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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it w

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10 minutes ago, swfc said:

Poor GFS 12z be it fi .strong PV to the NNW which seems relentless ?

Just a. Matter of time. Strat wise there are changes afoot. Plus, it's picking up on ssw signal... Hopefully this will Manifest intself in the charts over the emxt couple of days fingers crossed. Maybe even the pub run.. 

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6 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

Just a. Matter of time. Strat wise there are changes afoot. Plus, it's picking up on ssw signal... Hopefully this will Manifest intself in the charts over the emxt couple of days fingers crossed. Maybe even the pub run.. 

Maybe ?ssw is possible but nothing certain even then.heres hoping but look on the strat thread,looks like a close but no cigar for us on the ec

Edited by swfc
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4 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

Just a. Matter of time. Strat wise there are changes afoot. Plus, it's picking up on ssw signal... Hopefully this will Manifest intself in the charts over the emxt couple of days fingers crossed. Maybe even the pub run.. 

a SSW event isn't forecasted just a slight displacement.in any case we had one last season and got nothing from that one so I think your hope casting sorry

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6 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

Just a. Matter of time. Strat wise there are changes afoot. Plus, it's picking up on ssw signal... Hopefully this will Manifest intself in the charts over the emxt couple of days fingers crossed. Maybe even the pub run.. 

This has been posted in the start thread, if this comes of and it is a big if we could end up with nothing!

0F275536-D0C5-4BBC-B80A-1BBDC3901C4F.jpeg

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5 minutes ago, fromey said:

This has been posted in the start thread, if this comes of and it is a big if we could end up with nothing!

0F275536-D0C5-4BBC-B80A-1BBDC3901C4F.jpeg

Yes but once it is split at this time of year, it aint ever getting back to its December default so would be open to further attacks, agree though i do think most of February will be a right off now so we are looking right at last knock ins.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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5 minutes ago, karyo said:

So basically whether we get a SSW or not, the result for western Europe is mild. I'd rather we don't get a SSW if it is going to waste the Arctic cold to North America and start spring on the wrong foot for the Arctic ice.

Shall we just wait and see what actually happens before we start throwing our toys out the pram?

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12 minutes ago, fromey said:

This has been posted in the start thread, if this comes of and it is a big if we could end up with nothing!

0F275536-D0C5-4BBC-B80A-1BBDC3901C4F.jpeg

Note he says 'huge pinch of salt'! Just one EC run! Wouldn't hang on every word that's posted on social media, even pro mets.

As well as uncertainty in the strat, MJO uncertainty too. After a brief visit in 6 both EC and GEFS go back into COD, EC stays in there but GEFS comes out in P2 then over to 3. Could lead to some different outcomes from models.

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.thumb.gif.dfd8a9fb06d0dfa7b2e4cdc8fbc54c8d.gif

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40 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Note he says 'huge pinch of salt'! Just one EC run! Wouldn't hang on every word that's posted on social media, even pro mets.

As well as uncertainty in the strat, MJO uncertainty too. After a brief visit in 6 both EC and GEFS go back into COD, EC stays in there but GEFS comes out in P2 then over to 3. Could lead to some different outcomes from models.

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.thumb.gif.dfd8a9fb06d0dfa7b2e4cdc8fbc54c8d.gif

I wouldn't mind 2 or 3 - could that not lead to an East Asian mountain torque event?

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1 hour ago, Nick F said:

Note he says 'huge pinch of salt'! Just one EC run! Wouldn't hang on every word that's posted on social media, even pro mets.

As well as uncertainty in the strat, MJO uncertainty too. After a brief visit in 6 both EC and GEFS go back into COD, EC stays in there but GEFS comes out in P2 then over to 3. Could lead to some different outcomes from models.

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.thumb.gif.dfd8a9fb06d0dfa7b2e4cdc8fbc54c8d.gif

That’s why I put “a big IF”! It’s just one run of many possibilities, so many things to get through first

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11 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Any thoughts on ECM!! Wouldn't take much fine tuning to bring in some action.. 

