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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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20 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

I no it’s pointless even commenting on the far reaches of fi but the whole lot is too Far East on these latest gfs charts for my liking so even if it did come off (which it won’t) it would still probably be pretty crap for the uk unless it was all that bit further west come the time.

id say next week would be better looking at as it’s got much more chances of giving a few nice surprises that outer reaches of the gfs pup special 

Can;t see it other than a cm of slush in one or 2 places.

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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it w

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10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Can;t see it other than a cm of slush in one or 2 places.

It's better than the non slush that we have had so far,i would settle for some white stuff falling out of the sky,in fact I think almost anywhere in the UK might see something white falling out of the sky next week Feb

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blimey! i am blinded by all that pink snow?

could be a good PM shot this and could be the starter to the main course as we go into February. 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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50 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Problem I see is that snowfall will probably be limited to the higher ground, partly thanks to warmer than average SSTS that are no doubt around. If the - 8 hpa was forecast to hit, more would be interested but too me, snowfall looks very limited to lower levels for the most part. 

Of course as ever the details are subject to change so any kink or trough that develops which may help to bring snowfall down to lower levels may help to increase any excitement in an otherwise underwhelming output. 

I think the SST values to the NW are colder than average, and the source of air is coming from a cold Pole. 

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9 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

It's better than the non slush that we have had so far,i would settle for some white stuff falling out of the sky,in fact I think almost anywhere in the UK might see something white falling out of the sky next week Feb

 

blimey! i am blinded by all that pink snow?

could be a good PM shot this and could be the starter to the main course as we go into February. 

Those GFS snow xharts are always overdone, i will eat my hat if that is all snow.

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A big change in output from various models from showing potentially a significant storm system on Monday night to now a small disturbance bringing an enhancement of showers across England and Wales on Monday night into Tuesday it shows quite well one or two details can change the whole scenario, it looks as though the low in question stays in the Atlantic with only a small segment of energy from this moving into southern UK or France during Monday night bringing more organised showery rain with a small chance of hill snow eastwards here into Tuesday morning which I mentioned yesterday too. 

GFS.. 

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The remnants of that low likely to merge with further low pressure systems at the end of next week. 

Upto Wednesday looking very showery with the lows to the north of the UK greatly influencing our weather with most showers for Western and northern areas where some snow is possible especially on high ground, further disturbances may form in the northwesterly flow to bring more organised rain sleet and snow further south too but that will be something to look at closer to the time.

1592214293_EUROPE_PRMSL_96(2).thumb.jpg.353f861461ef0b2fd1221ced0b37cd78.jpg

It looks likely that things will become milder by the latter part of next week with more widespread wet and windy weather this likely to continue to day 10. 

1819602970_EUROPE_PRMSL_126(3).thumb.jpg.a124a086ec0ab65325b888e56a7e7aab.jpg

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Edited by jordan smith
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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Those GFS snow xharts are always overdone, i will eat my hat if that is all snow.

Yes i think they are overdone a bit but....

Untitled.thumb.png.a623809ffbd4316bb9885f13fa9639e2.png

the 850's would be conjunctive to snowfall i would of thought.

this is my local.

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Pre-D10 nothing much to add. Post-D10, the height rise around the UK looks likely:

anim_lof9.gif

Mean anomaly is quite clear with the op and control leading the way with stronger heights. Usually when GFS spots a pattern like this it overdoes the height-rise north, and this run more in keeping with a UK high not high-lat. As it builds, relatively mild, chances it will become a cooler high at the end of FI. My region:

graphe6_1000_303_155___.thumb.png.e379457ba0600a52a1648e6d05ab23ff.png

Mean 2m at the end closer to average. ECM D9-10 height rise in the south, but ECM at that range not trustworthy with just the op as a guide. GEM at D10 building heights close to the UK. So a period of HP for early to mid-Feb likely.

The GFS MJO looks low amplitude for the next two weeks, but signal back through 2-3 at the end:

1402749611_ensplume_full(2).thumb.gif.bcfa5b3f822e4c5a582307651b368cf0.gif

No help here for a late winter burst as that looks just background noise.

