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Novel Coronavirus – China


Snipper

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

The bubble has probably burst nick it may take a few weeks for this to be truly realised, a case in Lewisham today SE London borough very close to home. It is circulating about in London silently no doubt.

It will spread like wildfire in London. Super densely populated area. Things like the tube will be a big carrier no doubt about it. 

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

 

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Posted
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
1 hour ago, Gael_Force said:

I'm sure I read some of the Italian cases were also post mortem ... another reason for seeming high CFR.

This also seems to be the case in Spain and the USA, where they’ve tested post mortem.
USA have reported that several deaths occurred last week in Washington state, before the outbreak had been identified and the first Spanish death appears to have happened on 13th February:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain-death/spain-confirms-countrys-first-death-from-coronavirus-health-official-idUSKBN20Q2TG

 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
27 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

It will spread like wildfire in London. Super densely populated area. Things like the tube will be a big carrier no doubt about it. 

I think there is little doubt about that I have to use Jubilee line almost daily absolutely saturated with people morning commute is thoroughly unpleasant, you’re face to face. Yesterday, at Canada Water it was around half 8 in morning I had to wait for 4 trains to come along, packed like sardines, with lines and lines of people, and they was coming at frequency of every 1-2 minutes. There is nothing I can do using public transport is a part of city life, I may succumb to virus, I’m not worried about myself what I’m worried about is giving it to my elderly nan and my mum with a very bad immune system. Might be in both of their interest for me to avoid much contract. 

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Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK
4 hours ago, hammerb32 said:

This seems significant to me, would mean that the virus was well established in Europe longer than assumed?

I found the following on Reddit; Researchers at the Imperial College London found that, in Wuhan alone, there were 18 undetected cases for every 1 confirmed COVID-19 infection. This gave them an estimation that as of mid-Feb there were 1.5 million people infected with COVID-19 in Wuhan.

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

The bubble has probably burst nick it may take a few weeks for this to be truly realised, a case in Lewisham today SE London borough very close to home. It is circulating about in London silently no doubt.

 

18 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

It will spread like wildfire in London. Super densely populated area. Things like the tube will be a big carrier no doubt about it. 

This makes me think.  I am positive that this has already done the rounds in London. 

WWW.ARTS.AC.UK

Standard term dates for UAL. Specific dates may vary for some courses.

A lot of the students that live near me are from China.  A lot of them go to UAL and Monday 6 January 2020 onward a lot of them would have returned from China, right after the virus had started.

I and three of my other colleagues had symptoms of the flu/virus. I go to the GP (Two weeks after the above date) and told that I have a virus. Should clear up.  Took two weeks to clear up.   

Point being, this has done the rounds already. People in London and that travel to London are NOT clean.  

 

Anyway, the following.   Source: Click Here

 

  • This virus is not SARS, it’s not MERS, and it’s not influenza. It is a unique virus with unique characteristics.
  • Both COVID-19 and influenza cause respiratory disease and spread the same way, via small droplets of fluid from the nose and mouth of someone who is sick.
  • However, there are some important differences between COVID-19 and influenza.
  • First, COVID-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza, from the data we have so far.
  • With influenza, people who are infected but not yet sick are major drivers of transmission, which does not appear to be the case for COVID-19.
  • Evidence from China is that only 1% of reported cases do not have symptoms, and most of those cases develop symptoms within 2 days.
  • Some countries are looking for cases of COVID-19 using surveillance systems for influenza and other respiratory diseases.
  • Countries such as China, Ghana, Singapore and elsewhere have found very few cases of COVID-19 among such samples – or no cases at all.
Quote

To summarize, COVID-19 spreads less efficiently than flu, transmission does not appear to be driven by people who are not sick, it causes more severe illness than flu, there are not yet any vaccines or therapeutics, and it can be contained – which is why we must do everything we can to contain it. That’s why WHO recommends a comprehensive approach.

 

Quote

It will spread like wildfire in London. Super densely populated area. Things like the tube will be a big carrier no doubt about it. 

Which begs the question?  How do we know it already hasn't?  Considering the above.

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
7 hours ago, nick sussex said:

The WHO is asking countries to test a sample of its population for antibodies so that they can ascertain more accurately how many people have been infected .

So the public will have to be willing to engage in that and come forward .

WHO have said the current fatality rate is 3.4% ! 

Now of course that includes the vast majority of cases which were in China but the Italian rate is close to that so this is very troubling news .

I'd happily be tested for antibodies, then I'll know one way or the other if I did have this in late September, and they'll get a better picture if I did. 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
15 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I'd happily be tested for antibodies, then I'll know one way or the other if I did have this in late September, and they'll get a better picture if I did. 

