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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it w

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2 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

The gfs seems to be making more of the low se of Greenland

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yes it looks like that low will scutter any change of presure building in the mid Atlantic.anther topiler by the looks of it

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1 minute ago, igloo said:

yes it looks like that low will scutter any change of presure building in the mid Atlantic.anther topiler by the looks of it

 It might end up being a better run if it links with the ridge over Russia so panic over for now lol

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tbh  apart from a fleeting glimpse. .the 12th gfs just has a possible  road back to where we  have already  been....

@UK high  placement. ..

we've  been bitten with poison  before  here! 

anyway  let's see where we end up later this evening! ???

 

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Most decent cold spells start with a uk high (which migrates north and west) last time we were unlucky. PV is weakening over Greenland this time though, possibly effected by the strat warming. Let’s hope this time we get lucky! 

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1 run. ..1 snap. .

but YET AGAIN  highlights  just how tricky-getting cold into our shores is !!

while Europe  goes cold  we could sit  peering through  the euro window. ..salivating! !!

however. .with upper atmospheric  changes  and a now/by then notable cold European sheet. ...surely  we can get lucky. ..

an  eye on cross data's  now! !!!

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Looks like the models do agree on the jet stream in the Atlantic will buckle a bit, as usual how amplified it gets will depend on how cold it will get. 

Not bothered if it's not showing screaming northeries, the details are irrelevant, it's the fact all models agree on some sort of change in the Atlantic which is the more encouraging thing for me, something we barely seen in January. 

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The 12Z GEM has taken the more amplified route this afternoon compared to its earlier 00Z run. The High Pressure in the Atlantic for Wednesday next week poking much further Northwards with some shallows Lows diving underneath the ridge.  

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Colder air to the North of the UK filtering Southwards. 

The GEM 00Z below was flatter around the same time over the UK with more of a Westerly to North-Westerly flow.

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Still chilly, mind.

It is quite likely that this possible North-Westerly or Northerly flow may be transient as Low Pressure to the West of the ridging could just knock the High back South or perhaps push it directly over the UK. Although this sort of setup isn’t close enough yet to be totally sure of that. 
 

@Tim Bland was just thinking the same. A step up on its previous run anyway. ?

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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Not bad these, not flatlining at -10c but a good number of runs are consistently coldish for a period rather than just 12 hours zig zagging back up again.

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Stratospherically the op had downgraded over the last 24 hours with only a very slightly displaced vortex actually in the mid strat.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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It's interesting (and I suppose encouraging) to see that the PM air long forecast to reach us over the next couple of days looks like it will actually happen. I know it's not going to result in widespread snow but usually when the GFS counts this kind of PM shot down all the -5 air disappears completely. 

Might be the odd Wintry surprise over the next couple of days?

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7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I'm liking the 12z ensembles, very much plenty of eye candy... Here's some I've just picked from the warehouse with the forklift. ? Can guarantee Winter will begin just as its meant to be ending... Let's refrain from ramping though... ?

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But maybe the 12Zs aren't quite as encouraging as the 06Zs, Matt:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

But who knows...we could even end-up with a NW-SE tilted PFJ?

And, unfortunately, there's no sign of any <-10C T850s creeping into the Southeast...:cray:

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

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Maybe relevant, but our local ITV weather guy (they still use the Meto) just commented that the longer range output (Glosea maybe?) is showing Atlantic mobility for way into the foreseeable. Temps forecast to hit 13/14c locally by end of week.

Edited by Bristle boy
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7 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Maybe relevant, but our local ITV weather guy (they still use the Meto) just commented that the longer range output (Glosea maybe?) is showing Atlantic mobility for way into the foreseeable. Temps forecast to hit 13/14c locally by end of week.

I suspect any forecaster worth their salt uses the term ‘foreseeable’ as being pretty much that, about 5/6 days.  The Met O have discussed a similar mobile pattern out to that point (into and over the weekend) in their own forecasts today.  
 

On NW ‘foreseeable’ tends to mean, well as far as the model run goes and maybe a bit more for extra measure ?

 

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19 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Maybe relevant, but our local ITV weather guy (they still use the Meto) just commented that the longer range output (Glosea maybe?) is showing Atlantic mobility for way into the foreseeable. Temps forecast to hit 13/14c locally by end of week.

The ECM 12z may change there forecast ?

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