The individual GEFS in FI still showing all sorts, good and bad, so no solid conclusion as to how that height rise will interact in our region with the other variables. Until a good cluster grouping, it is a case that a height rise is the main probability, but confidence remains not high as to D12+. Let us see if anything develops in the strat, as the strong coupling may mean a quick response, and a flip in the current pattern.

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Looks like a re rinse again high pressure building in around 10 days over or around UK after a mild unsettled 

period to end a very mild January.I suppose the question is that many or most places may not see snow this

winter my take is that we most definitely will,perhaps late Feb or March.

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8 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

I've lost all focus on the short term, I desperately need a snow fix... Almost 2 years for the love of god!! P6 from the 18z is a complete snow making machine..... Make it so... ?

Edit... Me and si thinking alike.. Lol

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You’ll probably carry on not seeing it if you’re just poking around in FI 

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Well next week continues to become a more disappointing outlook.  Aside from ridiculous snow charts from GFS (which are bin fodder at best) the temps are looking like hitting double figures and more of our usual dross will be the order of the day.
 

 

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Since it’s feeling a bit low in here this morning (which can understand), been going around picking cherries off the tree. I came across a particularly juicy one from the NAVGEM this morning ?

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Around next weekend, it seems to be showing High Pressure to the North-East of the UK over Scandinavia and Russia to be dominant. A bit more further West, and the UK would be under an Easterly to North-Easterly flow. It’s not definite that Low in the Atlantic at 180 hours would quite slide and disrupt properly against that block. Likely that the 00Z NAVGEM is over-powering heights in that area and the chart being quite far away to wonder too much about. Fun to look at, though

As one or two others say, the best chance of anything wintry in the closer range does seem to be Tuesday next week. 00Z GFS showing a strip of -5*C to -7*C (perhaps the odd -8*C) 850 hPa temperatures affecting numerous areas of the UK during that day. 
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A pretty chilly Westerly flow, which could bring a wintry mix of showers, especially the further West and North you are in the UK. Sometimes you have to be weary of how cold the GFS shows the 850 hPa temperatures, as they can be over done a bit at times. Could provide some interesting  weather nonetheless.

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Correcting mistakes
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Ignoring (for now!) the possible effects from likely upcoming changes in the strat, another unexciting GFS 00Z run comes to another unexciting end:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

I guess the operational run is continuing to flip-flop between the warm and cold ends of the ensemble??

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And, back in the nearer term, a chance that a few of us, down here in the Snowless Zone might actually see a flake or two, come Tuesday!:clapping::yahoo:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

There be troughs in them thar westerlies!:oldgood:

Edited by General Cluster
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Quite a complicated picture in the medium term .

Although two aspects look likely to verify . The Canadian high which edges east into the nw Atlantic and the deepish low developing further upstream and heading towards the ne USA.

The problem is highlighted by today’s ECM op and some GFS runs . As the upstream flow develops more amplitude we see the jet dig se to the west of the UK and phasing issues are apparent with that shortwave energy in the mid Atlantic .

The limpet Euro high can’t escape nw if it’s blocked in by that shortwave energy . Without that you normally find the Euro high edging west and nw as the upstream flow amplifies meeting up with the amplified Canadian high which is pushing east .

The ECM doesn’t allow the limpet Euro high an escape route so the UK ends up on the wrong side of the jet at day ten.

There is a chance of some colder conditions if that shortwave energy in the Atlantic acts more favourably because we are likely to see at least a window of amplification upstream .

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Aye, changes are afoot; but will they bring any cold & snow to the UK? Perhaps there's a suggestion of some future HLB there, at T+384, but it's not going to be straightforward...?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Will that LP, east of Scotland, even be there, come 10/2?:oldlaugh:

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A very messy picture upto day ten with each GFS run throwing up a different solution regarding shortwave energy in the Atlantic .

Although the Canadian high and deep ne USA low continue to show up the detail ahead of those two features varies considerably .

The upstream pattern does increase in amplitude temporarily so that does give a chance of something colder for the UK but much depends on that shortwave energy in the mid Atlantic .

 

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With all this talk of what may happen down the line, I’d rather think about what may or may not happen next week first then worry about the fi stuff which changes hourly let alone daily 

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