Novel Coronavirus – China

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Not that it wasn’t ever concerning, but with all these outbreaks occurring, it is certainly a worrying time at the moment. 

With more preparation at the beginning, some of this could have been prevented. I think keeping clean and having good hygiene, while being aware of your contact with other people, should still hopefully help and reduce chances of any of us getting the virus. But am quite surprised at the speed it’s been spreading. 

It won’t change anything, but how we’d love for this virus to just clear off!

Agree with everything you say apart from i am not surprised at how quickly it is spreading, given how contagious it is.

[Summer Sun]

Apple have told its 12,000 staff at Cupertino HQ to work from home with immediate effect.

[Daniel*]

10 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

i don't get this whole numbers game..i bet the real number of those who are infected or have been infected is massively higher than being reported..if the vast majority of cases are only mild in nature then many wont report it or even know that they have had it... thinking they had a bad cold or bout of flu and just carried on?

Well WHO refuted the claim after a team of experts visited China with all the talk of a cover up.

[DAVID SNOW]

Its a bit like 28 days later in here, you have minute by minute figures being posted by the grim reaper combined with its "out of control" And hidden facts!

Get a grip.

[The PIT]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Well WHO refuted the claim after a team of experts visited China with all the talk of a cover up.

Mmmmm no doubt with some very aggressive police or army behind their backs.

[Derecho]

Pretty interesting article about our understanding of Coronavirus so far...

We’re learning a lot about the coronavirus. It will help us assess risk

WWW.STATNEWS.COM

---

In a matter of mere weeks, a number of features of the disease have come into focus, through extraordinarily rapid sharing of research.

 

[BlueHedgehog074]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Agree with everything you say apart from i am not surprised at how quickly it is spreading, given how contagious it is.

Indeed! I think I was just shocked as to the number of people getting it and at least hoping more could have been done to stop the virus’s spread. 

[The PIT]

6 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Its a bit like 28 days later in here, you have minute by minute figures being posted by the grim reaper combined with its "out of control" And hidden facts!

Get a grip.

You mean this chap I saw the arcade the other day

 

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Its a bit like 28 days later in here, you have minute by minute figures being posted by the grim reaper combined with its "out of control" And hidden facts!

Get a grip.

Nothing wrong sharing figures they are important in our understanding of spread, this thread is dedicated for that, you think it is under control in France, Italy etc? Time you screwed your head back on tbh! 
 

Data doesn’t require a commentary it speaks for itself...

[cheeky_monkey]

24 minutes ago, kold weather said:

According to the WHO who did a case study on Wuhan's version of this, suggested that there was no evidence of widespread under-reporting. Not to say there aren't some cases, but it doesn't appear to be a large chunk of people.

if you didnt know you had it you wont report it..to me its obvious the number of unreported cases will be much higher than those reported!

[Snowy L]

22 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

ALERTE - Le Ministre de la Santé annonce que désormais,  seuls les cas graves hospitalisés et les cas symptomatiques dans les centres médico-sociaux seront testés, au vu de la progression du #COVID19 sur le territoire.
 

ALERT - The Minister of Health announces that from now on, only severe hospitalized cases and symptomatic cases in medico-social centers will be tested, in view of the progression of #COVID19 on the territory.

 

 

Don't understand this. This will make their mortality rate look far worse than it actually is and panic will ensue. 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Snowy L said:

Don't understand this. This will make their mortality rate look far worse than it actually is and panic will ensue. 

Could be a good thing, if people take it seriously then hand washing and staying away from crowded areas might then reduce its spread.

[Spikecollie]

32 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Don’t give that excuse spike! South Korea have tested over 100,000 people, France “only” has 613 confirmed cases, you have the means too, they are concealing the truth just as it ramps up coincidence, I don’t think so. Likelihood it is many thousands if such measures are now being done. Out of control. 

the issue is this will be going largely undercover and unnoticed... france in some way has conceded defeat.

