Novel Coronavirus – China

[The PIT]

Neither does the flu jab stop you getting flu. Just pure luck if they predict the right virus. I haven't bothered with the jab for years.

One snippet in the media frenzy was that they were other factors in the death so far.

 

[Yarmy]

1 hour ago, abruzzi spur said:

Influenza?  You realise that an average case of flu knocks you out for at least a week or more.  In bed, feeling like death.  Flu is not a cold.  People say they've got the flu when most of the time they haven't and they'd sure as anything know if they did.

Very true. I got flu along with my wife a couple of years ago before Christmas. Jesus wept, I’ve never known anything like it. Ate literally nothing for 4 straight days, and my wife got her friend to take to A&E in the middle of the night as she thought she was going to die. I’ve paid for the vaccine ever since, and despite what people say it *is* designed to be effective against multiple strains.

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Very true. I got flu along with my wife a couple of years ago before Christmas. Jesus wept, I’ve never known anything like it. Ate literally nothing for 4 straight days, and my wife got her friend to take to A&E in the middle of the night as she thought she was going to die. I’ve paid for the vaccine ever since, and despite what people say it *is* designed to be effective against multiple strains.

Aye, the flu is NASTY.

Had it in Feb 2007 and as you say, it makes you feel that you've genuinely not long for this world.

[Daniel*]

14 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Aye, the flu is NASTY.

Had it in Feb 2007 and as you say, it makes you feel that you've genuinely not long for this world.

I came down with the flu last month fortunately it cleared just by Xmas, I never ate anything in 3 days, very lethargic I was basically bed bound. Fever and chills, pounding headache. It was strange though how quickly I got over it think it was fourth day, I woke up and felt substantially better but still felt quite weak. I’m not in at risk group though so this virus personally I don’t see it as a real threat to my survival, but my mum is 61 and has a bad immune system, so it would concern me a great deal. In an ideal world we would have stopped flights from Wuhan but even now it is too late, we live in an interconnected globalised world and ££ is more important than ordinary people’s lives.

Edited January 25, 2020 by Daniel*

[Cheshire Freeze]

42 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I came down with the flu last month fortunately it cleared just by Xmas, I never ate anything in 3 days, very lethargic I was basically bed bound. Fever and chills, pounding headache. It was strange though how quickly I got over it think it was fourth day, I woke up and felt substantially better but still felt quite weak. I’m not in at risk group though so this virus personally I don’t see it as a real threat to my survival, but my mum is 61 and has a bad immune system, so it would concern me a great deal. In an ideal world we would have stopped flights from Wuhan but even now it is too late, we live in an interconnected globalised world and ££ is more important than ordinary people’s lives.

Yeah but how much is it going to cost when the economy tanks because no-one can get to work?

Too much short termism when we should be prepared for the worst longer term.

[Daniel*]

 

[Snipper]

8 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Yeah but how much is it going to cost when the economy tanks because no-one can get to work?

Isn’t the economy tanking what is suggested to counter global warming? Rather ignores everyone left twiddling their thumbs. If still alive of course 

 

[Snipper]

The next awful thing, if there was a serious outbreak here, would be it would snow and nobody could get out and enjoy it. 

[Gael_Force]

A snip from Chinese authorities presser...

Quote

2. How is the new virus different from SARS?

Ma Xiaowei said that the current situation of the epidemic is grim and complicated, and it is in a critical period of prevention and control. Judging from the scope of transmission, the outbreak is currently outbreaking in Wuhan, with multiple points spreading nationwide. From the characteristics of transmission, the patient's early body temperature is not high or normal, and there are many mild cases. The infectivity of the virus has increased, and walking infection sources have greatly increased the difficulty of prevention and control.

From the observations, the virus incubation period is about 10 days, the shortest incubation period is one day, and the longest incubation period is 14 days. The incubation period is contagious, which is very different from SARS.

The development of the epidemic is accelerating, and from now on, it will continue for some time. The increase in some cases is also likely to occur in the coming period.

The text in red will be a big problem for control measures.

