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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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2 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:

2 years ago last year and this year same date.

 

AVN_1_2018012800_1.pngAVN_1_2019012800_1.pngimage.thumb.png.11111797318d4bc533ff70eafd518c41.png

Have to say, out of those 3 charts the last two - the 2019 and 2020 ones - look a lot more preferable in terms of colder weather for the UK and have better amplification of High Pressure out West. More so on that middle 2019 chart! And yet, the 2018 charts earlier that year lead to that big monstrous beast from the East in late February. 

Think I do agree that considering we’re still in January, definitely feel the towels regarding February to be hold on to for now. Even though the longer range models might look quite glum. But I suppose the possibility of a Stratospheric warming event that the GFS has been hinting at near the end of its runs could lead to some more interesting outlooks for cold and wintry weather eventually.

Hopefully the period between Monday and Wednesday this week can still throw about some wintry surprises for some. 

The GFS admittedly being the most optimistic with the potency of the 850 hPa temperatures for Tuesday (example at mid day):

9168B0A2-DD50-4F61-818A-173E0DB583F3.thumb.png.119a68a92c42ac00a5b2962fd84b3ded.png

The GEM showing patchier area of -5*C and slightly colder 850 hPa temperatures for the middle part of that day over Southern UK:

B88D9C4C-7D75-4FE1-BD19-33737BF02F24.thumb.png.4974d11b2c99cd77d0796ab32d33a676.png
 

Nevertheless, the ICON and ARPEGE below being a little less optimistic mid day on Tuesday mixing out the pool of -5*C 850 hPa temperatures - many areas of the UK probably experiencing -3 to -4*C 850 hPa temperatures:

C2129B39-FFDC-47A9-9A4E-5725B0C19E36.thumb.png.6d88ed5cbd3d2743cce61d77fb6b7dde.png55B66E57-B687-4877-885D-9A38D7E7F290.thumb.png.547e60450ceb378ab2783bce8205ccbb.png

GFS would likely paint the wintriest scenario for that day. Especially for those on high ground. The model which I would love to be close to the mark regarding its handling of the 850 hPa temperatures on Tuesday. Though there is a chance it’s exaggerating those 850 hpa temperatures, since most other models mix them out more.

That’s not to say that Tuesday morning and/or Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, for example, couldn’t still see some wintriness to showers to lower levels, especially towards Western and Northern UK areas, if the GFS was indeed modelling those 850 hPa temperatures to be a little too cold. I think there is a reasonably good chance both the hills and some lower levels to see a mixture of rain, hail, sleet and snow at times. Seeing wintriness to lower levels being more the case for any showers or longer spells of precipitation that is heavy, as would encourage evaporative cooling. 

I mean it would probably be fair to say the further North and West you are, and the higher your elevation, the better at seeing some some sleet or snow. 

While I wouldn’t rule out anything wintry here at this level in the Midlands, a trip to one of the higher spots, like the Pennines, the Mendips, a Scottish hill, Snowdonia and its high ground or the Carding Mill Valley hills at Church Stretton in Shropshire does seem tempting. Almost makes me wish I was off on Tuesday. May be the best shot at experiencing some snow before February rolls by. ❄️

9D7651FE-E24E-46DC-82F0-845D77EB7CDA.thumb.jpeg.9f413a77e07ceee5bd1b65ee51cc2501.jpeg83332094-93C4-40F3-BF40-CF0B47AF39E1.thumb.jpeg.b0ec8ea6c9dda60a6f7c1727098b185f.jpeg9188D177-A987-41E0-9C08-E0C419AC45E7.thumb.jpeg.f78acec573c37971483255c9fc6aea2f.jpegC4006BA5-BA70-4596-B77F-AA8FAA2AB3BC.thumb.jpeg.8d622e059e77f8f41ee21b6f1deb7188.jpeg
But you might find you may not need to go anywhere at all. 🤔❄️

(Sorry for the rambly post. When there’s currently been a Winter greatly lacking of snow, getting excited by possible upcoming wintry weather, while it’s looking to be marginal, seems like a really easy thing to do lol).

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Adding the word: eventually

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image.thumb.png.d27b4a5738d25c741c11f8c1d799bec3.png

Phwoar.

