Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

Recommended Posts

29 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM is broadly similar to last nights run.

It does look a bit of a stalemate though with troughing to the west and the high stuck to the east but in terms of NH pattern compared to the GFS it’s alot better with the PV blob of doom split .

Probably might find it’ll be one of those classic battles that both the Atlantic Trough and the Eastern UK High like to have on occasions! He hee.

(assuming models like the ECMWF are close to the mark) 🙂 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I may be wrong but this seems like first time two consecutive ECM runs have shown scandi height rises in the extended.  The 12z has tended to show it only for the 0z to taketh away.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I may be wrong but this seems like first time two consecutive ECM runs have shown scandi height rises in the extended.  The 12z has tended to show it only for the 0z to taketh away.

 

Scandi high is v plausible MS ..... it’s just that there is not much sign of anything other than a euro high sitting below  it ... looking through the eps members perhaps half a dozen runs that get a surface high far enough north to allow a cold easterly flow 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM is broadly similar to last nights run.

It does look a bit of a stalemate though with troughing to the west and the high stuck to the east but in terms of NH pattern compared to the GFS it’s alot better with the PV blob of doom split .

The GFS is to be blunt a horror show of epic proportions for coldies at day ten .

And the GEFS are dire, unremittingly mild and probably pretty wet - just for a change 😠. Any -10's completely absent.

image.thumb.png.82ff7f78f64166cd9ec093e63eb83629.png

The 2M temps may just scrap a ground frost with some rogue members - if you're very lucky! 😂

image.thumb.png.95fcd586d3b0e937d0b4a7eda29a7249.png

Edited by Purga

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Morning peeps.

Well, in the absence of any suggestion of my favourite weather (endless days of falling snow), I'll have to make-do with my second favourite, and imagine that Tuesday might still break the all-time record for warmth...?:yahoo:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Meanwhile, that TPV does look to be very well ensconced?:whistling:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Scandi high is v plausible MS ..... it’s just that there is not much sign of anything other than a euro high sitting below  it ... looking through the eps members perhaps half a dozen runs that get a surface high far enough north to allow a cold easterly flow 

I fear any high pressure will not get far enough west and things turning very ugly(wet) for the UK as the relentless Atlantic slows up at our shores.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Morning peeps.

Well, in the absence of any suggestion of my favourite weather (endless days of falling snow), I'll have to make-do with my second favourite, and imagine that Tuesday might still break the all-time record for warmth...?:yahoo:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Meanwhile, that TPV does look to be very well ensconced?:whistling:

Yeah in spring and summer you can’t beat it but in winter it’s absolutely gross!!

unless there’s a pretty big change soon then this winter will be pretty much as bad as last winter here.

imo there’s very few crumbs in the models at all atm it’s all pretty ........?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Here's crumb...? Has the eponymous 'channel runner' made a timely comeback?:shok:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Och well, another crumb is condemned to the waste-basket of fantasy!😆

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Edited by General Cluster

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Day 10 eps spread  shows where we are currently headed

the square shows the likely strength of the sceuro upper ridge and the rectangle the direction of flow which is ne and won’t allow the ridge to gain enough traction to make it interesting for us. 
 

80334068-BE77-47A8-8BA2-9F0CAD6CA21B.thumb.jpeg.f66b0d3dc80ec4bb76f07bced294eb78.jpeg

But it might create a context for temperatures that might challenge a January warm record or two. Signal for trough digging into the mid Atlantic opens the door to the possibility of a long draw SW stream for a day or two. Sigh. Hard work at the moment while we wait to see if late month evolutions can shake the tree.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM is broadly similar to last nights run.

It does look a bit of a stalemate though with troughing to the west and the high stuck to the east but in terms of NH pattern compared to the GFS it’s alot better with the PV blob of doom split .

The GFS is to be blunt a horror show of epic proportions for coldies at day ten .

If I’m honest, I’d take the GFS over the ECM at day 10. The former at least has us in a W’ly flow with temperatures close to average in the north and snowfalls piling into Scotland’s mountains at times...

60814901-1710-4634-A2DC-F828BCB3B8AC.thumb.jpeg.20abbb627ce869508bfa45838c25a788.jpeg

ECM on the other hand sets us up for a protracted battle between a MLB and Atlantic troughing, which will likely result in nowt but an extended spell of long-draw southerly winds.