Doubtful that you would have had it that early. 

I had a nasty dry cough virus just after Christmas which left me feeling like I couldn't breathe when I first got up- every time I inhaled it triggered more coughing and I couldn't catch my breath. It was making me feel sick I was dry coughing that much. Obviously it wasn't Coronavirus but it was pretty unpleasant.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Bewdley, Worcs; 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and sun in winter; warm and bright otherwise; not a big storm fan
  • Location: Bewdley, Worcs; 90m asl
1 hour ago, Robbie Garrett said:

I found the following on Reddit; Researchers at the Imperial College London found that, in Wuhan alone, there were 18 undetected cases for every 1 confirmed COVID-19 infection. This gave them an estimation that as of mid-Feb there were 1.5 million people infected with COVID-19 in Wuhan.

 

This makes me think.  I am positive that this has already done the rounds in London. 

spacer.png
WWW.ARTS.AC.UK

Standard term dates for UAL. Specific dates may vary for some courses.

A lot of the students that live near me are from China.  A lot of them go to UAL and Monday 6 January 2020 onward a lot of them would have returned from China, right after the virus had started.

I and three of my other colleagues had symptoms of the flu/virus. I go to the GP (Two weeks after the above date) and told that I have a virus. Should clear up.  Took two weeks to clear up.   

Point being, this has done the rounds already. People in London and that travel to London are NOT clean.  

 

Anyway, the following.   Source: Click Here

 

  • This virus is not SARS, it’s not MERS, and it’s not influenza. It is a unique virus with unique characteristics.
  • Both COVID-19 and influenza cause respiratory disease and spread the same way, via small droplets of fluid from the nose and mouth of someone who is sick.
  • However, there are some important differences between COVID-19 and influenza.
  • First, COVID-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza, from the data we have so far.
  • With influenza, people who are infected but not yet sick are major drivers of transmission, which does not appear to be the case for COVID-19.
  • Evidence from China is that only 1% of reported cases do not have symptoms, and most of those cases develop symptoms within 2 days.
  • Some countries are looking for cases of COVID-19 using surveillance systems for influenza and other respiratory diseases.
  • Countries such as China, Ghana, Singapore and elsewhere have found very few cases of COVID-19 among such samples – or no cases at all.

 

Which begs the question?  How do we know it already hasn't?  Considering the above.

At least some small crumbs of comfort in those WTO bullet points regarding the differences from flu. Admittedly they're more "It could have been even worse" than "This is actually good", but still. Less efficient transmission than flu is obviously good, as it will mean spread is slower than it might otherwise have been. Pre-sickness cases not being major transmitters means fewer people walking around feeling totally fine but spreading the virus everywhere, as happens with flu. And the very low rate of cases without symptoms, combined with (by now) high public awareness, means people are likely to notice the characteristic symptoms (cough more than fever) in public places.

As I've said already, this isn't to say that I think everything's going to be hunky-dory, not by any means. There remain some very scary features of COVID-19, not least its shockingly high rates of causing very serious illness or outright death. We currently have no early treatment, no herd immunity and no vaccine, and developing vaccines isn't exactly an overnight process -- I gather it's uncertain whether there'll be a vaccine any time this year. How much damage will have been done by the time one is developed? There's also the sheer uncertainty until much more research has been carried out, and even as a global priority that will take time.

Nevertheless, knowing your enemy is a crucial part of winning any battle. The more we discover about this thing, the more chance we have of getting through it.

Edited by Arctic Hare
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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham City Centre
  • Location: Birmingham City Centre
5 hours ago, swebby said:

Just seen the BBC rolling news. Wall to wall coverage of covid-19 obviously, would help if those presenting it had the first idea of what they are talking about.

Chief science correspondent (Fergus Walsh?) witters on about perspective saying the mortality rate is possibly 1% with 3000+ deaths. So far so good, but then compares this to TB saying that TB kills 40,000 people a day.  This might be worrying news to the WHO and TB alliance. as they have obviously missed 15 million additional deaths per year?

I saw the special Covid-19 programme they had on Monday night, and I was of the same impression as you. Could not believe the inaccuracies coming out of Mr Walsh's mouth, for someone who's supposed to be their top science bod. Utterly woeful. It's nothing new though- he's spent the last week or so comparing Covid-19 to seasonal flu, using similar flawed statistics.

