Novel Coronavirus – China

[Daniel*]

The scale of problem is clearly much greater.... this one is being underestimated by WHO I’m very confident.

 

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm sure we are not seeing a coherent picture from 'on the ground' there Daniel but I think a lot of that might be due to overstretch rather than any sinister reasons for keeping data from the public?

If it's bad then we will know by the start of next week as we ought to see a large leap in cases over the weekend from folk infected from last weekend & before?

If we do see this then get ready for the numbers these cases (and the ones who are not sick enough to present?) have infected over this past week?

By the second weekend in Feb any CNY spike will have arrived but , by then, we may already have a clearer idea how things are..... or are not!

[Snipper]

Always difficult to judge on the spur of the moment what is right or wrong as far as reports are concerned. 
One thing is it is increasingly concerning. 
 

The  couple of funny posts after I started this thread seem less funny now. 

[cyclonic happiness]

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

The scale of problem is clearly much greater.... this one is being underestimated by WHO I’m very confident.

 

The folk on that thread say that they are just sleeping due to lack of beds..... I pray to god that's true, otherwise it's going to be horrific, if not for us, for them

[Bristawl Si]

Watching This Morning earlier on ITV and a Prof was speaking about the outbreak. His take on it, as he'd been involved in some capacity with SARs 20 years ago, is that this outbreak is almost certainly linked to animals and the issue of them being in captivity in markets, etc.

More importantly he didnt seem that concerned about it, as it is linked with one area of China. So, global outbreak killing millions? Nope. 

Yes, it is a flu-like virus, and like influenza will kill those already weak from age, other health issues. Epidemic? No. Pandemic? No

His views. 

But it makes a good story for media to get their teeth into.

As an anecdote to anyone saying ( in later posts) that "i dont care" or my views are "dismissive" of flu, my 91 year old dad lost his life nearly 2 years to severe influenza, so i do 'get' the seriousness of flu outbreaks.

Edited January 24, 2020 by Bristle boy

[Snipper]

4 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

The folk on that thread say that they are just sleeping due to lack of beds..... I pray to god that's true, otherwise it's going to be horrific, if not for us, for them

Fact of life nowadays is misinformation rules. Goodness some people are sad. What is true and what is not so difficult to ascertain. 

[lottiekent]

It’s the Ro that interests me too. And the long incubation period - if it’s as long as the two weeks I read somewhere today (I’ll try and find the source) then it’s going to be spread further than predicted surely?

Also saw this regarding one prediction on the Ro:

“An analysis posted online on Friday by scientists from Lancaster University puts R0 for the new coronavirus at 3.8 and estimates that should the epidemic continue unabated, there could be 191,529 infections by 4 February.“

[Frost HoIIow]

Wouldn't be surprised if it's already been in the UK for a week or longer. Let's face it the authorities aren't always transparent with us. People that have it could have been misdiagnosed with flu or a different respiratory illness.

[Daniel*]

Beggars belief 

 

 

Edited January 24, 2020 by Daniel*

[Daniel*]

It’s here in europe

 

 

 

 

[Bristawl Si]

41 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

It’s the Ro that interests me too. And the long incubation period - if it’s as long as the two weeks I read somewhere today (I’ll try and find the source) then it’s going to be spread further than predicted surely?

Also saw this regarding one prediction on the Ro:

“An analysis posted online on Friday by scientists from Lancaster University puts R0 for the new coronavirus at 3.8 and estimates that should the epidemic continue unabated, there could be 191,529 infections by 4 February.“

Wuhan - population 11 million

China - population 1.4 billion

Therefore, % infected re to the above numbers in Wuhan is less than 2%.

[Gray-Wolf]

1 hour ago, Bristle boy said:

Wuhan - population 11 million

China - population 1.4 billion

Therefore, % infected re to the above numbers in Wuhan is less than 2%.

I think you might be mis-understanding the 'R0' number and how it is derived?

It is a measure of just how 'catchy' it is so a low R0 means it's not spreading, a high R0 and its catchy!

The latest vid I've seen out of china has a Haz mat clad women claiming to be from one of the Wuhan hospitals where R =14!!!

Should that be anywhere near the mark it's game over!

[Bristawl Si]

14 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I think you might be mis-understanding the 'R0' number and how it is derived?

It is a measure of just how 'catchy' it is so a low R0 means it's not spreading, a high R0 and its catchy!

The latest vid I've seen out of china has a Haz mat clad women claiming to be from one of the Wuhan hospitals where R =14!!!

Should that be anywhere near the mark it's game over!

Wuhan is the area where infection is rife. Contained and this will be minor. People in other countries found with the virus will be treated accordingly. The weak will probably die, just like with influenza. 

To say this will spread uncontrolled is scaremongering, but it makes great news.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

Wuhan is the area where infection is rife. Contained and this will be minor. People in other countries found with the virus will be treated accordingly. The weak will probably die, just like with influenza. 

To say this will spread uncontrolled is scaremongering, but it makes great news.

