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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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1 hour ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Latest CFS is dreadful as it resembles a February 2014 repeat: Storm after storm after storm...... That's not good 🙈💨💨💨💨💨💨💨💨

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I'd take those charts anyday, at least the HP is flattened so cold air flows in after the storms move east. Much better than the GFS and ecmwf outlook  - mild drizzly and windy for us in Scotland. 

gfs-0-222.png

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2 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

I'd take those charts anyday, at least the HP is flattened so cold air flows in after the storms move east. Much better than the GFS and ecmwf outlook  - mild drizzly and windy for us in Scotland. 

gfs-0-222.png

Agreed 100%! It would allow for some interesting active weather at least.

Next week looks a bit cooler than it did a few days ago as the jet manages to push the high pressure further south for a time. Only a temporary thing but nice to see.

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1 hour ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Latest CFS is dreadful as it resembles a February 2014 repeat: Storm after storm after storm...... That's not good 🙈💨💨💨💨💨💨💨💨

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If it came to it I personally would much prefer this than a crap high pressure sat over us for days with still foggy nothingness 

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@Tim Bland keeping the dream alive 😄 still give it little to no chance but gfs is sticking with earlier output

11C276A4-C88E-4540-856D-7C91C238FB9E.png

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Maybe, once next week's sleet & cold rain is out of the way, Day 10 is growing its 'summertime plumage'?🦚

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Who knows?😱

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ECM clusters - seem to be pushing the high a bit further north again as we get towards mid-Feb but another UK high would be more likely than a northern block.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020012400_360.

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33 minutes ago, That ECM said:

@Tim Bland keeping the dream alive 😄 still give it little to no chance but gfs is sticking with earlier output

11C276A4-C88E-4540-856D-7C91C238FB9E.png

Desperate times isn’t it 🤣 All we want is a friging sleet shower in mid winter 🤣

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Maybe something is a-brewing...

But these two don't seem to tally up that well...still looks as robust as it has done all winter there.

image.thumb.png.52d49569981c8d643dbbc890137e3cbc.pngimage.thumb.png.f98cb4311427769626aa402847fc769f.png
 

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14 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Desperate times isn’t it 🤣 All we want is a friging sleet shower in mid winter 🤣

Looking at the snow charts, looks like the usual favoured areas:

anim_pzq8.gif

Nothing south of Manchester settling on this run.

Good consistency for heights building in the UK arena after D10, well into FI:

anim_qba7.gif

The tPV still modelled as hardcore so not sure any ridging above mid-lat has a great chance ATM? With a chunk of tPV over Greenland from D8 the natural route for the HP westerly's cells is to ridge E/NE from the Atlantic which is not that helpful. All JFF and time for change.

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I think you can have all the analogues you want, but nothing's closer to reality than what you start with...And springtime, this year, looks like starting with a lot of warm air.:unsure2:🤔

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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But that’s a February chart, at least 3 weeks until the start of spring... ???

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23 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

But that’s a February chart, at least 3 weeks until the start of spring... ???

At the end of December people were saying there is still 9 weeks of winter left, roll on a month, and we are heading for one of the mildest January's ever! The models say what they say and at present they suggest mild rather than cold as a whole, so does not matter how long is left if the NH pattern is cycling us through a long-term mild synoptic!

The mean has a bit of a way before it mimics the op, so zonal is still possible. Personally some early warmth and settled conditions rather than average and wet is my preference as chasing rainbows is wearing thin:

T300 mean>>>gensnh-21-1-300.thumb.png.bf00f63a8ebf45e695fc7c776b7748ac.png

Edited by IDO

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3 hours ago, General Cluster said:

I think you can have all the analogues you want, but nothing's closer to reality than what you start with...And springtime, this year, looks like starting with a lot of warm air.:unsure2:🤔

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

God that looks desperate to a man going on a skiing holiday to Austria who would just like to see it snowing once this winter!

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4 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Maybe something is a-brewing...