Bring on rampant zonality, I say...at least we’ll get some Pm air in the flow from time to time and can hope that the jet works its way south later on in the month, giving us a better ratio of Pm:Tm airmasses.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well the idea of a ‘possible’ ridge development is not there today/last evening. Ec/GFS both suggest troughing as the main feature for the UK upper air.EC keeps a suggestion of some ridging just e of the UK but not so much with GFS.

NOAA has marked troughing, similar to EC, still with a slight signal for ridging E of the UK, and towards the far N of Norway/NW Russia.

So overall there is as yet no real signal for any major wave length change for the foreseeable future. NW-SE split with the worst of wind and rain in the NW’ern areas.

The 8-14 NOAA is 'perhaps' showing a glimmer of something developing?

The 500 mb anomaly charts below

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The D10 charts for GFS 06z (op, control & mean):

gfs-0-240.thumb.png.0fa750f86c6a6b865492826da37bb614.pnggens-0-1-240.thumb.png.9786b21194f43a86f579c9416d4fb435.png1007707311_gens-21-1-240(6).thumb.png.c83be0edb567f672346f3a8d0980a646.png

None really anywhere to the ECM D10 chart from this morning. The GEM and ECM mean:

624515421_EDM1-240(5).thumb.gif.1d58d4a425968a74e30ff2dbd99ff608.gif1011194498_gens-21-1-240(7).thumb.png.04723aaa1efff0555fb93012bbc0e9bd.png

No support there, so low chance of verifying.

The GFS 06z mean and op all suggesting a euro high with the tPV circulating to the north and NW/SE split over the UK, with most of Europe in anomalous positive uppers right out till D16+. Zero HL blocking in the whole NH. The party being run by the three HP cells and the tPV that we know will be a winter waster.

I doubt this pattern will go on into February so hopefully FI should start showing us something different by the end of the week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

The problem with any forecast cooler westerlies by the GFS is a bias at the longer range to have the jet further south than what verifies .

Generally with a strong PV to the north and high to the south as you get closer in everything is shunted further north and you end up with mild dross .

So further north but not enough to help the UK with any high .

The reason I prefer the ECM is the PV has at least split and it’s easier to escape to something better .

Of course you could still end up with a stalemate but at this stage it’s hard to see anything colder unless it comes from a shunt much further north or ne of the Euro limpet high .

We would need though more sharpening of the upstream trough and more dig south of energy .

But key is you need a gap for the high to move to. The GFS won’t provide that with the PV stuck where it is.

We are of course scraping the barrel here , ordinarily the ECM wouldn’t gather much interest but there’s really nothing much else on offer !

Edited by nick sussex

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The pin ball low returns with U.K. fax 120 hrs,the GFS showed it a while ago then dropped it.

The bigger picture GFS relentless low after low,ECM Euro high sitting central with poor orientation 

from the continent giving the southerly flow over us not a lot to pick from,but a chance of more seasonal

temperatures with GFS.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

The low pressure system for Thursday is proving uncertain over how deep it will be and if it develops into a more complex system with two centres which in turn would take the intensity out of it as it crosses the central part of the UK the Gem and Gfs as well as the Ncmrwf really develop this into a potent low bringing some very strong winds to southern central and western regions the Ecm is less developed but still brings some very wet and windy weather to England and Wales there could be some sleet or snow on the northern edge of this system for the far north of England and more particularly Scotland but nothing significant is likely. 

GFS.. 

737544954_EUROPE_PRMSL_108(7).thumb.jpg.38b466459b8b18fe4dbff9dc53d13689.jpg

Wind gusts.. 👇

EUROPE_PRMSL_2MWIND_108.thumb.jpg.bef82fa78fc113f716bb540b3eee0fd6.jpg

Rainfall.. 👇

784224705_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_108(4).thumb.jpg.5d3f017b4c3811a15a456ae5171948bf.jpg

Gem.. 

754802395_EUROPE_PRMSL_96(5).thumb.jpg.965011dd724321e29d01de76e1e21593.jpg

1035782453_EUROPE_PRMSL_108(6).thumb.jpg.9e70bf4d0762637f8411646e040008ad.jpg

Ecmwf.. 

1959717074_EUROPE_PRMSL_96(6).thumb.jpg.c2d6d25fcbcbb1f7d44df6ea3ece4cba.jpg

Ncmrwf.. 

