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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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Morning all, a bit of a disappointment from the UKMO run this morning. Very mild uppers covering much of Europe at 144t. Looking at the flow charts from this run still shows development of a wave to develop at the base of the Atlantic trough North of the Azores in its latter stages but certainly different orientation of the driving force that is the North Atlantic low compared to the other main models.  Of course this run may be wrong or just possibly delaying any southward movement of the polar front which would allow a cold high to build to the NW . The strength of any high on this run still appears to the south.  Maybe, the UKMO extended will offer a clue but presently looks like UK Met Office not having much interest in a colder spell to develop. Our team here much in the GFS camp this morning.

C

UW144-7.gif

Edited by carinthian

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Ukmo is absolutely horrendous!!just waiting for the inevitable flattening out to occur later on this evening or in a couple of days!!just aint falling for this rubbish anymore this winter!!!sorry aint being negative but its just the way it is dudes!!ec46 and seasonals have been bang on!!sometimes i wonder is it better to stick to those than the models themselves!!bring that notherly to around 96 hours then we talking!!!

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1 hour ago, That ECM said:

T168 is an improvement. 👍 I prefer ukmo at t144 tho.

AF29DC4C-FB0A-4D09-92DC-0FEBE1EDAC21.png

Two other posters are saying the ukmo is rubbish. 

Confusing.

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7 minutes ago, shaky said:

Ukmo is absolutely horrendous!!just waiting for the inevitable flattening out to occur later on this evening or in a couple of days!!just aint falling for this rubbish anymore this winter!!!sorry aint being negative but its just the way it is dudes!!ec46 and seasonals have been bang on!!sometimes i wonder is it better to stick to those than the models themselves!!bring that notherly to around 96 hours then we talking!!!

Anything outside of 72 hrs is FI especially if there’s disagreement between models! No point getting excited just yet as things can get watered down as they have been all winter.

A real dose of reality needed here!

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GFS having a bit of fun with FI this morning, enjoy watching the 204hr+ eye candy, I can’t see it being there tomorrow! 
 

ECM looking the sensible solution at the moment, UKMO is not ‘horrendous’ in fact at times like this my money is normally on UKMO to be the form horse.  

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It’s a great 3 day Northerly on the GFS with snow for some ...However it’s a shame that we are back to square one shortly after. Ensembles also agree on a quick warm up ...

2F7646F8-881F-457C-92B4-DA6C08D5A76A.png

34345147-31DE-411C-AED5-7370BAF644BF.png

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13 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Two other posters are saying the ukmo is rubbish. 

Confusing.

One talking about their location and the other entitled to his opinion which is that he sees it flattening out. I don’t. All part of the discussion and all entitled to our opinion. 😄👍

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32 minutes ago, shaky said:

Ukmo is absolutely horrendous!!just waiting for the inevitable flattening out to occur later on this evening or in a couple of days!!just aint falling for this rubbish anymore this winter!!!sorry aint being negative but its just the way it is dudes!!ec46 and seasonals have been bang on!!sometimes i wonder is it better to stick to those than the models themselves!!bring that notherly to around 96 hours then we talking!!!

Yes and the significant thing is that the METO are going for the Atlantic taking back to control so even if a mid lat High comes again, a sinker looks very likely and that's more time wasted.

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5 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

Yes and the significant thing is that the METO are going for the Atlantic taking back to control so even if a mid lat High comes again, a sinker looks very likely and that's more time wasted.

I think there’ll be further attempts at N’lies with a more potent and longer lasting appearing next time round. Next weeks one does look like a brief affair sadly.

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More time needed for the charts to get a better angle on placement of high pressure,still a very good

chance of a very cold northerlies over the U.K. Should know in a few days.

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1 hour ago, That ECM said:

One talking about their location and the other entitled to his opinion which is that he sees it flattening out. I don’t. All part of the discussion and all entitled to our opinion. 😄👍

It is rubbish up to 144 hours!!i dunno how any poster on here can take any positive from the 00z ukmo!!it  is what it is!!maybe an improvement on the 12z later?

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The GFS 06z continuing to show reasonable amplification of the High out West in the Atlantic early to mid next week.

92C8C7C5-DA64-4C9C-BF8C-2EBBBB187BDE.thumb.png.fc61c554e2d1cf8b72a488d8064e8eec.png66C89823-D1A1-4206-A88F-D8037A456377.thumb.png.c96aad225ec942beef37ca111c2e7edf.png9E82CFB9-069F-4FD1-BA74-0DFFB3A862D3.thumb.png.7071bfb4114cb62d4f224d31efe0bed1.png

-10*C 850 hPa temperatures pouring into Scotland again and should be cold enough for some sleet and snow showers to low levels in places. 