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Posted
  • Location: Mid Essex
  • Location: Mid Essex
2 hours ago, Hirudine said:

I saw the special Covid-19 programme they had on Monday night, and I was of the same impression as you. Could not believe the inaccuracies coming out of Mr Walsh's mouth, for someone who's supposed to be their top science bod. Utterly woeful. It's nothing new though- he's spent the last week or so comparing Covid-19 to seasonal flu, using similar flawed statistics.

I don’t disagree that things could have been better but if you are trying to explain something to the sometimes thick public why not use the analogy of flu?  Ok it is not the same but similar.  The public are familiar with flu so could relate to it.
 

How would you describe quickly and clearly what Covid-19 was like without referring to flu or even a cold?

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
7 hours ago, Robbie Garrett said:

I found the following on Reddit; Researchers at the Imperial College London found that, in Wuhan alone, there were 18 undetected cases for every 1 confirmed COVID-19 infection. This gave them an estimation that as of mid-Feb there were 1.5 million people infected with COVID-19 in Wuhan.

 

This makes me think.  I am positive that this has already done the rounds in London. 

imageproxy.php?img=&key=8d7953939bb9d610
WWW.ARTS.AC.UK

Standard term dates for UAL. Specific dates may vary for some courses.

A lot of the students that live near me are from China.  A lot of them go to UAL and Monday 6 January 2020 onward a lot of them would have returned from China, right after the virus had started.

I and three of my other colleagues had symptoms of the flu/virus. I go to the GP (Two weeks after the above date) and told that I have a virus. Should clear up.  Took two weeks to clear up.   

Point being, this has done the rounds already. People in London and that travel to London are NOT clean.  

 

Anyway, the following.   Source: Click Here

 

  • This virus is not SARS, it’s not MERS, and it’s not influenza. It is a unique virus with unique characteristics.
  • Both COVID-19 and influenza cause respiratory disease and spread the same way, via small droplets of fluid from the nose and mouth of someone who is sick.
  • However, there are some important differences between COVID-19 and influenza.
  • First, COVID-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza, from the data we have so far.
  • With influenza, people who are infected but not yet sick are major drivers of transmission, which does not appear to be the case for COVID-19.
  • Evidence from China is that only 1% of reported cases do not have symptoms, and most of those cases develop symptoms within 2 days.
  • Some countries are looking for cases of COVID-19 using surveillance systems for influenza and other respiratory diseases.
  • Countries such as China, Ghana, Singapore and elsewhere have found very few cases of COVID-19 among such samples – or no cases at all.

 

Which begs the question?  How do we know it already hasn't?  Considering the above.

It is interesting.

I went to London on December 21st (Winter Wonderland - Hyde Park) and mingled with tourists from all over the world.

On December 23rd, i developed pain in my ribs on one side which kind of felt like I had been punched there or bruised. I thought it was very strange. 

Within 3-4 hours, my whole body felt like that. My bones hurt. My headache was absolutely crushing and I quickly developed the most nasty dry racking cough I've ever had. Nose was fine, throat was fine, just the cough.

Christmas eve I woke up absolutely soaked to the bone with sweat after a fitful night of fever dreams. I, a grown man, was lifelessly slumped on the couch nearly in tears and unable to move because of the pain. It was 6am - my partner told me she would pick up some paracetamol and ibuprofen on her way home from her night shift at 8am. Those 2 hours felt like an absolute lifetime. Every time I coughed I would double over in an uncontrollable racking fit which sounded awful - so much so, my partner who is a nurse began to genuinely be concerned.

Christmas day I struggled to catch my breath all day and this is when I debated with myself about going to hospital as I started to get a little bit anxious. My breathing was very shallow and I felt light-headed and just all round terrible - cough was completely unproductive and just so dry. My eyes hurt every time I moved them. I had no appetite whatsoever which for me is very unusual - even during the worst head colds I can smash down a curry.

Boxing Day I woke up and could breathe properly again which was a massive relief and I was able to go to the shop and leave the house. Body aches had subsided a bit and I felt a little steadier on my feet.

I started to feel better and actually recovered fairly quickly - quicker than most head colds I get anyway - the painful eyes being the last thing to go.

 

I haven't dramatised any of that account - it genuinely was horrible and the speed with which it struck me down was frightening.

Now, I'm pretty sure it was the genuine flu and not coronavirus, but who knows how long this thing has actually been silently circulating in our cities? The news of the virus broke not long after and we joked about what I had being coronavirus.

 

I would love to get tested out of curiosity to see if I had it or not via the presence of antibodies.

 

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Guest Delete Me

New York is going to see more cases, there are a few videos showing people collapsed in the street ala Wuhan, Iran.

