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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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I must admit I haven't bothered looking for a few days but this is quite the change.

Obviously not withstanding the massive failing of GEFS back in December in this respect, hopefully it is more on the ball this time around? We shall see. If so back end of Feb / early March may be our best bet for something a bit more wintery

u_60N_10hpa_gefs.thumb.png.d01e62f16f715e82d8266ec704f66c43.png

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15 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Too early to be greasing the skis just yet, I think...as yet another UK HP looks set to keep both the cold and the warmth elsewhere?😱

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

 Shouldn't comment on long range output but that's a colder high than current one with more continental influence. The current high started off in a good position for clear conditions but alas has settled into a very poor position in this respect. Grey gloom to add to the gloomy January feeling.. 

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6 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

I must admit I haven't bothered looking for a few days but this is quite the change.

Obviously not withstanding the massive failing of GEFS back in December in this respect, hopefully it is more on the ball this time around? We shall see. If so back end of Feb / early March may be our best bet for something a bit more wintery

u_60N_10hpa_gefs.thumb.png.d01e62f16f715e82d8266ec704f66c43.png

Been thinking back to 1995 recently and how things turned tail end Feb into March after a mostly mild Atlantic driven winter bar the odd cold snap.. early March 95 brought lots of polar air and snow for some. Not saying this will happen but there are many instances in more recent years when winter has arrived as it is ending after predominantly wet mild season.. some of the most potent cold of the year has happened then 2005, 2006, 2013, 2018...

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Regarding those comments from damianslaw, must say do remember 2005 well. That 2004/05 Winter felt under-whelming overall (certainly for this area). But that mid to later part of February 2005 did bring a sudden transformation to some much colder, wintry, conditions with snow on the attack from the North and East! The below charts from the GFS archive illustrates this quite well:

628850C3-3DC6-4A86-822B-427E543C1067.thumb.png.78896e86a4423c5ea1f31c844cb6f143.png4E581F13-D572-4B9D-8B96-5FF8DBBC2CF7.thumb.png.244c800bdc33128ff3c4e703e11e43e9.png549966C9-60F2-43E5-AFE5-2AE9CE990FDB.thumb.png.34a14c5affcb5c02e59f761aab9d1c8f.png5C810EEC-F61A-4D64-B9E4-0EA808185F32.thumb.png.f6a8884b0bbb017b64e5877066920ffd.pngF2D90604-B69A-4A69-8CA3-C9A02E4262D2.thumb.png.ca3802542074031556f2a3bd5b68589a.png4168ECE3-9591-4AD4-8AB6-D8422695D119.thumb.png.92f698044e6418f50a1d444f7c460587.pngE4E3FD4C-B07C-4CFE-B460-DA1CCEFD74F1.thumb.png.0fde478ddbd772d2ac0192b93edef7e4.png5A2D0317-C89D-4B4A-9C36-86FE36FF22A7.thumb.png.82cded01d979e631f4e578b327294a6e.png72B94905-3D61-493A-9EFB-712B0E5BAB30.thumb.png.ce183498acf903e4de145afc159612be.png4E14AF3A-2151-428C-A534-341F7BECAFFA.thumb.png.3f422171bffd55da8cc08ab5ef953dc2.png9AE49197-CA64-4D84-B149-436CE468600E.thumb.png.56f36e067f792a306d6c7bea36747ed7.png1623EB4D-A3BB-4287-92CD-268EF989BD87.thumb.png.c88133ede67b2f7c0de202637166c461.png
This setup didn’t really bring more than around a cm or two of the sparkly, white, stuff. However, synoptically, the Northern blocking was pretty impressive, and the Easterly/North-Easterlies lasted a fair while. 

It may be possible that should the likes of the GFS continue to model some kind of UK High within the next 2 weeks and there can be room for it to shift further North (a weakening Vortex to help with this), then repeats like late February 2005, March 2013 etc isn’t totally infeasible. Albeit the latter in particular being a hard feat to achieve. Plus, would need other models to start showing signs for a UK High to develop, or maybe just having some kind of ridging developing in the mid-Atlantic. As a starting point anyway. 

