Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


Recommended Posts

23 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

quite defined cold clustering on the London EPS graph and GEFS just the slightest tiniest hint of troughing dropping into Europe.

Yer some genuine flat liners starting to appear towards the end . 

3C27FA2F-9A9C-48F5-9843-A9F664602E37.png

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it w

Posted Images

On 24/01/2020 at 23:12, Geordiesnow said:

 

Looking at the shorter term prospects, subtle changes in the ECM and UKMO this evening in the 4-5 day timeframe, less influence of the azores high and more of an atlantic influence.. perhaps a sign the jet might be aligning itself on a more amplifed NW-SE position, with the end destination for heights to ridge through to the west of the UK.. marking a more concerted pattern change. GFS gets there eventually, ECM showing ridge/heights to the west building as well..

Are we seeing signs of a weakening atlantic caused by low heights anchoring over NE USA seaboard and heights building to the west... I think perhaps so..

  • Like 7
Link to post
Share on other sites

Again this morning it would appear that we’re looking out into Fl territory for any sign of a pattern change with again day ten of the Ecm overnight run showing perhaps some promise. Other than that very little evidence to suggest  those euro heights are going to do one anytime soon. Unfortunately the clock is most definitely ticking fast on what remains of this pathetic excuse for a winter season.

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

Nothing in the GFS 00Z suggesting a major change in weather-type is imminent:

Day 10:h500slp.png  Day 16:h500slp.png

             h850t850eu.png              h850t850eu.png

If anything, the 'warm' anticyclone looks as dominant as ever??

Given how non-existent winter has been, this year, I sometimes forget that it's still January!:help:

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Look at the Azores high. Just LOOK AT IT

image.thumb.png.dd51a3aa748eb18720f228d204314d21.png

Completely bloated northwards. It's incredible and 'extreme' in its own way. Anyone saying this is normal* winter weather is very wrong (if it was normal the CET wouldn't be running ridiculously high for this month. So, by definition, it isn't normal)

Even at the end of the run...

image.thumb.png.73b8028ff486677dc414da38b2727155.png

...it is STILL on our SW doorstep. Barely moves

ECM has it slightly further out of the way but still an utterly pathetic chart for 'winter'

image.thumb.png.a095096ddd608bd328c87cc18245ee8d.png

This so-called winter could be right up there (or down there depending on your perspective) with 1988-89 and 1997-98. Awful

 

*although, having said that, this could be the new 'normal'

Edited by LRD
  • Like 8
Link to post
Share on other sites

Days eight, nine and ten on the ECM show some potential. The northern hemisphere profile show at least five areas of amplified highs punching into the PV with a super high in Canada. Surly this should help to deliver a pattern change? 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, The PIT said:

You can guarantee in SUMMER we will perfect charts for winter. Faint hopes that a change may come if we get a warming event in the Stratosphere. So something may drop from the models fairly suddenly but I wouldn't hold my breath. So the year without an winter looks set to continue. 

Last May and june  and July is perfect example of Northern blocking for weeks and weeks,which is why it’s so annoying that it feels like someone flips a switch every december  to make it vanish then flips it  again Spring.

 

Still nothing in the models suggesting any change ,febuary looking like a disaster already.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I wouldn't get writing off February just yet folks! At least give it another 14 days. I'm seeing some positivity in the ens

Realistically aren’t we looking towards the end of the month for wintry potential anyway, with anything sooner a bonus?

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Don said:

Realistically aren’t we looking towards the end of the month for wintry potential anyway, with anything sooner a bonus?

Yes Don, if we manage to pull off an SSW, it's gonna be 7-10 days afterwards that we see anything remotely showing in the output! But I'm thinking we most definitely need one at this stage just to salvage something! Without it we are most likely doomed for this season. 

  • Like 7
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes Don, if we manage to pull off an SSW, it's gonna be 7-10 days afterwards that we see anything remotely showing in the output! But I'm thinking we most definitely need one at this stage just to salvage something! Without it we are most likely doomed for this season. 

I quite agree!

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

After what is very likely to come out as the warmest January since at least 2008 and very little wintry weather in most of the country up until now, there remains little in the output to suggest that February is likely to deliver something colder, and after a couple of colder days this week relative to most days this winter so far, if anything the output is suggesting that February may start on a very mild note with temperatures back into double figures.

Edited by North-Easterly Blast
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

After what is very likely to come out as the warmest January since at least 2008 and very little wintry weather in most of the country up until now, there remains little in the output to suggest that February is likely to deliver something colder, and after a couple of colder days this week relative to most days this winter so far, if anything the output is suggesting that February may start on a very mild note with temperatures back into double figures.

But are there bigger picture events contributing to a strat warming and then who knows, perhaps a sudden change to something colder? Not without interest. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:

2 years ago last year and this year same date.

 

AVN_1_2018012800_1.pngAVN_1_2019012800_1.pngimage.thumb.png.11111797318d4bc533ff70eafd518c41.png

Have to say, out of those 3 charts the last two - the 2019 and 2020 ones - look a lot more preferable in terms of colder weather for the UK and have better amplification of High Pressure out West. More so on that middle 2019 chart! And yet, the 2018 charts earlier that year lead to that big monstrous beast from the East in late February. 

