruption to production supply lines by depots, offices, ports and factories operating at reduced capacity if people stay away from work.  Had a situation back during the Beijing olympics where a common laboratory solvent became incredibly difficult to obtain and went through a 10 fold increase in price in a week because the Chinese authorities closed down the factories that produced it as a by-product to deal with their smog issue. Funnily enough, stocking up on that at work.