I’m sure there would unlikely to be anything better for the cold and snow weather fans than to see the European High get flushed away down Netweather’s large loo. 🚽 If not, a good ol’ kick up towards the North of the UK would do nicely for that fiendish High!

For the cold weather, that light at the end of the tunnel is certainly needed.💡Perhaps the current roll out of the 12Z ECMWF could slip in a cold surprise towards the end. Although, even next week, while nothing too impressive, looks to be chilly for a time with models showing a Westerly to North-Westerly airstream bringing a possible wintry mix of weather at times. Most especially, but not necessarily exclusively, for Northern and Western high ground.

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40 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Any chance ECM can throw out something really cold at the end of its run.I can’t remember a winter with a lack of any eye candy in FL,,nothing but mild operationals for months.

And it’s utterly dire again.Nearly time to throw the towel in😞

...any potential (used loosely) is after D10, so not expecting a miracle from ECM. The GEFS are off on one ATM so unconvinced by anything post-D12 again and will await till more refined output. 

Maybe something in FI, maybe not, we shall see...

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7 minutes ago, IDO said:

...any potential (used loosely) is after D10, so not expecting a miracle from ECM. The GEFS are off on one ATM so unconvinced by anything post-D12 again and will await till more refined output. 

Maybe something in FI, maybe not, we shall see...

gens_panel_ndi0.png They sure are, which could be good and is certainly better than 20 options of rubbish 😩😄

Edited by That ECM

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Yep the 2nd half of the ECM run was nothing to write home about, the first half slightlly more interesting with half hearted height rises to our NE, again though no influence on our weather mind but the signal for those height rises are there. 

All that said, very little ridging in the Atlantic so at this stage I'll be surprised if any heights to our NE will affect our weather unfortunately. 

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Evening all 🙂

I've long been of the view mid-February and later are when the synoptic charts will become more interesting so no surprise that isn't reflected within the current reliable or even semi-reliable.

I'm watching strat developments with the thought late February could be interesting but it's all speculation.

In the immediate an unsettled and chillier week last week gives way to a more anticyclonic spell into February as the trough digs down to the Azores and throws the HP ridge in front of it over western Europe from Iberia to the southern British Isles. 

The 240s from the 12Z output across the models all tell a very similar tale.

The interest from the extended GFS OP is the LP sets up down near the Azores which pushes the anticyclonic cell up over the British Isles - the 850s are nothing unusual but I do wonder if we could see a fair amount of fog and frost IF we get a clearer circulation.

Control ends on quite a tantalising note with a much quieter Atlantic and perhaps a ridge stretching south from a large HP in the high Arctic.

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2 hours ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Regarding those comments from damianslaw, must say do remember 2005 well. That 2004/05 Winter felt under-whelming overall (certainly for this area). But that mid to later part of February 2005 did bring a sudden transformation to some much colder, wintry, conditions with snow on the attack from the North and East! The below charts from the GFS archive illustrates this quite well:

628850C3-3DC6-4A86-822B-427E543C1067.thumb.png.78896e86a4423c5ea1f31c844cb6f143.png4E581F13-D572-4B9D-8B96-5FF8DBBC2CF7.thumb.png.244c800bdc33128ff3c4e703e11e43e9.png549966C9-60F2-43E5-AFE5-2AE9CE990FDB.thumb.png.34a14c5affcb5c02e59f761aab9d1c8f.png5C810EEC-F61A-4D64-B9E4-0EA808185F32.thumb.png.f6a8884b0bbb017b64e5877066920ffd.pngF2D90604-B69A-4A69-8CA3-C9A02E4262D2.thumb.png.ca3802542074031556f2a3bd5b68589a.png4168ECE3-9591-4AD4-8AB6-D8422695D119.thumb.png.92f698044e6418f50a1d444f7c460587.pngE4E3FD4C-B07C-4CFE-B460-DA1CCEFD74F1.thumb.png.0fde478ddbd772d2ac0192b93edef7e4.png5A2D0317-C89D-4B4A-9C36-86FE36FF22A7.thumb.png.82cded01d979e631f4e578b327294a6e.png72B94905-3D61-493A-9EFB-712B0E5BAB30.thumb.png.ce183498acf903e4de145afc159612be.png4E14AF3A-2151-428C-A534-341F7BECAFFA.thumb.png.3f422171bffd55da8cc08ab5ef953dc2.png9AE49197-CA64-4D84-B149-436CE468600E.thumb.png.56f36e067f792a306d6c7bea36747ed7.png1623EB4D-A3BB-4287-92CD-268EF989BD87.thumb.png.c88133ede67b2f7c0de202637166c461.png
This setup didn’t really bring more than around a cm or two of the sparkly, white, stuff. However, synoptically, the Northern blocking was pretty impressive, and the Easterly/North-Easterlies lasted a fair while. 