ECM1-216.gif

ECM1-240.gif

ECM0-216.gif

ECM0-240.gif

ECH1-240.gif

My thoughts? The unrelenting crud-fest that is winter 2019-2020 goes on and on and on...

image.thumb.png.6ae179c981ffc1e22a332c88305c0933.png

That big blob of purple over the pole isn't going to let anything of wintry interest happen

 

Edited by LRD
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1 minute ago, Snowfish2 said:

ECM looks quite tasty. A few. Tweaks of the ingredients and the meal becomes A Banquet 

Not very helpful, these one-liners. It would be appreciated if you posted some charts to point out what makes it 'tasty'

Cheers.

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9 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

ECM looks quite tasty. A few. Tweaks of the ingredients and the meal becomes A Banquet 

Yeah? All I can see is a rapidly sinking high and a powerful PV.

The ECM 240hrs looks an awful long way from cold (if it looks like that or anything like that at the time)

Edited by LRD
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9 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Not very helpful, these one-liners. It would be appreciated if you posted some charts to point out what makes it 'tasty'

Cheers.

Certainly.  This one below showing tasty 850s close by to the UK. Backed A little more westerly and it would be a totally different ball game bringing into play northerlies... M ECM0-240.webp

EAA4AB58-C834-47D6-B198-A35255637A06.thumb.png.168c89da65d1ca200d3a0d53d63f4316.png

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
(Image version of chart included)
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1 minute ago, Snowfish2 said:

It's all about the potential. Sure as it stands it doesn't produce much but like Mattwolves suggests a few tweaks and it would be game on. The polar vortex is shown to be showing signs of dividing in addition to this

That chart would at least bring bright blue skies and relatively chilly conditions is heaps better than the current tropical-induced muck we're stuck with most of the time. I'd have thought it be welcomed whether wintry or not. 

I know the GFS often overdoes warm and cold 850s but there are -6/7 uppers between milder days on recent runs, which even pegged back to -4/5 can bring snow showers to many.

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8 minutes ago, LRD said:

Yeah? All I can see is a rapidly sinking high and a powerful PV.

The ECM 240hrs looks an awful long way from cold (if it looks like that or anything like that at the time)

I can't see much 'snow potential' either, LRD...If the way the GFS12Z ends is anything at all to go by, widespread, long-lasting cold & snow could be last things we need worry about??

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

And even Those Who Cannot Be Named are mentioning large diurnal ranges, during sunny weather, later in February...

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3 minutes ago, MP-R said:

That chart would at least bring bright blue skies and relatively chilly conditions is heaps better than the current tropical-induced muck we're stuck with most of the time. I'd have thought it be welcomed whether wintry or not. 

I know the GFS often overdoes warm and cold 850s but there are -6/7 uppers between milder days on recent runs, which even pegged back to -4/5 can bring snow showers to many.

Yeah but come on. Most people on here are not looking for 'relatively chilly' conditions and blue skies. They're looking for snow and deep cold

A frosty few days before westerlies return will not cut it. And that's what the last two frames of the ECM show. Look, I'm all for being positive and hate being negative for its own sake but I don't try and put lipstick on a pig either

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15 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

It's all about the potential. Sure as it stands it doesn't produce much but like Mattwolves suggests a few tweaks and it would be game on. The polar vortex is shown to be showing signs of dividing in addition to this

Yes mate, my main point regarding my post was the vortex was showing signs of separating some what! Like I said earlier, we need a split vortex, and we need it to fall favourable... I'm not gonna even attempt to sugar coat this winter... There is only 1 thing that can save it... Ie, a complete factory reset of the NH.. I did say we need a few tweaks.... But it appears some already think..... We are up @hit creek, without a tweak.. ?Anyway let's see what the ens say... ?

Edited by Mattwolves
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34 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

Certainly.  This one below showing tasty 850s close by to the UK. Backed A little more westerly and it would be a totally different ball game bringing into play northerlies... M ECM0-240.webp

EAA4AB58-C834-47D6-B198-A35255637A06.thumb.png.168c89da65d1ca200d3a0d53d63f4316.png

How I would like that chart to verify for the Eastern Alps ! Colder runs always out of reach for any confidence. Certainly, the ECM run this evenings offers some hope of colder temperatures for you lot back in Blighty.

 C

 

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