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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Aye, changes are afoot; but will they bring any cold & snow to the UK? Perhaps there's a suggestion of some future HLB there, at T+384, but it's not going to be straightforward...?

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Will that LP, east of Scotland, even be there, come 10/2?:oldlaugh:

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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it w

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A very messy picture upto day ten with each GFS run throwing up a different solution regarding shortwave energy in the Atlantic .

Although the Canadian high and deep ne USA low continue to show up the detail ahead of those two features varies considerably .

The upstream pattern does increase in amplitude temporarily so that does give a chance of something colder for the UK but much depends on that shortwave energy in the mid Atlantic .

 

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With all this talk of what may happen down the line, I’d rather think about what may or may not happen next week first then worry about the fi stuff which changes hourly let alone daily 

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1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

Gordon Bennett! Could a limpet HP be positioned in a worse location? Please Mr God, can we not have an SSW as frustratingly useless as last-year's was? I'll be good---I promise!??

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Looks like the balkans and Greece in the firing line again it seems suits me I’ll be in Bulgaria skiing

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Extremely frustrating ECM op with an upstream pattern that could deliver some cold to the UK but the painfully slow clearance of low pressure further se and the trailing shortwave energy a real sticking point .

The upstream troughing at day ten looks primed to send some energy se but you can see the issue if that phases with the shortwave energy sw of the UK before the pattern is sufficiently se .

Phasing is fine  if you’re feeding low heights under a high but the UK has to be in the cold air before that happens with those low heights to the south .

 

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Please get back to discussing the models, whether in the reliable or FI. Stop bickering or posts will disappear.

Edited by Norrance
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Going to rain Knocker??  we hunt for snow and cold in the output. You and others are welcome to comment on what ever you want. The fact is that in the winter it’s what the majority do, look at the low amount of posts through the winter. If there is nothing in the reliable we go to fi for possibilities. We get you like all weather output and I like your observations. Not keen on you calling people thick.

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Edited by That ECM
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Dear oh dear. Some members have got their tight pants on tonight I see

ECM at Day 10 offers some hope. GEM sort of goes with the idea of a high building in (or, at least, towards) the Iceland area too

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GFS also shows that but quickly flattens out

Doubt this will lead to anything and it's the ECM probably over-reacting to something again. Coldies can only hope the ECM is on to something. A 2 week cold spell can still rescue this abomination of a 'winter' and would be a welcome break from eternal October

Edited by LRD
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Very tentative signs in the ext EPS of the higher heights going to the north of the UK and heights over Europe edging lower though still quite high.  On its own, nothing special but in comparison to what we have seen before, a significant improvement. 

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29 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Going to rain Knocker??  we hunt for snow and cold in the output. You and others are welcome to comment on what ever you want. The fact is that in the winter it’s what the majority do, look at the low amount of posts through the winter. If there is nothing in the reliable we go to fi for possibilities. We get you like all weather output and I like your observations. Not keen on you calling people thick.

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6DB859A8-409E-4972-9115-75DE7605FB59.png

 

 

Some people up north might see some snow from the charts you posted above but likely amounting to very little all the same.

Edited by Norrance
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1 minute ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Looking at the GEM ensembles and some eye catchers which presumably are linked to stratospheric events (you dont get GEM strat charts on meteociel) also these haven't been showing anything of interest from a cold / wintry POV for quite a while but the last few runs paired with other models showing interesting developments in the strat as myself and a few others have posted about in the strat thread begins to raise an eyebrow.. gensnh-9-1-360.thumb.png.acf6aafb6aa5c8b854c970339872c85c.png 

gensnh-10-1-384.thumb.png.4026144e19e57251149f39833e1fa55d.pnggensnh-15-1-360.thumb.png.687d48a5991305be5fcd78f28e63720f.png  there are others that show signs of vortex disruption but those the main ones from a UK perspective though of course exact details to be taken with a pinch of salt at that range.

A point to note on that, the GEM ensembles had the first signals of any model of the commotion in the strat signalling wind reversals at 60N 10mb, I posted them here a few days ago.  Trendsetter !!

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About the MJO going neutral possibly when an SSW happens, would that be a good thing? You would think you want as few things as possible interfering in any way with an SSW, especially when the two layers of the atmosphere are so well-connected.

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1 minute ago, Catacol said:

Given collapse of the MJO signal and strength of the sub tropical high belt at present this is the only raft setting sail from the 2019/20 winter shipwreck....

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I just wonder, will a SSW be enough taking into account the MJO and subtropical high belt?

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Just now, Catacol said:

Yes. Downwelling split vortex impacts would create a -AO and expand the tropospheric vortex, shunting the Azores/Euro high away. Baby steps, early days...

Thanks.  As always, a case of waiting to see how things develop.  Good to see some interest in the outlook, after what seems an eternity!

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