Novel Coronavirus – China

[Beverley Lass]

The high smoking rates in the Chinese male population surely won't help them combat the virus either..... 

China has the largest smoking population in the world, with around 316 million adult smokers,

and accounts for nearly one-third (30%) of smokers and 40% of tobacco consumption worldwide (4).

In 2015, smoking prevalence was 27.7% (52.1% among men and 2.7% among women) (5).12 Mar 2019

[swebby]

58 minutes ago, Beverley Lass said:

The high smoking rates in the Chinese male population surely won't help them combat the virus either..... 

China has the largest smoking population in the world, with around 316 million adult smokers,

and accounts for nearly one-third (30%) of smokers and 40% of tobacco consumption worldwide (4).

In 2015, smoking prevalence was 27.7% (52.1% among men and 2.7% among women) (5).12 Mar 2019

Nor the air pollution.

[Gray-Wolf]

50 minutes ago, Beverley Lass said:

The high smoking rates in the Chinese male population surely won't help them combat the virus either..... 

China has the largest smoking population in the world, with around 316 million adult smokers,

and accounts for nearly one-third (30%) of smokers and 40% of tobacco consumption worldwide (4).

In 2015, smoking prevalence was 27.7% (52.1% among men and 2.7% among women) (5).12 Mar 2019

?

By next weekend (Sunday), if infections continue to double daily,we will have 248,000 cases recognised.......that's the 25% that have symptoms serious enough to present so closer to a million folk with it/passing it on?

You can see how fast things progress that week if total 'carriers' are 1 million by Sunday next?(248,000 in treatment and 744,000 carrying but without serious symptoms?) 2 million on Monday, 4 by Tuesday, 8 by Wednesday, 16 by Thursday, 32 million by Friday.......and so on.....and so on.....

But then that week we will see if CNY has 'upped the ante' by rapidly putting carriers across the globe?

Again I ask what is 2% of the global population (if that is the mortality rate?)?

Where do we put the bodies when we reach peak mortality in the UK?

Last time it was 'School Halls' that would become temporary morgues (as schools will be closed to reduce infection rates).......I wonder if such contingencies still hold true?

But then all of this is conjecture based on the (surely?) flawed data we have received this week (esp. out of Huwan?)

Both the 'R' numbers and mortality rates are suspect a.t.m. & reports coming (purportedly) from inside Huwan's 4 hospitals (soon to be 6 hospitals.......) paint a far grimmer picture of both the 'R' number (14???!!!???) & death rate (over 10% of all cases no matter age or health????)

Wherever we are in all of this I think it's time we need to accept that we WILL get the virus (over time) and so must hope that we are not in the 25% that see serious symptoms or the 2-10% to whom it proves fatal?

C est la vie eh?

 

[Beverley Lass]

You put a ? on my statement Gray-Wolf.
What I meant was, folks that smoke will likely suffer more from this lung virus and a great many Chinese do smoke.
Also as swebby points out, heavy air pollution will add to the difficulties  too.

 

[Snipper]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I will die of it 100% because of my alcoholic liver damage and probably coronary heart disease and lung diseases through smoking loads.

So a healthy life style won’t help?

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Snipper said:

So a healthy life style won’t help?

Yes it would - but the damage is already done now - you cannot turn the clock back - i have already done this for 25 years!! - nothing i can do within a few weeks in case i catch it!!

[Snipper]

26 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes it would - but the damage is already done now - you cannot turn the clock back - i have already done this for 25 years!! - nothing i can do within a few weeks in case i catch it!!

Hind sight is brilliant after the event I suppose. 
 

The only thing I have smoked recently is a side of salmon yesterday. Tastes vey nice to.  Fags always made me cough even though I inhaled to the back of my mouth to try and look well hard back in the day.  Ok also bottled up 6 gallons of beer today but that is shared between 6 of us. 
 

Now I don’t really care what anyone thinks, with some very important exceptions. 
 

Hope you keep going ok. Like your posts. 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Snipper said:

Hind sight is brilliant after the event I suppose. 
 

The only thing I have smoked recently is a side of salmon yesterday. Tastes vey nice to.  Fags always made me cough even though I inhaled to the back of my mouth to try and look well hard back in the day.  Ok also bottled up 6 gallons of beer today but that is shared between 6 of us. 
 

Now I don’t really care what anyone thinks, with some very important exceptions. 
 

