Jump to content

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Nope - W'ly

So, I was correct to say not north or east!  I was hoping you were going to say north easterly, but this ain't a dream lol!

Edited by Don
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

12z Northerly alert!! The ens are throwing them out like crazy this evening... You just watch our winter come all at once... At least we are finally seeing some eye candy.. 

Posted Images

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The EC46 should be put out of its misery ! 

I expect the wind direction is the same crud it’s dished out all winter ! 

But we've had crud all winter.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

This evolution is safer than the earlier GFS12 hrs run .

More margin for error so less chance of phasing with the upstream troughing between day 7 and 8 .

We need the ridge to build cleanly northwards which happens here . As for past day ten , not worth worrying about .

The main thing is to overcome the earlier hurdles !

Well like you say the gfs 18z runs the hurdles no problem leaving it's counterparts(ens)behind,well i hope so?

giphy.thumb.gif.ddf540635de39dad087d0eaf7ded45fe.gif

the ens i hope will catch up nearer the timeline

back to the 18z gfs and a reload looks on the cards and whilst we have that hp cell dumbelling around to our west there is every possibility of a reload.

gfsnh-0-312.thumb.png.ba08e564d747f94b4eaa3a4174ad1765.png

Edited by Allseasons-si
  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The EC46 should be put out of its misery ! 

I expect the wind direction is the same crud it’s dished out all winter ! 

Not been wrong yet ...........

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not been wrong yet ...........

Last year....totally wrong.  Some have short memories.

This year a stopped watch could have forecasted winter, with the benefit of hindsight.  

Anyway, I think a big finish for the pub run in the strat...T342

image.thumb.jpg.8e54a722e1f310b79ca3bf87641fd6b8.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

another  set perhaps  smelling  the coffee. .

and arguably  supporting  ..

18z  London  ones. 

MT8_London_ens (2).png

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites

It's ensemble time... I nearly spat out me ovaltine... Surely things are beginning to look up now, there's quite a lot of background noise a devoloping.. Regarding the EC46, I will say this.... If a major split of the vortex takes place, and it falls favourably for us.... I still think the EC46 will be showing the same old Wstly routine in its outlook... ? Embrace the moment folks... Things are looking up.. 

gens-0-0-216.png

gens-0-1-204.png

gens-4-0-240.png

gens-4-0-336.png

gens-5-1-324.png

gens-7-0-336.png

gens-11-0-228.png

gens-11-1-204.png

gens-12-0-240.png

gens-12-0-312.png

gens-12-1-288.png

gens-14-0-228.png

  • Like 8
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, nick sussex said:

The EC46 should be put out of its misery ! 

I expect the wind direction is the same crud it’s dished out all winter ! 

 And sadly the ECMWF 46 so far have been right this winter sadly for those of us who like the wintry weather on like last year when it was predicting wintry Synoptics and none of which came off. ?

Link to post
Share on other sites

a cracking  start to the day. ..where the arguably most reliable  suite 00z. .is actually  better than the 18z. .great evolution. ..on both block format. ..and polar incursion. 

gfs-0-204.png

gfs-0-204.png

  • Like 8
Link to post
Share on other sites

Usually we fall back to earth with a bump but not with 00z is class. A northerly plunge of sorts looks likely...

280F680E-B447-4E99-9331-3A039955776E.thumb.png.7edb788d489f1c4106cabec9a68a018f.png9D658BFD-46A7-411E-A0FF-CFF84605B03F.thumb.png.57841eefed7088815f07525be9abf9d7.png

  • Like 8
Link to post
Share on other sites

Gfs looking very interesting for coldies days 6-10 atleast a cold northerly developing it is brief though then a more northeasterly but with a definite shift west with the high in this update. :oldgood:

289764900_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_180(1).thumb.jpg.bfad65e3c2ba63702afa0cc39cdc8a25.jpg

1991467738_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_192(1).thumb.jpg.a9e03e017b97874ef852a50553a6d8f4.jpg

965648598_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_210(1).thumb.jpg.182e86886e4a0fa6bd44744f51e31a15.jpg

Upper air temperatures.. ?

EUROPE_PRMSL_TMP850_180.thumb.jpg.44a8a2384f42b1a7521833cf44ed0a27.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_TMP850_192.thumb.jpg.56174cf2e0d321f625b1fc74cb9259a9.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_TMP850_204.thumb.jpg.a5057d00d6a01deeff800598d5c79ed2.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_TMP850_222.thumb.jpg.5d5bcaeb093410e8fb5fd4a3666f4cd0.jpgEUROPE_PRMSL_TMP850_240.thumb.jpg.eefa6a7aa41007151f84c6c0c8a3d0f5.jpg

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

gens_panel_dgl2.png  The panel illustrates how important the high is and where it goes to getting cold into the uk. Need the theme of last couple of runs to continue ??

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Good start to the day with GFS, but caution needed as it’s still in FI. Will the ECM show similar?

T168 is an improvement. ? I prefer ukmo at t144 tho.

AF29DC4C-FB0A-4D09-92DC-0FEBE1EDAC21.png

Edited by That ECM
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Bit more of a sobering ecm, especially later on and more in line with the Mets text forecasts, i.e. highnover the uk. Cracking gfs, although as some have already said, caution will be the buzz work, getting the azores high to ridge north has been like pulling teeth this winter, the powers that be also not even hinting at a northerly next week. 

Edited by KTtom
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Last year....totally wrong.  Some have short memories.

This year a stopped watch could have forecasted winter, with the benefit of hindsight.  

Anyway, I think a big finish for the pub run in the strat...T342

image.thumb.jpg.8e54a722e1f310b79ca3bf87641fd6b8.jpg

so it was completely wrong last year when the cold didn’t turn up but it’s crap this year when it doesn’t ???

its a useful week 3/4 tool and potential trends beyond that ......and it’s misused by all of us looking for winter as a slight high week 5 anomoly over ne England becomes a fully fledged scandi block with the desperation coldies have ......

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...