Fingers crosses for the cold weather enthusiasts that the GFS will end up being close to the mark with this setup.

Even in the present time, today should continue to deliver some wintry weather to places.

Edited by DiagonalRedLine

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11 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-0-252.png?6

Not a Classic Toppler 
gfseu-5-258.png?6

 

No its not, but it does look like the high is going to sink and merge with the main high again which wouldn't be fantastic at all.. Saying that it might, after a few frames afterward, rebuild northwards, going on to show another northerly of sorts?! 

Edited by Snowfish2

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gfs ....keen as mustard. ..and is yet another  good/great run. .

dog with a bone. ...sums things up. ..and again opens  up many variations  on the theme! !!!!

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8 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

No its not but it does look like the high is going to merge with the main high agin which wouldn't be fantastic at all.. Saying that it might build northwards a few!!frames on if we are very lucky!! 

After that, look at the insane cold coming of f the Atlantic at t276 (deep FI).
 

image.thumb.png.1273c6e15c752e399289e0b7f9e971d5.png

 

 From t168 onwards...its cold and getting colder, even when depth of cold dissipates as it’s HP surface cold will be well in place.....for this winter 06z is a peach....will HP build in right place and not my forecast wrong place.....it won’t take much for it to be either bitterly cold or drab.  Anyone got the UKMO t168?

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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6 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

After that, look at the insane cold coming of f the Atlantic.  From t168 onwards...its cold and getting colder, even when depth of cold dissipates as it’s HP surface cold will be well in place.....for this winter 06z is a peach....will HP build in right place and not my forecast wrong place.....it won’t take much for it to be either bitterly cold or drab.  Anyone got the UKMO t168?

 

BFTP

Tagged Gavin for you - @Summer Sun he will have it - Gav - can you post up the UKMO 168 please?

 

I think it might be a sinker though the UKMO.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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17 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

After that, look at the insane cold coming of f the Atlantic.  From t168 onwards...its cold and getting colder, even when depth of cold dissipates as it’s HP surface cold will be well in place.....for this winter 06z is a peach....will HP build in right place and not my forecast wrong place.....it won’t take much for it to be either bitterly cold or drab.  Anyone got the UKMO t168?

 

BFTP

 

18 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

gfs ....keen as mustard. ..and is yet another  good/great run. .

dog with a bone. ...sums things up. ..and again opens  up many variations  on the theme! !!!!

It is a great run, better than the 0z for pure surface cold. Do not want to put the mockers on it and just fingers crossed that the op is seeing the right direction of travel as the GEFS have still away to go (0z):

anim_edu6.gif

However, with such a setup the op would generally lead the way. If we get that northerly and quasi-topple, post that looks very complicated and the 06z is one option. Getting that initial Atlantic ridge is the first target and we are 2-3 days away from verification of that...

Edited by IDO

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1 minute ago, IDO said:

 

It is a great run, better than the 0z for pure surface cold. Do not want to put the mockers on it and just fingers crossed that the op is seeing the right direction of travel as the GEFS have still away to go (0z):

anim_rjr3.gif

However, with such a setup the op would generally lead the way. If we get that northerly and quasi-topple, post that looks very complicated and the 06z is one option. Getting that initial Atlantic ridge is the first target and we are 2-3 days away from verification of that...

yeah agree it's all based around  initial  high  placing  in the Atlantic. .

and both surge  and escape. ..

however  a very different  outlook  looks a very good bet now. ..and the options  for cold are beginning to question up! !

 

so some exiting  watching  for sure...and at the very least. ...1 would  suspect  at least fleeting shots of artcic  incursions. ..although  I'm opting for much more than that. ..and highly  suspect  that the cards  are falling  into place  now. ....at last! !!

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And the award for the coldest westerly flow ever goes to ..... 🥇 

847D31A1-30FC-4A81-B232-295FF84C8477.png

E4B344ED-5B61-4355-B69F-547DE42C9835.png

Edited by Tim Bland

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42 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Tagged Gavin for you - @Summer Sun he will have it - Gav - can you post up the UKMO 168 please?

 

I think it might be a sinker though the UKMO.

Here you go

ukm2.2020020312_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.7a48d8ae741c7e562f84b2e9dcf20757.png

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