Hope you keep going ok. Like your posts. 

Im running out of beer - drink 4 cans of special brew every day usually but only got 20 quid to last me 2 weeks - withdrawal symptoms will shaft me.

[Gray-Wolf]

39 minutes ago, Beverley Lass said:

You put a ? on my statement Gray-Wolf.
What I meant was, folks that smoke will likely suffer more from this lung virus and a great many Chinese do smoke.
Also as swebby points out, heavy air pollution will add to the difficulties  too.

 

The Tar/Mucus smokers have coating their lungs is like an internal N95 mask.....

I know (as a pipe smoker) we tend to not get 'colds' as easy but if we do get them there's a lot of gunk we have to bring up!!!

[Snipper]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Im running out of beer - drink 4 cans of special brew every day usually but only got 20 quid to last me 2 weeks - withdrawal symptoms will shaft me.

Brew a wide range of beers as my son thought I needed a micro brewery.  So turned up on Father’s Day a couple of years ago with all the equipment. Well he fancied one and I had the ideal space. Also some experience.

Use to make beer many years ago. Usually tasted a bit awful but drank it anyway. This is in a serious different and better league.

Keeps me off the streets. Nice giving friends a bottle or two from time to time.

Experienced for more years than I want to remember not having  anything much to spend. 

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Brew a wide range of beers as my son thought I needed a micro brewery.  So turned up on Father’s Day a couple of years ago with all the equipment. Well he fancied one and I had the ideal space. Also some experience.

Use to make beer many years ago. Usually tasted a bit awful but drank it anyway. This is in a serious different and better league.

Keeps me off the streets. Nice giving friends a bottle or two from time to time.

Experienced for more years than I want to remember not having  anything much to spend. 

I like strong stuff though - i want to distil pure alcohol so i can just inject myself with it when i have got the shakes.

[Spikecollie]

In response to Feb1991 - a healthy lifestyle will always help you no matter what stage you are at with what you have got. You'll feel better and that alone can give you the motivation for all sorts of other things.

I've had 'flu too, I got the H5N1 jobby back in whenever it was - yes it felt like the grim reaper was knocking at the door but I hadn't got the energy to answer! I firmly believe that the better you maintain your body, the better it responds to anything that attacks it. I've had a nasty throat infection this week, I thought it was the start of 'flu but it just stayed put. I respected my body, walked with my dog instead of our normal running and it has passed.

The current outbreak is really nothing novel at all. A country whose people - and I have seen it for myself - that, in the words of one of my ex-colleagues who was an expert in Chinese culture "eat anything that moves" is always going to be extra-vulnerable to infections that can jump the species gap. The virus will peak then trough like all these things do and as epidemiologists have already pointed out, the mortality rate is very very much lower than that for normal seasonal 'flu.

Even though I'm healthy, I now always have my vaccine!

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I like strong stuff though - i want to distil pure alcohol so i can just inject myself with it when i have got the shakes.

Crikey, that is the worst thing to do.. That will just increase your tolerance 10 fold and do further harm at a rapid pace, making the cravings and withdrawals even worse. Do you not have a local charity recovery unit you can get a detox from? I have another detox next month which I'm hoping will get me off the poison once and for all

Edited January 26, 2020 by Essex Easterly

[Snipper]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I like strong stuff though - i want to distil pure alcohol so i can just inject myself with it when i have got the shakes.

Each to their own. 

[feb1991blizzard]

I feel ok though, i can function perfectly well with huge amounts of Alcohol in my system and tend to function less well without it - i am not planning on living more than a few more years - just wan't the cost of alcohol to come down and a decent winter and that will do me.

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I feel ok though, i can function perfectly well with huge amounts of Alcohol in my system and tend to function less well without it - i am not planning on living more than a few more years - just wan't the cost of alcohol to come down and a decent winter and that will do me.

You're a decent lad. It's a shame to see you talking like this.

Alcohol addiction is evil.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

You're a decent lad. It's a shame to see you talking like this.

Alcohol addiction is evil.

No - I am fine - beer is our tradition - smoking bans and expensive beer is killing out culture - its in our blood - red wine even represents the blood of christ, all our traditions are going and everywhere is health freak mediterranean food resturants. we need to fight to keep our country.

[Bristawl Si]

12 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

In response to Feb1991 - a healthy lifestyle will always help you no matter what stage you are at with what you have got. You'll feel better and that alone can give you the motivation for all sorts of other things.

