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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
    3 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

    Is that a potential easterly or am I reading the charts wrong ??

    There’s too much energy spilling into the Greenland tip with the high probably sinking SE.

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    29 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

    There’s too much energy spilling into the Greenland tip with the high probably sinking SE.

    ?graphe_ens3.thumb.gif.eb7560d1aaeb0087d574992ddb9bca99.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
    2 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

    Thank you for your kind words ECMWF ?

    Weather banter. 

    Can it get any more geeky ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

    Surely some further upgrades needed to the GFS (FV3) as we continue to see it's cold bias and will be interesting to see when the ensembles are upgraded to the FV3 if we get the same problem.

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
    24 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

    GFS 12z op is a massive cold outlier from the 6th Feb. All bets are off ?

    Expect the Ecm to bring back a dose of reality.

    To be honest there's more than one model toying with colder ideas.

    This morning ECM and GFS looked great and the gefs looks like a cold snap and a almost situation nowhere near done deal.

    lots going on in the stratosphere and there's some cold on offer.

    Lubbly jubbly.

    GFS had the Atlantic and us in the freezer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
    4 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

    Weather banter. 

    Can it get any more geeky ?

    It could, but may get into big trouble from the other moderators for taking this topic off its tracks ?

    Feel like anything could probably happen with the ECMWF tonight, bar the real possibility of some kind of Atlantic ridging. Just the question I guess whether it will be amplified, or whether something flatter occurs. ?‍♂️

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    Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
    14 minutes ago, snowray said:

    ?graphe_ens3.thumb.gif.eb7560d1aaeb0087d574992ddb9bca99.gif

    a clear outlier might as well just bin it.just hope the GEM is the same

     

    gem-0-210.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

    The big relief this evening is the improved UKMO output .

    That model is really one you can’t afford to not have onside . If that showed what the ICON did I’d be hitting the brandy .

    Don’t you live in the south of France Nick ? Still lovely you care about us so much mind ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Okey dokey, GFS, UKMO and ECM at 144 (in that order).

    image.thumb.png.ee1157ca3112c8387a67e7bdfdb05534.pngimage.thumb.png.b47d3c35d8a42ea133e520fb467f890f.pngimage.thumb.png.7ba8949c833ce93a15d593be2cd43aa3.png

    Good consistency from the 'big 3' at this point.  ECM maybe slight sharper up towards Greenland.

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    ecm pushing the boundaries. .

    yet with ample room for mauvuire. .

    and waving access. .

     

    g'wan! !!

    ECM1-144.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    elongate. ..to '-really -create! !.

    those by -words are worthy. ..

    ?

    ECH1-144.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Thank god!!!

    ecm at 168.

    ECH1-168.thumb.gif.e452b07c01477038994f3e2d3e0d7e9c.gifECH0-168.gif

    lets hope it counts down to this^

     

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    UKMO at t144 on board, GFS brings cold thrust a tad earlier compared to previous runs, ECMon board.....but!  It’s t168 onwards.  I got my ass bitten re December when favouring the cold outlook compared to my much less cold alternative.  Jan has turned out mild as was my favoured thoughts but  now I’ve committed to a mild Feb with HP in the wrong place.....weather gods please bite my ass again!!!! ?

     

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
    5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Thank god!!!

    ecm at 168.

    ECH1-168.thumb.gif.e452b07c01477038994f3e2d3e0d7e9c.gif

    lets hope it counts down to this^

    Looks better than the GFS with less energy escaping East round the Greenland tip ?

    It could be all systems go in the Ecm ?

    Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    All Aboard ...

    69ED90C3-14FE-4B8E-9982-5117EE62CDCA.gif

    17F0AE21-F925-478E-A318-16D1DA2FBAD6.gif
     

    Well it’s better than nothing .

    Edited by Mark wheeler
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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    miss-shapped  troughs. ..and miss modeled hp2 cells. .

    are by way of evolution. ..a trigger for UK cold! !..

     

    I'm on this now BIG TIME. ...

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