With such a populous city like New York there's only one way this can go unfortunately.

Just breaking that 2 more cases confirmed in bonny Scotland

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
8 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:

New York is going to see more cases, there are a few videos showing people collapsed in the street ala Wuhan, Iran.

With such a populous city like New York there's only one way this can go unfortunately.

Just breaking that 2 more cases confirmed in bonny Scotland

People don’t collapse in the streets because of Coronavirus

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
24 minutes ago, Azazel said:

I haven't dramatised any of that account - it genuinely was horrible and the speed with which it struck me down was frightening.

Now, I'm pretty sure it was the genuine flu and not coronavirus, but who knows how long this thing has actually been silently circulating in our cities? The news of the virus broke not long after and we joked about what I had being coronavirus.

 

I would love to get tested out of curiosity to see if I had it or not via the presence of antibodies.

 

Doesn't sound like flu to me, i have had the flu a lot of times and never had that rib pain, the pain from the fever with flu is all over not that specific to one area but if there is any weak spot where it is worse it is on your back near your kidney's on left and right side. 

The breathing part does sound like coronavirus.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Doesn't sound like flu to me, i have had the flu a lot of times and never had that rib pain, the pain from the fever with flu is all over not that specific to one area but if there is any weak spot where it is worse it is on your back near your kidney's on left and right side. 

The breathing part does sound like coronavirus.

Theres that niggling 5 percent of me that thinks it could have been - the symptoms match up so well. Like you say, the breathing part isn't a common flu symptom - it's usually a complication (developing pneumonia for example) and thankfully that didn't happen. 

Honestly, it was so so quick. Painful ribs to full blown bedridden racking cough within hours.

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2 minutes ago, Beanz said:

People don’t collapse in the streets because of Coronavirus

Collapsing because of the effects of the virus is medically atypical but not ruled out. Severe respiratory illness caused by the virus has been shown in China and now Iran to make in some cases, people collapse and whilst not unconscious or dead their lungs are in quite a bad way.

I completely understand your point though Beanz, not all cases of people collapsing are to do with the virus but it is happening.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

Someone in hubs company in London, has been tested positive. They had just come back from Japan. Hubs has a training meeting in a couple of weeks and suffers from breathing issues at times. 

People will do what they want. I say it was stupidity to travel, others will say it is freedom of choice. Probably even went into work thinking it was a heavy cold.

You can have films telling people to wash their hands, how to put a tissue in a bin, - but just like the people here who wear flipflops driving and will think they will never be to blame for an accident, how many will go on their merry little way thinking 'on it won't happen to me' or 'it's just a cold' 

According to the symptoms, you can be infected but mildly.  I carried swine flu to hubs we think when I was pregnant, how many could just be carriers? 

How I see it, all this 'worry' about climate change and the death of humanity, when it could be just a virus that could wipe us out far quicker. 

Edited by Dami
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Posted
  • Location: Mid Essex
  • Location: Mid Essex
44 minutes ago, Azazel said:

 

I would love to get tested out of curiosity to see if I had it or not via the presence of antibodies.

 

Have you tried to be tested?  Difficult for medical profession to decide whether cases such are yours are actually worth investigating as so many claim to have flu when all they have is a heavy cold. I emphasise I am not suggesting you are saying anything other than the truth.

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
4 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Have you tried to be tested?  Difficult for medical profession to decide whether cases such are yours are actually worth investigating as so many claim to have flu when all they have is a heavy cold. I emphasise I am not suggesting you are saying anything other than the truth.

No I haven't - it's more curiosity than anything. I don't want to take away medical resources from those in need. Definitely wasn't a cold though, I would put my mortgage on it - it was nothing like a cold in-fact.

If they do want people to test though I would be more than happy.  

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37 minutes ago, Beanz said:

People don’t collapse in the streets because of Coronavirus

Completely wrong.

Coronavirus can cause a Cytokine Storm within the body. You're not doing star jumps after that. 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30305-6/fulltext

Quote

In most moribund patients, 2019-nCoV infection is also associated with a cytokine storm

Coronavirus also crosses the blood/brain barrier preventing you from breathing.

ONLINELIBRARY.WILEY.COM

 
Quote

Increasing evidence shows that coronavriruses are not always confined to the respiratory tract and that they may also invade the central nervous system inducing neurological diseases.

Quote

In light of the high similarity between SARS‐CoV and SARS‐CoV2, it is quite likely that the potential invasion of SARS‐CoV2 is partially responsible for the acute respiratory failure of COVID‐19 patients.

 

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