I've had 'flu too, I got the H5N1 jobby back in whenever it was - yes it felt like the grim reaper was knocking at the door but I hadn't got the energy to answer! I firmly believe that the better you maintain your body, the better it responds to anything that attacks it. I've had a nasty throat infection this week, I thought it was the start of 'flu but it just stayed put. I respected my body, walked with my dog instead of our normal running and it has passed.

The current outbreak is really nothing novel at all. A country whose people - and I have seen it for myself - that, in the words of one of my ex-colleagues who was an expert in Chinese culture "eat anything that moves" is always going to be extra-vulnerable to infections that can jump the species gap. The virus will peak then trough like all these things do and as epidemiologists have already pointed out, the mortality rate is very very much lower than that for normal seasonal 'flu.

Even though I'm healthy, I now always have my vaccine!

Great post

[swebby]

21 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

In response to Feb1991 - a healthy lifestyle will always help you no matter what stage you are at with what you have got. You'll feel better and that alone can give you the motivation for all sorts of other things.

I've had 'flu too, I got the H5N1 jobby back in whenever it was - yes it felt like the grim reaper was knocking at the door but I hadn't got the energy to answer! I firmly believe that the better you maintain your body, the better it responds to anything that attacks it. I've had a nasty throat infection this week, I thought it was the start of 'flu but it just stayed put. I respected my body, walked with my dog instead of our normal running and it has passed.

The current outbreak is really nothing novel at all. A country whose people - and I have seen it for myself - that, in the words of one of my ex-colleagues who was an expert in Chinese culture "eat anything that moves" is always going to be extra-vulnerable to infections that can jump the species gap. The virus will peak then trough like all these things do and as epidemiologists have already pointed out, the mortality rate is very very much lower than that for normal seasonal 'flu.

Even though I'm healthy, I now always have my vaccine!

 

Curious to which expert(s) have come up with that observation?

Mortality rate of seasonal Flu is 0.2% or lower, that is 1 death in 500 cases.

Currently we are at 56 deaths and 2000 cases, so that makes it an order of magnitude more fatal.

Wondering if what you have heard was a comparison with SARS? In that case, yes it is a lot lower.

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

@feb1991blizzard Just sending you a PM now
 

[Spikecollie]

5 minutes ago, swebby said:

 

Curious to which expert(s) have come up with that observation?

Mortality rate of seasonal Flu is 0.2% or lower, that is 1 death in 500 cases.

Currently we are at 56 deaths and 2000 cases, so that makes it an order of magnitude more fatal.

Wondering if what you have heard was a comparison with SARS? In that case, yes it is a lot lower.

“Most people feel this is somewhere on a spectrum between a relatively mild infection and SARS, which had a very high case-fatality rate,” says Mark Woolhouse at the University of Edinburgh, UK.

[Gray-Wolf]

Comparisons with 'seasonal flu' are pointless if 'R' is anything over 3

We do not ALL catch Flu in one year do we?

This virus may well infect every last one of us over the next 18 months

Work out the global deaths from 'seasonal flu' if every soul on the planet caught it over 18 months.....

[swebby]

1 minute ago, Spikecollie said:

“Most people feel this is somewhere on a spectrum between a relatively mild infection and SARS, which had a very high case-fatality rate,” says Mark Woolhouse at the University of Edinburgh, UK.

That seems a fair assessment.  With a bit of luck it will come down a bit further now the authorities and public are aware of what they are dealing with, i.e. earlier presentation to hospitals and better targeted treatment will lead to better prognosis.

 

[Gray-Wolf]

I still think some folk are not 'getting' this whole scene?

If the death rate is one percent (and ALL the global population WILL  eventually get it?) then over 'peak infection' that is a lot of bodies/losses/human tragedies?

1% of 7.5 billion? .....anyone???

[Gael_Force]

14 minutes ago, swebby said:

 

Curious to which expert(s) have come up with that observation?

Mortality rate of seasonal Flu is 0.2% or lower, that is 1 death in 500 cases.

Currently we are at 56 deaths and 2000 cases, so that makes it an order of magnitude more fatal.

Wondering if what you have heard was a comparison with SARS? In that case, yes it is a lot lower.

Reference thread by an epidemiologist: he has statistics and R0 figures for comparison.