Think I do agree that considering we’re still in January, definitely feel the towels regarding February to be hold on to for now. Even though the longer range models might look quite glum. But I suppose the possibility of a Stratospheric warming event that the GFS has been hinting at near the end of its runs could lead to some more interesting outlooks for cold and wintry weather eventually.

Hopefully the period between Monday and Wednesday this week can still throw about some wintry surprises for some. 

The GFS admittedly being the most optimistic with the potency of the 850 hPa temperatures for Tuesday (example at mid day):

9168B0A2-DD50-4F61-818A-173E0DB583F3.thumb.png.119a68a92c42ac00a5b2962fd84b3ded.png

The GEM showing patchier area of -5*C and slightly colder 850 hPa temperatures for the middle part of that day over Southern UK:

B88D9C4C-7D75-4FE1-BD19-33737BF02F24.thumb.png.4974d11b2c99cd77d0796ab32d33a676.png
 

Nevertheless, the ICON and ARPEGE below being a little less optimistic mid day on Tuesday mixing out the pool of -5*C 850 hPa temperatures - many areas of the UK probably experiencing -3 to -4*C 850 hPa temperatures:

C2129B39-FFDC-47A9-9A4E-5725B0C19E36.thumb.png.6d88ed5cbd3d2743cce61d77fb6b7dde.png55B66E57-B687-4877-885D-9A38D7E7F290.thumb.png.547e60450ceb378ab2783bce8205ccbb.png

GFS would likely paint the wintriest scenario for that day. Especially for those on high ground. The model which I would love to be close to the mark regarding its handling of the 850 hPa temperatures on Tuesday. Though there is a chance it’s exaggerating those 850 hpa temperatures, since most other models mix them out more.

That’s not to say that Tuesday morning and/or Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, for example, couldn’t still see some wintriness to showers to lower levels, especially towards Western and Northern UK areas, if the GFS was indeed modelling those 850 hPa temperatures to be a little too cold. I think there is a reasonably good chance both the hills and some lower levels to see a mixture of rain, hail, sleet and snow at times. Seeing wintriness to lower levels being more the case for any showers or longer spells of precipitation that is heavy, as would encourage evaporative cooling. 

I mean it would probably be fair to say the further North and West you are, and the higher your elevation, the better at seeing some some sleet or snow. 

While I wouldn’t rule out anything wintry here at this level in the Midlands, a trip to one of the higher spots, like the Pennines, the Mendips, a Scottish hill, Snowdonia and its high ground or the Carding Mill Valley hills at Church Stretton in Shropshire does seem tempting. Almost makes me wish I was off on Tuesday. May be the best shot at experiencing some snow before February rolls by. ❄️

9D7651FE-E24E-46DC-82F0-845D77EB7CDA.thumb.jpeg.9f413a77e07ceee5bd1b65ee51cc2501.jpeg83332094-93C4-40F3-BF40-CF0B47AF39E1.thumb.jpeg.b0ec8ea6c9dda60a6f7c1727098b185f.jpeg9188D177-A987-41E0-9C08-E0C419AC45E7.thumb.jpeg.f78acec573c37971483255c9fc6aea2f.jpegC4006BA5-BA70-4596-B77F-AA8FAA2AB3BC.thumb.jpeg.8d622e059e77f8f41ee21b6f1deb7188.jpeg
But you might find you may not need to go anywhere at all. ?❄️

(Sorry for the rambly post. When there’s currently been a Winter greatly lacking of snow, getting excited by possible upcoming wintry weather, while it’s looking to be marginal, seems like a really easy thing to do lol).

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Adding the word: eventually
  • Like 9
Link to post
Share on other sites

image.thumb.png.d27b4a5738d25c741c11f8c1d799bec3.png

Phwoar.

Nothing showing up to offer any real excitement just yet at the trop level, but with charts like these then surely it won't be too long before we see the tPV get absolutely shredded.  Really is the last chance saloon now, but I'm optimistic for a decent cold spell cropping up by the end of Feb now.  

  • Like 9
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, weatherguy said:

image.thumb.png.d27b4a5738d25c741c11f8c1d799bec3.png

Phwoar.

Nothing showing up to offer any real excitement just yet at the trop level, but with charts like these then surely it won't be too long before we see the tPV get absolutely shredded.  Really is the last chance saloon now, but I'm optimistic for a decent cold spell cropping up by the end of Feb now.  

The only year in recent times that I can think of that changed to a more favourable pattern for cold in February after limited cold patterns earlier in the winter was 2005, although Feb 2012 saw a cold spell in the first half after not much in the earlier part of the winter.  That said Feb 2018 was also a fairly cold month coming after a fairly mild January 2018, although it likely was less mild overall than this month will turn out to be.  Next month if we got something akin to Feb 2018 I am sure most people would be happy with that, but given the fact of how rare in recent times cold weather in February has been after a poor January and earlier part of winter it does make one think that the chances of salvaging something worthwhile out of February are not very optimistic.  The output will soon have to start becoming more promising if we are to have any chance of February delivering something.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...