I see your point, Dan. Those folks from the religious gathering up north went everywhere afterwards. I think the government have kind of conceded that it is a losing game and when I was watching the TV with one of my clients this morning (sometimes that's what I do when they just want company!) they were talking about a "jeu perdu" (a lost game). We really, anywhere, can't test everyone and when people disperse unoticed it is almost impossible.

I'm just annoyed today because I couldn't make a normal, ordinary purchase of toilet roll 

Edited March 6, 2020 by Spikecollie

[emax]

22 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Well WHO refuted the claim after a team of experts visited China with all the talk of a cover up.

One minute people believe the WHO/Governments, the next they are covering it up or not acting fast enough etc. Which is it lol?

Aside from any figures or any data that is going to be unreliable for months to come, one thing that you could say for certain, no matter who you are, is that if asymptomatic or very mild cases exist (which we know they do) then the majority will not of been tested for COVID

[kold weather]

8 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

if you didnt know you had it you wont report it..to me its obvious the number of unreported cases will be much higher than those reported!

Once again though that is exactly against what WHO reported, and to be honest we don't know exactly how accurate that is but its the best data we have right at this moment, anything else is just pure guesswork.

Anyway it is interesting to see how its hitting some populations real hard, and others far lighter. For example South Korea and Italy aren't that dissimilar (SK is probably 3-5 days ahead in terms of cases) yet SK has had 42 deaths, Italy now upto 197 (and with a rather worryingly high amount of intensive care numbers considering the case numbers).

I think so far the UK government has straddled the line between complacency and panicking very well, and whilst there is a little bit of mixed messaging, overall I think its been quite well led by the experts (as opposed to the USA) and decisions seem to have been very well thought through. For example closing schools at this point seems to make little sense. Once we are getting 1000s cases a day, then maybe it would make more sense (and frnankly by that point, probably schools would be starting to struggle to staff the schools anyway.)

 

Edited March 6, 2020 by kold weather

[The PIT]

Apparently a 2nd death in the UK. An elderly man in Milton keys was admitted to a public ward with pneumonia. If hospitals are making such simple mistakes even now well one is speechless.

[Robbie Garrett]

The UK can't control this the way China did.  A few things spring to mind.

• 1) NHS couldn't build a hospital in 10 years, let alone 10 days.
• 2) Police forces are overstretched
• 3) The Government wouldn't want to be seen placing Army on the streets.
• 4) The DfT is highly unlikely to order the CAA to close down the UK FIR and thus prevent any flights entering the country, especially when the power of the likes of Willie Walsh with Spanish Airways, sorry I meant BA knocking on the door about shareholders etc etc

The only credible solution is to close the UK FIR, close all transport networks and businesses for 10-14 days.   Once things are under control, allow all UK airports to operate 24 hours for a set period, allow a relaxation on Sunday trading till end of the year.   Christmas Day basically, except airports are closed.

  

Just now, The PIT said:

Apparently a 2nd death in the UK. An elderly man in Milton keys was admitted to a public ward with pneumonia. If hospitals are making such simple mistakes even now well one is speechless.

A few hospitals have multiple patients, KCH London is one.  That's why I suspect they've removed naming locations....

 

Edited March 6, 2020 by Robbie Garrett

[emax]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Could be a good thing, if people take it seriously then hand washing and staying away from crowded areas might then reduce its spread.

Less than an hour ago you said hand washing is too late.....make ya mind up

[DAVID SNOW]

10 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Nothing wrong sharing figures they are important in our understanding of spread, this thread is dedicated for that, you think it is under control in France, Italy etc? Time you screwed your head back on tbh! 
 

Data doesn’t require a commentary it speaks for itself...

Understanding is great.

Agreed, don't see the need for a running commentary.

Some perspective wouldn't go amiss.......

[The PIT]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Once again though that is exactly against what WHO reported, and to be honest we don't know exactly how accurate that is but its the best data we have right at this moment.

