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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

12z Northerly alert!! The ens are throwing them out like crazy this evening... You just watch our winter come all at once... At least we are finally seeing some eye candy.. 

Posted Images

12 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

WOW

the gem is not a gem and sends a BBQ southerly

gemnh-0-240.thumb.png.780b00df0ddc2e674024114f7bfbed26.png

it's either....

download.jpg.8592fffef4307b3d4633d738af1a8469.jpg or 1158853307_download(1).jpg.989f8a9133771c6de9bf9ce3659fe364.jpg

 

cmc not to be ignored. .

verifies  well. .

BUT PLAYS- CATCH  UP. ..?

 

 

go for the ski part! !

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1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

cmc not to be ignored. .

verifies  well. .

BUT PLAYS- CATCH  UP. ..?

 

 

go for the ski part! !

Trouble is it’s so far into fi, the smallest of changes early on and it’s balls up unfortunately, it would be sooo nice if just for once this winter it all falls right for the uk and then all this crap we have endured for the last couple of months will be forgotten about.

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What a time to get home form the farm! A stonkering, stonking stonker of a GFS 12Z Operational. And, just for the sake completeness, I'll post my favourite charts:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Lots of frontal snow potential, and some  (future)heat potential away doon sooth!:yahoo::clapping::clap:

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7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Good to see you back NWS, and that's a big improvement from Exeter! There's plenty to get excited about from the 12z ensembles, and within the next 10 day's... I'm gerrin a tad excited... There's a slight stutter appearing in me typing hand... ?

gens-5-0-264.png

gens-5-1-252.png

gens-6-0-216.png

gens-8-0-204.png

gens-9-0-192.png

gens-9-1-192.png

gens-11-0-216.png

gens-11-1-192.png

gens-15-1-240.png

Fjc54zM_d.jpg

Is that a potential easterly or am I reading the charts wrong ??

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29 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

There’s too much energy spilling into the Greenland tip with the high probably sinking SE.

?graphe_ens3.thumb.gif.eb7560d1aaeb0087d574992ddb9bca99.gif

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2 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Thank you for your kind words ECMWF ?

Weather banter. 

Can it get any more geeky ?

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Surely some further upgrades needed to the GFS (FV3) as we continue to see it's cold bias and will be interesting to see when the ensembles are upgraded to the FV3 if we get the same problem.

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24 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

GFS 12z op is a massive cold outlier from the 6th Feb. All bets are off ?

Expect the Ecm to bring back a dose of reality.

To be honest there's more than one model toying with colder ideas.

This morning ECM and GFS looked great and the gefs looks like a cold snap and a almost situation nowhere near done deal.

lots going on in the stratosphere and there's some cold on offer.

Lubbly jubbly.

GFS had the Atlantic and us in the freezer.

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4 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Weather banter. 

Can it get any more geeky ?

It could, but may get into big trouble from the other moderators for taking this topic off its tracks ?

Feel like anything could probably happen with the ECMWF tonight, bar the real possibility of some kind of Atlantic ridging. Just the question I guess whether it will be amplified, or whether something flatter occurs. ?‍♂️

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14 minutes ago, snowray said:

?graphe_ens3.thumb.gif.eb7560d1aaeb0087d574992ddb9bca99.gif

a clear outlier might as well just bin it.just hope the GEM is the same

 

gem-0-210.png

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1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

The big relief this evening is the improved UKMO output .

That model is really one you can’t afford to not have onside . If that showed what the ICON did I’d be hitting the brandy .

Don’t you live in the south of France Nick ? Still lovely you care about us so much mind ?

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Okey dokey, GFS, UKMO and ECM at 144 (in that order).

image.thumb.png.ee1157ca3112c8387a67e7bdfdb05534.pngimage.thumb.png.b47d3c35d8a42ea133e520fb467f890f.pngimage.thumb.png.7ba8949c833ce93a15d593be2cd43aa3.png

Good consistency from the 'big 3' at this point.  ECM maybe slight sharper up towards Greenland.

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