But these two don't seem to tally up that well...still looks as robust as it has done all winter there.

image.thumb.png.52d49569981c8d643dbbc890137e3cbc.pngimage.thumb.png.f98cb4311427769626aa402847fc769f.png
 

The 6z GFS continues the trend of the big drop in the zonal winds

u10serie.thumb.png.bde81e0e662b3ae0c5902fcc91cbbea3.png

Also your first image and the zonal wind chart are from different runs. This chart is the one that goes with the first image

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4 hours ago, General Cluster said:

Maybe, once next week's sleet & cold rain is out of the way, Day 10 is growing its 'summertime plumage'?🦚

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Who knows?😱

Could be in for the UK's warmest year on the CET record since we are getting off to such a warm start already. We almost got the 25C Isotherm at 850hpa last summer. Maybe this year we could get close to the 30C Isotherm reaching us

Edited by SqueakheartLW

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1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Could be in for the UK's warmest year on the CET record since we are getting off to such a warm start already. We almost got the 25C Isotherm at 850hpa last summer. Maybe this year we could get close to the 30C Isotherm reaching us

The 25C upper air temp did reach the UK during June(I think) but surface winds came off the North Sea so the temperatures were not as hot as they would of been if the air came off the continent. 

Back to the hear and now, some hints height rises will try and buckle the jet towards Russia thanks to the weak heights leaving the Arctic but not affecting our weather as of yet. Some chilly air is forecast but nothing substantial that there be much of a snow risk away from the higher ground although hopefully for some areas, it will mean brighter weather.

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The PV finally disrupts and starts moving out of Greenland on the GFS 12 hrs run but this happens after T240hrs so when the resolution drops .

Still nice to see ! Earlier that shortwave energy in the mid Atlantic is a total pain which boxes in the limpet Euro high and delays its move nw .

 

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2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The PV finally disrupts and starts moving out of Greenland on the GFS 12 hrs run but this happens after T240hrs so when the resolution drops .

Still nice to see ! Earlier that shortwave energy in the mid Atlantic is a total pain which boxes in the limpet Euro high and delays its move nw .

 

It's brewing up nicely, Nick 😁

I thought the UKMO 12h looked quite good later on.. What's your take on it? 

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6 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

A nice evening for sitting in the beer garden?🍻

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Capture.thumb.PNG.6aed59a883d433d86d819331babbc139.PNGCapture2.thumb.PNG.5951d8d6748c8cbeb0d7b50bd3b8d48f.PNGCapture3.thumb.PNG.c05ab15a93d7aea5bf6da802fac45236.PNG

Cloudy with 12°C 😂 might want a jumper on!

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GFS 12Z continuing the theme of more in the way of high pressure into February after a trashy first few days. Yes please - AS LONG AS IT'S SUNNY! None of the current gloom...

h850t850eu.png

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12 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

It's brewing up nicely, Nick 😁

I thought the UKMO 12h looked quite good later on.. What's your take on it? 

It looks pretty similar upstream to the GFS .

The drama really starts a bit later . You can see that amplified wave working east on the GFS , this then down stream helps to amplify the Canadian high and that moves east .

The issue is that shortwave energy in the mid Atlantic . If that doesn’t split allowing the limpet high an escape route nw then we end up on the wrong side of the jet.

If we see a quicker clearance of that shortwave energy then that would really help .

Interestingly the pattern in the eastern USA with colder conditions was what NCEP suggested in their February outlook and they thought the MJO would be playing a role in that but we’ve had conflicting views on how much impact it would have .

Some later MJO updates suggested it would have a limited impact but the GFS looks like some lagged effects of that .

Edited by nick sussex

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6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It looks pretty similar upstream to the GFS .

The drama really starts a bit later . You can see that amplified wave working east on the GFS , this then down stream helps to amplify the Canadian high and that moves east .

The issue is that shortwave energy in the mid Atlantic . If that doesn’t split allowing the limpet high an escape route nw then we end up on the wrong side of the jet.

If we see a quicker clearance of that shortwave energy then that would really help .

Interestingly the pattern in the eastern USA with colder conditions was what NCEP suggested in their February outlook and they thought the MJO would be playing a role in that but we’ve had conflicting views on how much impact it would have .

 

Thanks Nick 👍

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Too early to be greasing the skis just yet, I think...as yet another UK HP looks set to keep both the cold and the warmth elsewhere?😱

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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