It may be possible that should the likes of the GFS continue to model some kind of UK High within the next 2 weeks and there can be room for it to shift further North (a weakening Vortex to help with this), then repeats like late February 2005, March 2013 etc isn’t totally infeasible. Albeit the latter in particular being a hard feat to achieve. Plus, would need other models to start showing signs for a UK High to develop, or maybe just having some kind of ridging developing in the mid-Atlantic. As a starting point anyway. 

I’m sure there would unlikely to be anything better for the cold and snow weather fans than to see the European High get flushed away down Netweather’s large loo. 🚽 If not, a good ol’ kick up towards the North of the UK would do nicely for that fiendish High!

For the cold weather, that light at the end of the tunnel is certainly needed.💡Perhaps the current roll out of the 12Z ECMWF could slip in a cold surprise towards the end. Although, even next week, while nothing too impressive, looks to be chilly for a time with models showing a Westerly to North-Westerly airstream bringing a possible wintry mix of weather at times. Most especially, but not necessarily exclusively, for Northern and Western high ground.

Wasn't this spell actually record breaking for bringing the longest continuous period for snow falling somewhere in the UK each day (albeit nothing more than flurries for most)

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12 minutes ago, Alexis said:

Wasn't this spell actually record breaking for bringing the longest continuous period for snow falling somewhere in the UK each day (albeit nothing more than flurries for most)

Yes I think it was over two weeks of snow falling, I was living in Sussex then and although it snowed on many days  the temps weren’t great for settling on low ground although the Downs looked great.

 

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25 minutes ago, Alexis said:

Wasn't this spell actually record breaking for bringing the longest continuous period for snow falling somewhere in the UK each day (albeit nothing more than flurries for most)

Feb 1947 had snow falling somewhere in the UK on every day so not a record. Anyway back to the models please.

Ta.

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Wow, take a look at the ECM 240, the 1025mb isobar around the Mediterranean High stretches from the Channel Coast at Normandy to the deep Sahara, I reckon that's over 2000miles! That is one Monster Bartlett that isn't going anywhere.

You can also bet that's one ECM 10 day chart that is sure to verify.

Andy

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14 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

There appears to be an increasing tendency in readers posts, to be ignoring what is happening in the here and now, and instead looking at what might happen in 10 days time, which always perplexes me.. sign of the time I think.. no-one seems to be 'in the present'...

With this in mind, we do have a change on the cards from Sunday, for the north some what I would call proper cold air for 2-3 days about to move in, sub 528 dam air, thicknesses right side of marginal for snow I think down to quite low levels under any trough features which are being programmed - good to look at the FAX charts in these situations. Indeed first time this season I've bothered to look at them...

Alas longer term its a shortlived polar maritime airstream before the omi-present azores high ridges back into the UK.

Feels good to be able to mention the snow word..

Those away from the north and north west, I sense will not be interested in the upcoming spell.. but its good to see a change in airstreams from the perpetual tropical maritime, or anticyclonic gloom..

We saw similiar synoptics mid December, and they produced low level snow here.. 2 inches.

