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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Sorry,too late to the party but there is some interest in the latter stages of the 18z gefs ens,all JFF as we know

    but firstly the control run has a nice northerly

    gensnh-0-1-348.thumb.png.24133f1e0c7b291b8a31adececed007b.png

    P 9 and 16

    anim_xex0.thumb.gif.0a9d599a43497e4c13b3f200af41c0ae.gifanim_wbz1.thumb.gif.8648d052c64f206cbef67aa00d8f6022.gif

    the ens still look underwhelming though but at least there is some eye candy starting to show

    graphe3_1000_264_29___.thumb.png.d22f1450eb38f9be7d08b70349324cfd.png

    what have we done to deserve this mild dross of a winter,surely it cannot get any worse,i think i will take up painting and watching it dry,jeeeeeeeeze!!!!

    the IOD (Indian Ocean Disease) has done the damage so far lol.

     

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    New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

    Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

    COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it w

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    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley

    My thoughts tonight are we have been in a waiting game for winter to fully start. Ecm looks very interesting to me day 8/9/10 it's got a look about it that's strange. But my feeling is the deep cold in the North West is primed. I really think this winter will end very cold and snowy. From early Feb onwards is my prediction. Regards to next week's cool North westerly it's just a cool down to the main event. You heard it here first. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    If only in Summer:

    JFF>>> anim_syb3.gif anim_wlg1.gif

    At this range, not that it matters, but deja vu again, repeating pattern if it verifies. Certainly heights building in UK sector is the de facto current thinking for early Feb and like Jan maybe pushing that CET into +3c above mean? This run the high is stopped from pushing north due to pressure on the Pacific side. All subject to change at this range as to high placement but based on this winter's story, the above seems a good possibility.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Ecm day 10 ? I would take that. Gfs panel in fi have some interesting options. 

    48B26C47-CC98-4E55-98D8-2D9EEE256D34.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester
    6 hours ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

    My thoughts tonight are we have been in a waiting game for winter to fully start. Ecm looks very interesting to me day 8/9/10 it's got a look about it that's strange. But my feeling is the deep cold in the North West is primed. I really think this winter will end very cold and snowy. From early Feb onwards is my prediction. Regards to next week's cool North westerly it's just a cool down to the main event. You heard it here first. 

    I think you are dreaming on the evidence we are seeing this morning. Ongoing dreadful output.

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    Posted
  • Location: Central Beds
  • Location: Central Beds
    26 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

    I think you are dreaming on the evidence we are seeing this morning. Ongoing dreadful output.

    We don’t have any evidence yet, just some model output for period of time that’s still beyond any reliable timescale.  

     

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    27 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    GFS is snowy next Tuesday night

    114-779UK.GIF?24-0

    but I've seen the ECM charts and it's snow for the north and west only, and mostly over high ground.

    It even has some accumulations across the far south. Looks very marginal though 

    E8F1A64D-FC52-407B-9F13-195C016D7859.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    10 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    Even a flake of snow falling out of the sky, would be nice, as the output looks utterly dire again in the longer term. 

    Couldn't agree any more.  For us in the south its rarer than.... Rarer than... Can't think of anything rarer.... ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    22 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    It even has some accumulations across the far south. Looks very marginal though 

    E8F1A64D-FC52-407B-9F13-195C016D7859.gif

    Surprised steve murr aint commented on that!!6cms is equivalent to 100 right now with the way this winter has gone?

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    1 minute ago, shaky said:

    Surprised steve murr aint commented on that!!6cms is equivalent to 100 right now with the way this winter has gone?

    Because it’s going to be about 8 degrees with a strong west to south westerly breeze. ? little to no chance?

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    1 minute ago, That ECM said:

    Because it’s going to be about 8 degrees with a strong west to south westerly breeze. ? little to no chance?

    Absolutely spot on ecm!!and probably even warmer than that lol!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Central Beds
  • Location: Central Beds
    30 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    It even has some accumulations across the far south. Looks very marginal though 

    E8F1A64D-FC52-407B-9F13-195C016D7859.gif

    Temps are forecast to be close to double figures early next week.  Accumulation of anything but rain is not likely happen.  

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    10 minutes ago, Beanz said:

    Temps are forecast to be close to double figures early next week.  Accumulation of anything but rain is not likely happen.  

    Yes, on some models they are. On the latest GFS run (which is all I was commenting on) the temps are around freezing at times including when the snow fall accumulation chart I posted is referring to. Anyone expecting snow men and days off work are going to be disappointed but there’s a  fair chance of at least seeing some snow falling Mon night through to Weds am IMO. 

    FAF9D94D-967D-49C2-A439-BD655A0F3629.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent

    Like this post. A fair, honest and down to earth type post which although sobering is going to be bang on the money... Still, a flake or two is always a special treat anything more fabulous ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Central Beds
  • Location: Central Beds
    47 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

    Like this post. A fair, honest and down to earth type post which although sobering is going to be bang on the money... Still, a flake or two is always a special treat anything more fabulous ? 

    I’m not sure about that - looks like cherry picking an outlier to me.  The other models are all showing fairly horrendous synoptics now, not looking good at all for even the slightest hint of a flake or two.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    Ext EPS continues to show benign calm conditions with a displaced Azores High over Southern France / Spain.  

    What happens next - can the heights migrate further north?

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    30 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

    Latest CFS is dreadful as it resembles a February 2014 repeat: Storm after storm after storm...... That's not good ?????????

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    But an horrendous CFS is almost as good as a major SSW?:oldlaugh:

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh
    1 hour ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

    Latest CFS is dreadful as it resembles a February 2014 repeat: Storm after storm after storm...... That's not good ?????????

    image.jpeg

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    I'd take those charts anyday, at least the HP is flattened so cold air flows in after the storms move east. Much better than the GFS and ecmwf outlook  - mild drizzly and windy for us in Scotland. 

    gfs-0-222.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    2 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

    I'd take those charts anyday, at least the HP is flattened so cold air flows in after the storms move east. Much better than the GFS and ecmwf outlook  - mild drizzly and windy for us in Scotland. 

    gfs-0-222.png

    Agreed 100%! It would allow for some interesting active weather at least.

    Next week looks a bit cooler than it did a few days ago as the jet manages to push the high pressure further south for a time. Only a temporary thing but nice to see.

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    Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
    1 hour ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

    Latest CFS is dreadful as it resembles a February 2014 repeat: Storm after storm after storm...... That's not good ?????????

    image.jpeg

    image.jpeg

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    image.jpeg

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    image.jpeg

    If it came to it I personally would much prefer this than a crap high pressure sat over us for days with still foggy nothingness 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    @Tim Bland keeping the dream alive ? still give it little to no chance but gfs is sticking with earlier output

    11C276A4-C88E-4540-856D-7C91C238FB9E.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Maybe, once next week's sleet & cold rain is out of the way, Day 10 is growing its 'summertime plumage'??

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Who knows??

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