[Yarmy]

Twitter

MOBILE.TWITTER.COM

 

Building a thousand bed hospital in 2 weeks. Just imagine trying to do that here. The NHS is already struggling, especially at this time of year. A large scale outbreak doesn’t bear thinking about.

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, Yarmy said:

Twitter

MOBILE.TWITTER.COM

 

Building a thousand bed hospital in 2 weeks. Just imagine trying to do that here. The NHS is already struggling, especially at this time of year. A large scale outbreak doesn’t bear thinking about.

Not just one hospital but two now being built, this one with 1,300 beds shows how it is an epidemic in Wuhan.

 

[Daniel*]

This is big folks as far as I’m aware this is rare, it has mutated to be more spreadable.

 

[cyclonic happiness]

16 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The problem is with these kinds of flu like viruses - they mutate so will a vaccination be effective once developed, there is a vaccination for pneumonia but this virus is so much more likely to mutate.

Spanish flu apparently had a 10% - 20% mortality rate and killed around 3-4% of the world's population, we don't know enough about the mortality rates as it stands, 1-5% mortality sounds similar to ordinary flu?.

But, this seems much more sinister, I've never seen the world react (overract?) to a pandemic, like this before.

We could do with a couple of more weeks of watching to gather more information, but do we have the time....?

[cyclonic happiness]

15 hours ago, General Cluster said:

Well ciel, I believe I contracted the 2010 flu from the bus between Beckenham and Penge---and, who knows how many folks I infected before it wiped me out, for three whole days, on Boxing Day?

Did I get it from a virus-encrusted surface, or from airborne droplets, courtesy of some other soon-to-be-bedridden schmuck? So, do I think that a novel coronavirus is an existential threat? Of course I do! 

But, before we start whining (It's the Chinese! It''s the EU! It's the Wokes! ...) we ought to concentrate on curtailing its spread?

 

 

I have two dates for the hospital in the next two weeks, I'm starting to wonder whether it'll be safe to go, as the first place the sick will think of going, is the hospital.

They will be virus factories, what with all those people and the heating tuned up to maximum (seemingly).

I've got stitches to take out, and I've only just got over a bout of heavy cold....what to do ay? what to do?

Maybe this will just be another SARS or Bird Flu, but I think we all know it's not.

[Daniel*]

Seems we are learning more about the virus and it is not good, in that time from 12th only now some might be presenting symptoms. 

case

[cyclonic happiness]

14 hours ago, Yarmy said:

Very true. I got flu along with my wife a couple of years ago before Christmas. Jesus wept, I’ve never known anything like it. Ate literally nothing for 4 straight days, and my wife got her friend to take to A&E in the middle of the night as she thought she was going to die. I’ve paid for the vaccine ever since, and despite what people say it *is* designed to be effective against multiple strains.

I haven't had the flu since around 1992, I remember lying in bed after eating nothing for days on end, cramps, dry vomiting, severe headache, fever, hallucinations. The only time in my life that I wished myself dead

I had the flu jab around 2 1/2 weeks ago, then immediately caught a bad cold (although I might have already had it?) so 'hopefully' this will have a least a bit of protection.  

 

[cyclonic happiness]

4 hours ago, Snipper said:

The next awful thing, if there was a serious outbreak here, would be it would snow and nobody could get out and enjoy it. 

I doubt it, not even the end of the world could make it snow in lowland England

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Just found a link to a live tracker here:

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

GISANDDATA.MAPS.ARCGIS.COM

---

 

 

[swebby]

15 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its not the complexity - it just doesn't work or its cold - simple as that.

Plus in reply to others wrt flu, why if it wasn't the flu that i was regularly catching did i suddenly go from regularly having the flu in winter to having a winter without it whatsoever the first time i had the vaccine then?

EDIT : The flu vaccine does not stop you getting a common cold.

I've given my opinion before on telling the difference between Flu and common colds.

"Colds make you feel like death, Flu makes you wish you were dead."

Feb - i'm also skeptical that you would have contracted Flu that regularly (no one should be that unlucky) so i'm wondering if you possibly had something else that is as unpleasant, has a tendency to linger in terms of symptoms and flares up based on lifestyle? Glandular fever and viral meningitis are the kinds of things i'm thinking of but there are plenty of other less common viral infections that can lay you low for months on end.  Either way, important thing is that your free of it now.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, swebby said:

I've given my opinion before on telling the difference between Flu and common colds.

