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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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...more interest for me is post D10 and how the tPv is now being modelled:

gfsnh-0-258.thumb.png.bed10e4d17e763e119f301ae8b9952af.pnggfsnh-1-258.thumb.png.990415b909332ea3ddcb4e503ae605b3.png

So there is mega cold moving south to mid-lats, just the UK in the wrong place as currently modelled. Whether we can tap into this cold or remain with scraps is the big question if this pattern change does verify?

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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it w

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...retrogression of the UK high in FI is a good signal:

gfseu-0-306.thumb.png.9dd64b8e02289955766f46e9ceb01c61.png

Usual caveats but this run suggests that background signal are impacting on the trop. Hopefully not a false dawn, though we know there can be flips quickly so such a development a possibility...

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18 minutes ago, IDO said:

...more interest for me is post D10 and how the tPv is now being modelled:

gfsnh-0-258.thumb.png.bed10e4d17e763e119f301ae8b9952af.pnggfsnh-1-258.thumb.png.990415b909332ea3ddcb4e503ae605b3.png

So there is mega cold moving south to mid-lats, just the UK in the wrong place as currently modelled. Whether we can tap into this cold or remain with scraps is the big question if this pattern change does verify?

Suppose could do really for any High Pressure and upper heights that get modelled in the Atlantic sector to not build too far East over the UK, which would suppress wintry precipitation (assuming it was cold enough). Plus, it could easily lead to the above result from those charts you posted with some of that deep cold being pushed into Scandinavia and away from the UK.

(Mind you, I would personally still choose a cool, dry, UK High over constant rainy weather from the Atlantic, particularly as longs it wasn’t a cloudy High). 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Eastern areas into the -10 uppers by the end with snow showers ?☃️ 

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You can actually see the cold front across eastern England on this map!!band of snow moving west across England and then snow showers following in from the east!absolute classic?

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2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Best winter overview chart of the season so far from ECM at 168t. Sort of backed up by this mornings extended UKMO chart. Our team over here talk about some interesting weather to affect South Britain (  Wales to the Wash ) in the time span 168t-216 T in the form of a wave or disturbance from the SW to bring quite a bit of rainfall and possibly snowfall to higher parts later. Of course more runs needed as the jet may even push this into France but the chance of colder weather are now getting in a bit closer in the time span. Think also to be noted that the prospects of the PV heading into Northern Finland may help the course to plotting a colder outlook. Hope the change comes soon for you guys as the winter has been rotten so far for cold lover anyway. I am really more optimistic this morning by the models and discussion just had.

C

overview_20200127_00_168.jpg

With regards to the above post, the latest GFS picks up the rain for Southern England at 168 t , this in association of the developing low /wave to track towards the British Isles from the SW. Their forecast 300mb jet would take a bit further North than hinted by our team over here. Think the models this evening from ECM and UKMO may have it a bit further south, which of course would be better from a colder point of view. Still on knife edge but a favourable run again from GFS going forward especially with the trough disruption shown against the increasing cold pool to develop further to the east and north.

c

GFSOPEU06_168_4.png

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50 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Yarmouth pier here I come!:clapping::yahoo:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Oh dear, I've broken the Eleventh Commandment, Thou Shall Not Ramp!?

Surely Lowestoft would be better?!

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Period between day 10-15 of interest. Morning EPS indicate a good support for marked cooled down for central EU with mean below -7C 850hPa, not many mild members either. This surely means HLB signal or MLB Atlantic high pressure

Capture.PNG

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3 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Period between day 10-15 of interest. Morning EPS indicate a good support for marked cooled down for central EU with mean below -7C 850hPa, not many mild members either. This surely means HLB signal or MLB Atlantic high pressure

Capture.PNG

From a UK perspective we just need to hope that any MLB is far enough to our west to allow us to tap into the colder air

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1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

From a UK perspective we just need to hope that any MLB is far enough to our west to allow us to tap into the colder air

East Anglia would be possibly the spot where the colder members would appear I would think first, not sure straight northerly will be managed first,probably cold shunted to continent first with a renewed push westwards later. But we were here before, I have seen good signals below resulting in modest revenue even for here is Slovakia, there is fair distance to travel west after. But we shall see

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A bit more support growing for a high to the west and some colder air heading south on its eastern flank .

Two issues remain though , shortwave energy in the mid Atlantic and how this is resolved and whether the UK gets a direct hit of the coldest air .

The second issue is directly related to the troughing upstream and how amplified that is and that is in turn effected by events in the Pacific .

We need to see a more negatively tilted trough or at worse neutral .

The GFS06 hrs run suggests several chances but that’s well into FI territory. 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, jules216 said:

East Anglia would be possibly the spot where the colder members would appear I would think first, not sure straight northerly will be managed first,probably cold shunted to continent first with a renewed push westwards later. But we were here before, I have seen good signals below resulting in modest revenue even for here is Slovakia, there is fair distance to travel west after. But we shall see

Good progression of the snow line on latest GFS 06z run from Russia initially then all the way to France and Belgium and knocking on the door of the rest of NW Europe by the end of the run. Albeit in fi.

Still its a positive and it's always good to get the continental landmass to our East cold first to tap into and benefit from any East or NElys down the line

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It's nice to see both the control and operational runs nose-diving toward Narnia, by Day 16. Though, I'd be more excited were it Day 6!:yahoo:

t850Norfolk.png    t2mNorfolk.png

But what we don't need, is 4 posh kids and a cloth lion buggering things up!:oldlaugh:

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44 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

From a UK perspective we just need to hope that any MLB is far enough to our west to allow us to tap into the colder air

Definitely as I eluded to earlier inoreivous posts. That seems key but what drivers will that depend on to happen that's the bit I can't decipher from the charts... Can anyone suggest anything to watch please 

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On ‎23‎/‎01‎/‎2020 at 13:38, Timmytour said:

I have been comforting myself this winter with the fact that I am off skiing to Ischgl in Austria for the second week of February and would at least see some snow there!  Mind you, even that's been a worry!

But as that time comes into the range of the models, I'm reminded that when I was last there two years ago, it coincided with perhaps the best bit of winter weather we've had for many a year as the "Beast from the East" visited. By the time I returned the excitement and the snow was on its last legs.

There's just a hint in the far reaches of the models that, once again, I could miss out on a nice bit of UK winter weather. Perhaps not in the same class as 2018's week, but certainly one which, if it did materialise, would be sensational when compared to what we have endured so far this winter.

 

This is all beginning to look like UK winters have got it in for me with those GFS charts in FI coinciding with me being away yet again!  I might have to travel to Ischgl in December later this year to kick our winter in quicker!

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33 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

This is all beginning to look like UK winters have got it in for me with those GFS charts in FI coinciding with me being away yet again!  I might have to travel to Ischgl in December later this year to kick our winter in quicker!

It’s always luck of the draw with our weather. Very difficult to know when it’ll do what. Last year we had spring in Feb, the year before snow, the year before the Atlantic switched on midmonth...

Ill be away in the southern US for business from the 19th so I can hold my wintry interest until then. After I get back I’ll be in spring mode.

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28 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Good looking ICON at 180 and colder air heading south.

iconnh-0-180.thumb.png.f0c3dffbc1943980732bdd38a9dca09f.pngiconnh-1-180.thumb.png.8c14ac065f8763d1cd8254d99fdaf60a.png

 

Whilst that big red blob sits over Iberia there is no chance of anything other than a fleeting sideswipe (sadly).

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