Nothing showing up to offer any real excitement just yet at the trop level, but with charts like these then surely it won't be too long before we see the tPV get absolutely shredded.  Really is the last chance saloon now, but I'm optimistic for a decent cold spell cropping up by the end of Feb now.  

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5 minutes ago, weatherguy said:

image.thumb.png.d27b4a5738d25c741c11f8c1d799bec3.png

Phwoar.

Nothing showing up to offer any real excitement just yet at the trop level, but with charts like these then surely it won't be too long before we see the tPV get absolutely shredded.  Really is the last chance saloon now, but I'm optimistic for a decent cold spell cropping up by the end of Feb now.  

The only year in recent times that I can think of that changed to a more favourable pattern for cold in February after limited cold patterns earlier in the winter was 2005, although Feb 2012 saw a cold spell in the first half after not much in the earlier part of the winter.  That said Feb 2018 was also a fairly cold month coming after a fairly mild January 2018, although it likely was less mild overall than this month will turn out to be.  Next month if we got something akin to Feb 2018 I am sure most people would be happy with that, but given the fact of how rare in recent times cold weather in February has been after a poor January and earlier part of winter it does make one think that the chances of salvaging something worthwhile out of February are not very optimistic.  The output will soon have to start becoming more promising if we are to have any chance of February delivering something.

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lets see what position there will be

 image.thumb.png.9f34c0030addb9da39a2af3e628ae50e.pngimage.thumb.png.19e1483aef4a328673411f1936026caf.png

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7 minutes ago, Dennis said:

lets see what position there will be

 image.thumb.png.9f34c0030addb9da39a2af3e628ae50e.pngimage.thumb.png.19e1483aef4a328673411f1936026caf.png

Game on, but wide spread on the ao

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Poor GFS 12z be it fi .strong PV to the NNW which seems relentless 😔

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10 minutes ago, swfc said:

Poor GFS 12z be it fi .strong PV to the NNW which seems relentless 😔

Just a. Matter of time. Strat wise there are changes afoot. Plus, it's picking up on ssw signal... Hopefully this will Manifest intself in the charts over the emxt couple of days fingers crossed. Maybe even the pub run.. 

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6 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

Just a. Matter of time. Strat wise there are changes afoot. Plus, it's picking up on ssw signal... Hopefully this will Manifest intself in the charts over the emxt couple of days fingers crossed. Maybe even the pub run.. 

Maybe ?ssw is possible but nothing certain even then.heres hoping but look on the strat thread,looks like a close but no cigar for us on the ec

Edited by swfc

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4 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

Just a. Matter of time. Strat wise there are changes afoot. Plus, it's picking up on ssw signal... Hopefully this will Manifest intself in the charts over the emxt couple of days fingers crossed. Maybe even the pub run.. 

a SSW event isn't forecasted just a slight displacement.in any case we had one last season and got nothing from that one so I think your hope casting sorry

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6 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

Just a. Matter of time. Strat wise there are changes afoot. Plus, it's picking up on ssw signal... Hopefully this will Manifest intself in the charts over the emxt couple of days fingers crossed. Maybe even the pub run.. 

This has been posted in the start thread, if this comes of and it is a big if we could end up with nothing!

0F275536-D0C5-4BBC-B80A-1BBDC3901C4F.jpeg

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5 minutes ago, fromey said:

This has been posted in the start thread, if this comes of and it is a big if we could end up with nothing!

0F275536-D0C5-4BBC-B80A-1BBDC3901C4F.jpeg

Yes but once it is split at this time of year, it aint ever getting back to its December default so would be open to further attacks, agree though i do think most of February will be a right off now so we are looking right at last knock ins.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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The GEM ends very nice.

image.thumb.png.15bf0bc1827d2ae7c4ffaf7c9febc124.png

 

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5 minutes ago, karyo said:

So basically whether we get a SSW or not, the result for western Europe is mild. I'd rather we don't get a SSW if it is going to waste the Arctic cold to North America and start spring on the wrong foot for the Arctic ice.

Shall we just wait and see what actually happens before we start throwing our toys out the pram?