"Colds make you feel like death, Flu makes you wish you were dead."

Feb - i'm also skeptical that you would have contracted Flu that regularly (no one should be that unlucky) so i'm wondering if you possibly had something else that is as unpleasant, has a tendency to linger in terms of symptoms and flares up based on lifestyle? Glandular fever and viral meningitis are the kinds of things i'm thinking of but there are plenty of other less common viral infections that can lay you low for months on end.  Either way, important thing is that your free of it now.

I have had glandular fever i think - but it doesn't recur - its as bad if not worse than flu but without the sneezes and respiritory poblems - but  the pain in your bones is really bad and it lasts about 3 weeks

[swebby]

17 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The problem is with these kinds of flu like viruses - they mutate so will a vaccination be effective once developed, there is a vaccination for pneumonia but this virus is so much more likely to mutate.

It depends on the level of mutation but any vaccine developed should offer some level of immunity compared to what we currently have at the moment which is no immunity what so ever.  This is important in that even if not fully effective it may slow the spread to some extent, and more importantly, reduce the possibility that a patient will require critical care.  The 25% of cases ending up in ICU at the moment is scary. Suggests that anyone that is not in very good health, is elderly or a young child will require hospital care and no health system is going to cope with that.

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, swebby said:

It depends on the level of mutation but any vaccine developed should offer some level of immunity compared to what we currently have at the moment which is no immunity what so ever.  This is important in that even if not fully effective it may slow the spread to some extent, and more importantly, reduce the possibility that a patient will require critical care.  The 25% of cases ending up in ICU at the moment is scary. Suggests that anyone that is not in very good health, is elderly or a young child will require hospital care and no health system is going to cope with that.

I will die of it 100% because of my alcoholic liver damage and probably coronary heart disease and lung diseases through smoking loads.

[swebby]

1 hour ago, Gael_Force said:

A snip from Chinese authorities presser...

The text in red will be a big problem for control measures.

Yep, had my doubts that this would be contained as i would be with any airborne virus that is, moderately contagious and has already established itself in a conurbation.  If it is infectious before it is symptomatic, then it's almost certainly out of the bag. 

Makes me wonder if some of what the Chinese authorities are now doing is more for political effect, virtue signalling if you will to say "look guys, we tried our best to contain it" when fingers inevitably get pointed.

[swebby]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I will die of it 100% because of my alcoholic liver damage and probably coronary heart disease and lung diseases through smoking loads.

Something to consider that may offer some reassurance.  As a novel virus spreads through a host population there is a possibility, tendency even, for it's worst effects to be attenuated to some extent.  As a virus is carried by more hosts, simple law of increasing #'s means more mutations. From an evolutionary perspective, once a virus has established a suitable host, killing that host is not advantageous to it spreading, so the less virulent strains tend to dominate.

[Gray-Wolf]

Since Monday we've seen the official tallies from the authorities double each day

Yesterday we stood at 1,000 infected , today 2,000+ infected

Now remember only 25% of folk present at clinics/hospitals, others have colds or mild symptoms so do not bother

So we're spreading as we're incubating eh?

How many folk will begin their treks home from CNY tomorrow?

So , 1 to 14 days incubation has us potentially into week 2 Feb before we see those numbers turn up in the stats but how many will they infect over that 1 to 14 days of 'feeling fine'???

If it has an 'R' value over 4 then we ALL will be exposed to it eventually

How many deaths is 2% of the global population then?

How do you deal with the corpses when we hit peak rates of infection (3 to 6 months time?)?

I read 'up thread' that most deaths were in the over 50's?

The update we all received on Tuesday (from the Chief Chinese medical Officer) disagrees with this.

He made it plain that 50% of deaths were under 49 with no underlying health issues (obviously if you're already a bit crook then thing will be worse for you!) but do not think youth/functioning autoimmune system means you'll be OK when it comes to your turn to 'share' the virus!!!