Well it certainly wasn't the 'weak' that were killed by Spanish Flu...it was those who were considered 'full of life'.

[Daniel*]

13 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Wuhan is the area where infection is rife. Contained and this will be minor. People in other countries found with the virus will be treated accordingly. The weak will probably die, just like with influenza. 

To say this will spread uncontrolled is scaremongering, but it makes great news.

It’s clearly not contained to ground zero, when 7 other countries have cases. America has confirmed its 3rd case, and all of infected are in entirely separate geographic locations. One woman from Chicago came back from Wuhan 10 days ago so she has possibly infected many, it is not entirely clear yet but as some have said word of two week incubation period. That would be extremely concerning if true, the number of cases would skyrocket very soon we will know much more in next 1-2 weeks. It needs to be taken seriously.

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes - we are in deep deep trouble with this one i fear, but as usual nothing will be done and people will still be allowed to travel freely to and from the UK willy nilly until some smart ass realises the damage but by then it will be too late - millions will have been killed.

[Bristawl Si]

54 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

It’s clearly not contained to ground zero, when 7 other countries have cases. America has confirmed its 3rd case, and all of infected are in entirely separate geographic locations. One woman from Chicago came back from Wuhan 10 days ago so she has possibly infected many, it is not entirely clear yet but as some have said word of two week incubation period. That would be extremely concerning if true, the number of cases would skyrocket very soon we will know much more in next 1-2 weeks. It needs to be taken seriously.

Yep, Wuhan is the source, so it is spreading because of global travel. The same happened with SARs and it turned out to be next to nowt.

This will be easily contained.

Granted, in today's "believe anything you see or read on the internet" peeps will think it is the next human disaster - it wont be.

[Frost HoIIow]

No panic stations from me yet. I think the government is right about the low risk given we haven't *officially* had any confirmed cases here. Obviously if we start to get a lot of them then it's right to up the risk level. The only concerning thing if that happens is how the heck can the NHS cope with people needing a bed? It's already stretched now as it is.

Edited January 24, 2020 by Frost HoIIow

[Daniel*]

44 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Yep, Wuhan is the source, so it is spreading because of global travel. The same happened with SARs and it turned out to be next to nowt.

This will be easily contained.

Granted, in today's "believe anything you see or read on the internet" peeps will think it is the next human disaster - it wont be.

OK, time will tell I suppose,

 

Edited January 24, 2020 by Daniel*

[Bristawl Si]

45 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

No panic stations from me yet. I think the government is right about the low risk given we haven't *officially* had any confirmed cases here. Obviously if we start to get a lot of them then it's right to up the risk level. The only concerning thing if that happens is how the heck can the NHS cope with people needing a bed? It's already stretched now as it is.

People wouldnt even be put in 'normal' NHS beds. They'd prob be put in isolation wards, which are always avail, but rarely used.

People need to get some perspective here. This is a flu-like virus which will kill the vunerable; very little difference to 'normal' flu. Otherwise healthy people will suffer, for sure, but will survive.

[Daniel*]

Give this a read. These scientists estimate only 5% of cases have been identified in Wuhan, furthermore they estimate the virus has a basic reproductive rate between 3.6 and 4.0 persons, it only needs to be above 1 to be sustaining. They expand 75% of transmission must be prevented for infections to stop increasing. Again this isn’t concrete but if true this would be a great concern and global pandemic would be inevitable. 

source: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1

Edited January 24, 2020 by Daniel*

[Bristawl Si]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Give this a read. These scientists estimate only 5% of cases have been identified in Wuhan, furthermore they estimate the virus has a basic reproductive rate between 3.6 and 4.0 persons, it only needs to be above 1 to be sustaining. They expand 75% of transmission must be prevented for infections to stop increasing. Again this isn’t concrete but if true this would be a great concern and global pandemic would be inevitable. 

Why would it be "global"? It is in Wuhan. It depends if Wuhan residents travel abroad in huge numbers. From what i've learnt today many Wuhan residents live there to work; public holidays, like now (Chinese NY) they go back to their villages/towns in rural China. 

Granted, some middle class will travel globally, and as in UK there are now 000s of Chinese in Uni towns. 

There will be no global pandemic. 

[Bristawl Si]

49 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

OK, time will tell I suppose,

 

Every year there are around 10 million influenza cases. Yes, every year, all over the world.

1000 cases of this disease is nowt. Even if it increases 100 fold it is nowt.

[Yarmy]

2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Why would it be "global"? It is in Wuhan. It depends if Wuhan residents travel abroad in huge numbers. From what i've learnt today many Wuhan residents live there to work; public holidays, like now (Chinese NY) they go back to their villages/towns in rural China. 

Granted, some middle class will travel globally, and as in UK there are now 000s of Chinese in Uni towns. 

There will be no global pandemic. 

That’s a bold statement, but I hope it’s true. The lack of widespread travel didn’t stop the spread of the plague or the Spanish flu epidemic in the early 20th century. We are better prepared and equipped in these times, but there’s no room for complacency. 

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]