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12 minutes ago, fromey said:

This has been posted in the start thread, if this comes of and it is a big if we could end up with nothing!

0F275536-D0C5-4BBC-B80A-1BBDC3901C4F.jpeg

Note he says 'huge pinch of salt'! Just one EC run! Wouldn't hang on every word that's posted on social media, even pro mets.

As well as uncertainty in the strat, MJO uncertainty too. After a brief visit in 6 both EC and GEFS go back into COD, EC stays in there but GEFS comes out in P2 then over to 3. Could lead to some different outcomes from models.

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.thumb.gif.dfd8a9fb06d0dfa7b2e4cdc8fbc54c8d.gif

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40 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Note he says 'huge pinch of salt'! Just one EC run! Wouldn't hang on every word that's posted on social media, even pro mets.

As well as uncertainty in the strat, MJO uncertainty too. After a brief visit in 6 both EC and GEFS go back into COD, EC stays in there but GEFS comes out in P2 then over to 3. Could lead to some different outcomes from models.

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.thumb.gif.dfd8a9fb06d0dfa7b2e4cdc8fbc54c8d.gif

I wouldn't mind 2 or 3 - could that not lead to an East Asian mountain torque event?

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1 hour ago, Nick F said:

Note he says 'huge pinch of salt'! Just one EC run! Wouldn't hang on every word that's posted on social media, even pro mets.

As well as uncertainty in the strat, MJO uncertainty too. After a brief visit in 6 both EC and GEFS go back into COD, EC stays in there but GEFS comes out in P2 then over to 3. Could lead to some different outcomes from models.

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.thumb.gif.dfd8a9fb06d0dfa7b2e4cdc8fbc54c8d.gif

That’s why I put “a big IF”! It’s just one run of many possibilities, so many things to get through first

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11 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Any thoughts on ECM!! Wouldn't take much fine tuning to bring in some action.. 

ECM1-216.gif

ECM1-240.gif

ECM0-216.gif

ECM0-240.gif

ECH1-240.gif

My thoughts? The unrelenting crud-fest that is winter 2019-2020 goes on and on and on...

image.thumb.png.6ae179c981ffc1e22a332c88305c0933.png

That big blob of purple over the pole isn't going to let anything of wintry interest happen

 

Edited by LRD

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ECM looks quite tasty. A few. Tweaks of the ingredients and the meal becomes A Banquet 

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1 minute ago, Snowfish2 said:

ECM looks quite tasty. A few. Tweaks of the ingredients and the meal becomes A Banquet 

Not very helpful, these one-liners. It would be appreciated if you posted some charts to point out what makes it 'tasty'

Cheers.

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9 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

ECM looks quite tasty. A few. Tweaks of the ingredients and the meal becomes A Banquet 

Yeah? All I can see is a rapidly sinking high and a powerful PV.

The ECM 240hrs looks an awful long way from cold (if it looks like that or anything like that at the time)

Edited by LRD

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9 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Not very helpful, these one-liners. It would be appreciated if you posted some charts to point out what makes it 'tasty'

Cheers.

Certainly.  This one below showing tasty 850s close by to the UK. Backed A little more westerly and it would be a totally different ball game bringing into play northerlies... M ECM0-240.webp

EAA4AB58-C834-47D6-B198-A35255637A06.thumb.png.168c89da65d1ca200d3a0d53d63f4316.png

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
(Image version of chart included)

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It's all about the potential. Sure as it stands it doesn't produce much but like Mattwolves suggests a few tweaks and it would be game on. The polar vortex is shown to be showing signs of dividing in addition to this

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1 minute ago, Snowfish2 said:

It's all about the potential. Sure as it stands it doesn't produce much but like Mattwolves suggests a few tweaks and it would be game on. The polar vortex is shown to be showing signs of dividing in addition to this

That chart would at least bring bright blue skies and relatively chilly conditions is heaps better than the current tropical-induced muck we're stuck with most of the time. I'd have thought it be welcomed whether wintry or not. 

I know the GFS often overdoes warm and cold 850s but there are -6/7 uppers between milder days on recent runs, which even pegged back to -4/5 can bring snow showers to many.

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