Anyway it is interesting to see how its hitting some populations real hard, and others far lighter. For example South Korea and Italy aren't that dissimilar (SK is probably 3-5 days ahead in terms of cases) yet SK has had 42 deaths, Italy now upto 197 (and with a rather worryingly high amount of intensive care numbers considering the case numbers).

I think so far the UK government has straddled the line between complacency and panicking very well, and whilst there is a little bit of mixed messaging, overall I think its been quite well led by the experts (as opposed to the USA) and decisions seem to have been very well thought through. For example closing schools at this point seems to make little sense. Once we are getting 1000s cases a day, then maybe it would make more sense (and frnankly by that point, probably schools would be starting to struggle to staff the schools anyway.)

 

Remember Kold that our Boris said they would increase class sizes if this happened. Just so the virus could spread more easily. This isn't a good idea really.

[Spikecollie]

Interesting response from government I have just read here. Pharmacies have been authorised to produce their own alcohol hand gels - all must sell for a pre-determined price of 3€ per 100 ml no matter where they are sold.

I wonder how you make it - apparently vodka doesn't work according to a BBC article I read earlier today as it needs at least 60% alcohol. Anyone got a recipe? I've made soap...

Edited March 6, 2020 by Spikecollie

[Snowy L]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Once again though that is exactly against what WHO reported, and to be honest we don't know exactly how accurate that is but its the best data we have right at this moment.

Anyway it is interesting to see how its hitting some populations real hard, and others far lighter. For example South Korea and Italy aren't that dissimilar (SK is probably 3-5 days ahead in terms of cases) yet SK has had 42 deaths, Italy now upto 197 (and with a rather worryingly high amount of intensive care numbers considering the case numbers).

I think so far the UK government has straddled the line between complacency and panicking very well, and whilst there is a little bit of mixed messaging, overall I think its been quite well led by the experts (as opposed to the USA) and decisions seem to have been very well thought through. For example closing schools at this point seems to make little sense. Once we are getting 1000s cases a day, then maybe it would make more sense (and frnankly by that point, probably schools would be starting to struggle to staff the schools anyway.)

 

I will trust the CMO and his data. I don't think it's a coincidence that the country that has tested the most people has almost exactly the mortality rate that is predicted by our CMO and his model. 

[emax]

2 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

The UK can't control this the way China did.  A few things spring to mind.

• 1) NHS couldn't build a hospital in 10 years, let alone 10 days.
• 2) Police forces are overstretched
• 3) The Government wouldn't want to be seen placing Army on the streets.
• 4) The DfT is highly unlikely to order the CAA to close down the UK FIR and thus prevent any flights entering the country, especially when the power of the likes of Willie Walsh with Spanish Airways, sorry I meant BA knocking on the door about shareholders etc etc

The only credible solution is to close the UK FIR, close all transport networks and businesses for 10-14 days.   Once things are under control, allow all UK airports to operate 24 hours for a set period, allow a relaxation on Sunday trading till end of the year.   Christmas Day basically, except airports are closed.

 

You mean nearly all western countries cant control this like China did, not just the UK. But on the flip side, this virus wasnt caused by those western countries, so its swings and roundabouts! 

[The PIT]

3 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

A few hospitals have multiple patients, KCH London is one.  That's why I suspect they've removed naming locations....

 

This was Milton Keynes hospital and he was on a cruise ship. A public ward isn't a good idea so now they've got to track all the people down that have visited plus check they own staff.

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, The PIT said:

Remember Kold that our Boris said they would increase class sizes if this happened. Just so the virus could spread more easily. This isn't a good idea really.

Then that would also increase the likelyhood of teachers getting infected and a nice little feedback loop starts.

I'd personally still take a wait and see stance for the moment, certainly a chance that the real ramp up of cases coincide closely with the easter holidays anyway and the govt just try to limp it through to that point and review it after then.