752964376_EUROPE_PRMSL_108(8).thumb.jpg.24835631ae8237665fa12ae9970a4644.jpg

68139000_EUROPE_PRMSL_120(12).thumb.jpg.9d92e2deb7b277b9186d86b16168464e.jpg

Whatever the caselst models show it weakening rapidly and filling as it cross the uk  (pressure rising within it) system possibly fizzling out within the westerly flow once its cleared the uk late Thursday or Friday. 

850077_EUROPE_PRMSL_126(6).thumb.jpg.31a92883a792fd6ac8302c4df9e4881a.jpg

Wind gusts.. 👇

EUROPE_PRMSL_2MWIND_120.thumb.jpg.258c8e8555ef81ae4b9037304cbaae26.jpg

Things look set to become more unsettled thereafter looking at latest trends from the models..

Here's a look at the Jetstream from the Gfs.. 

1846403402_EUROPE_JETSTREAM_180(3).thumb.jpg.31206bd5801ac8c24e71e867e2e919cc.jpg

A strong jetstream forecast which will aid in rapid cyclogeneses such as on the low below for the 12-14th the track of this at this range will be uncertain ofcourse but probably across the UK. 

3613295_EUROPE_PRMSL_180(11).thumb.jpg.c9ce34784f1df385bab556ec944533fe.jpg

1037003751_EUROPE_PRMSL_210(5).thumb.jpg.fa3efe2d07961a3e12612d00fc3cf632.jpg

1217886702_EUROPE_PRMSL_222(2).thumb.jpg.74475cf74bfd5118087525f0d378c1d5.jpg

The Gfs keeps things very unsettled for all areas into its very extended range but as that's a way out things could change from that. 

Towards and at day 10 the Ecm shows very unsettled even stormy conditions too but with higher pressure just to the east slowing the progression of Atlantic storms with it making an attempt at building towards Scandinavia but its the Atlantic low pressure systems that are the main influence and Very mild too. 

Ecmwf.. 👇

1934704773_EUROPE_PRMSL_216(6).thumb.jpg.bd5f442e21af20191f1fcd8e9af0a284.jpg

1799562938_EUROPE_PRMSL_240(25).thumb.jpg.30151c72f0bbb26d3bf42b5823a7ab2e.jpg

Putting all three models Gfs Ecmwf and the Gem together and their average output not much has changed since yesterday a very unsettled pattern is most likely upto day 10 and possibly a few days beyond with some very mild weather in warm sectors very windy at times with perhaps a few intense low pressure systems crossing close by and over the UK bringing some stormy weather which is another thing that has distinctly lacked this winter aswell as snow with generally unsettled conditions for all with frequent rain but there will be some drier days between these systems too with sunny spells at times too ofcourse. 

1835862089_EUROPE_PRMSL_180(10).thumb.jpg.393433f2243db75de587a70787cc0577.jpg

2130784726_EUROPE_PRMSL_216(5).thumb.jpg.6f644364510e7dd9db24d048eb3a236c.jpg

120566550_EUROPE_PRMSL_234(6).thumb.jpg.8816168d318a159b1497247a6e7f5de0.jpg

Edited by jordan smith

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, tinybill said:

its  a  pity  we  cant send this to people down under

gfs-2-108.png

Your wish is my command. Precipitation/temperatures beginning to play ball and into the desired regions ✌️😝✌️@last 🙏

IMG_0165.PNG

IMG_0166.PNG

IMG_0167.PNG

Edited by tight isobar

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

CFS starting to sniff the 09 / 91 SSW redux.

image.thumb.png.d3e75851662505f10e5cbf23bb27e5f3.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Latest Ukmo dismisses the painful looking low later in the week with something pretty weak  .....

Edited by bluearmy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Latest Ukmo dismisses the painful looking low later in the week with something pretty weak  .....

The GFS makes more of it, with colder 850s. Doesn’t make a diff to any snow in the U.K. though!! 

C96B9C2C-15A7-4B03-84FE-E951AE02C865.gif

618D651E-C96F-4BB9-8A40-3ED16BC67A59.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is the best part of the GFS run - lovely hemispheric pattern & nice scandi ridge with cold backing Westwards.

image.thumb.png.dd53a000d89d342a0c2cc8ca39e5b2ae.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another attempt and a Scandi high, this would tie in with some of the ensembles that we have seen for this period.

gfsnh-0-384.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

yes the warmer it gets the colder it will get once all the bottled up air in the Arctic explodes out,gfs leading the way,we hope

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...