You would be correct in your theory that those of us in the south aren't interested since historically speaking short-lived northerlies or North westerlies seldom produce anything for us snow starved dwellers as by the time they get going, the shows all over before its even begun. So, effectively, nothing changes from what falls from the skies and we are merely waiting for the event to finish so that we can start the hunt for snow, cold, proper winter, whatever you want to call it again. The next GFS run will be awaited eagerly by some. 

Edited by Snowfish2

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5 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Wow, take a look at the ECM 240, the 1025mb isobar around the Mediterranean High stretches from the Channel Coast at Normandy to the deep Sahara, I reckon that's over 2000miles! That is one Monster Bartlett that isn't going anywhere.

You can also bet that's one ECM 10 day chart that is sure to verify.

Andy

As said concentrate on the shorter term, promising for some wintry fayre around here at least.. 

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spacer.pngGFS 18z @ t84 ( decent uppers that could deliver)

spacer.pngGFS 18z @ t84

As damianslaw correctly points out , there is plenty to be interested about in terms of snow potential Mon 27th - Wed 29th

( especially for Ireland , Scotland , Wales and Northern England with a bit of altitude.

spacer.pngt 84

spacer.pngt 96

Edited by Jeremy Shockey

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watching this end of GFS closely - could be a retrograde block come 372 - and you know i will post the chart if it does!

Edited by Mapantz
removed hidden quote

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yep! - Here she comes.

image.thumb.png.40216c3af3e67e697602df8a4bbce3ed.png

Yer I see you . 👍

7AED4606-60D5-48B5-9F08-58AF1E3B3CB1.png

6CBA96B9-0BF6-4CF6-9893-04A215F2358F.png

Edited by ICE COLD

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yep! - Here she comes.

image.thumb.png.40216c3af3e67e697602df8a4bbce3ed.png

Ship ahoy... Tha she blows.. 😉 Vortex on the move big time Feb. 

And its moving out of Greenland with a push of heights nudging to the South. 

gfsnh-0-342.png

Edited by Mattwolves

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1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Ship ahoy... Tha she blows.. 😉 Vortex on the move big time Feb. 

gfsnh-0-342.png

Yes - a bit too far East but -8c into Scotland with -14c not too far away and sub -20c poised over Iceland.

image.thumb.png.e0fdec173627ceb04e9bd08305a0a5d4.png

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

WOnder if this is a QTR - anyhow - if we could get to here we would be staring down the barrel of a severely cold late winter / Early spring.

image.thumb.png.57ca0de3de2024d5133d379dc103c58f.png

 

 

Few more frames and we'd be looking at a split too. 

 

Screenshot_20200124_231022_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.25b06674fa4981450ce682a97c561e11.jpg

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1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

There appears to be an increasing tendency in readers posts, to be ignoring what is happening in the here and now, and instead looking at what might happen in 10 days time, which always perplexes me.. sign of the time I think.. no-one seems to be 'in the present'...

With this in mind, we do have a change on the cards from Sunday, for the north some what I would call proper cold air for 2-3 days about to move in, sub 528 dam air, thicknesses right side of marginal for snow I think down to quite low levels under any trough features which are being programmed - good to look at the FAX charts in these situations. Indeed first time this season I've bothered to look at them...

Alas longer term its a shortlived polar maritime airstream before the omi-present azores high ridges back into the UK.

Feels good to be able to mention the snow word..

Those away from the north and north west, I sense will not be interested in the upcoming spell.. but its good to see a change in airstreams from the perpetual tropical maritime, or anticyclonic gloom..

We saw similiar synoptics mid December, and they produced low level snow here.. 2 inches.

Problem I see is that snowfall will probably be limited to the higher ground, partly thanks to warmer than average SSTS that are no doubt around. If the - 8 hpa was forecast to hit, more would be interested but too me, snowfall looks very limited to lower levels for the most part. 

Of course as ever the details are subject to change so any kink or trough that develops which may help to bring snowfall down to lower levels may help to increase any excitement in an otherwise underwhelming output. 

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