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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it w

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Most wintry weather of the winter so far in 9/10 days time?

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Snow charts not showing anything around the same time apart from Scotland - but these are rubbish anyway. Anything ppn wise is likely to be wintry with that sort of set up.

Edited by mb018538
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If the northerly does land and the ridge is sufficiently north with the coldest air over the UK then it won’t end up a typical northerly topper because the upstream flow after the initial ridge is likely to send the jet ne not east .

As you can see from the GFS 06 hrs run the ridge topples but doesn’t really sink south and then you pull in a ne flow .

Low heights then develop to the south supporting the high .

So there’s a lot riding on this for coldies. 

 

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Looks good in FI, can it hold on though... Keeps pushing back everytime though which has been the problem all winter.

Worth watching as always.

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A little bit of Jan 87 about the proposed evolution from the Ops

 

Last pic is current set up?

 

 

Screenshot_20200128_122740_com.android.chrome.jpg

 

 

Screenshot_20200128_122955_com.android.chrome.jpg

 

Screenshot_20200128_123151_com.android.chrome.jpg

Edited by winterof79
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49 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Thanks.

That's last night's 12z though. It hasn't updated for this morning's 0z yet.

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image.thumb.png.ec40ae15e251cae22a726fc505548857.png

Almost a 50/50 split from around the 5th February now between the op and colder solutions to something much milder. Position of the high all important going forward. I said last night it'd take another couple of days to sort out, that probably still holds true for a situation like this. Doesn't look like anything sustained though, so potentially a couple/three cold days before it gets moved along.

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Afternoon all ?

Well, the GFS 06Z OP piqued interest yesterday and has done so again today.

I'm still dubious of us finding a way out of the mild rut before the middle of February at the very earliest and I think late Feb - early March remains our best shot at something cold.

Clearly, it's about HP positioning and orientation - do we get a small LP over Iberia for example which serves to keep the HP to the north or do we get a toppler as the northern arm of the jet proves too strong? The key to an evolution to something different would be to slow the Atlantic and get some amplification and that's going to be helped by a weakened or re-aligned TPV. 

IF the projected warmings can achieve the necessary de-stabilisation then we have a chance of something more than a mid-latitude HP just to the south or south-west of the British Isles and get that vital northward move to start advecting some colder air over us.

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5 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Worth pointing out that Icon ? has shown no interest in amplification now for the second run on the bounce ?

Hopefully it’s not a trend setter. 

Was about to mention this as well knowing are luck the ICON has it spot on!

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Hi gang ,realy hoping tonights ECM Run continues the prospects of a cold shot next week .we have Met office now on board as well ,but at 7 days range details will change , the trouble being where will the High pressure take up residence, and will there be an escape of bottled up cold from the Arctic to benefit the uk for us coldies .certainly our best shot this winter , STELLAS ALL ROUND, cheers gang .

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4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Much better ukmo 1444 than the midnight run,shows that this model can be poor sometimes too

 

 

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That's well in fl?

but yes a good UKMO

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@tight isobar

looking v good at 174 but i hold caution thanks to the ICON.

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Edited by Allseasons-si
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Don’t like this run now,the coldest air over the North Sea,and not the U.K.

So hard to get proper cold over the u.k.,this run won’t be doing it.

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Just now, SLEETY said:

Don’t like this run now,the coldest air over the North Sea,and not the U.K.

So hard to get proper cold over the u.k.,this run won’t be doing it.

Yep, big difference 7 days out and only the Eastern half of the country  gets a 2 day glancing blow. Westward correction desperately needed on pub run.

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Just now, seabreeze86 said:

The GFS is not a million miles away from a easterly setting up here 

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You beat me to it I was busy drawing!?☃️

20200128_162917.jpg

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Could be a snorter this - all down to what that shortwave to or WNW does, looks very strange and looks ominous but the fact that it is being ejected and a ridge is building behind it and that cold pool to the East isn't retreating its holding firm, i suggest bullseye by the end of the run.

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Funny this forum.... 

What's wrong with this? 

The door is opening to a 87 type scenario

 

Screenshot_20200128_162958_com.android.chrome.jpg

Edited by winterof79
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6 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Don’t like this run now,the coldest air over the North Sea,and not the U.K.

So hard to get proper cold over the u.k.,this run won’t be doing it.

All academic at that range...but trough disrupting west of the UK isn't a bad thing and could lead to an easterly.

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