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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

But, sadly, not enough 'potential' to prevent me from coming over all sleepy, all of a sudden!😴

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

What a shame that this chart is 384 hours away

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2 hours ago, weirpig said:

Just to put a bit of meat on the bones   The icon either brings  damaging windspeeds  Or snow  to most of England/ Wales   take your pick   

 image.thumb.png.98449333315848ec009b01995a7ea349.png   image.thumb.png.06fe1c88692b3672ba27105755b5339f.png    

image.png

image.png

Hope that bottom wind chart is kmph and not mph or else the SE corner will be flattened

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Just now, SqueakheartLW said:

Hope that bottom wind chart is kmph and not mph or else the SE corner will be flattened

Definitely km/h

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GEM has Monday's system further south

image.thumb.png.7572e9f5e823cbdbc7254f9ba95af712.png

JMA has it as some sort of wave rather than an enclosed system

image.thumb.png.3bb54e087325f89367f9f51b87441d7c.png

ECM has something similar, it to further south as a smaller feature mostly affecting the Channel and northern France 

image.thumb.png.ab8d16d9458b41352a1b8ecfb0dc8318.png

NAVGEM, again, a similar feature with the winds mainly affecting France.

image.thumb.png.12a60d48975fbb3179c26e6617cdf484.png

Definitely a chance of snowfall across the UK. 

Edited by PerfectStorm
wdwde

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I have been comforting myself this winter with the fact that I am off skiing to Ischgl in Austria for the second week of February and would at least see some snow there!  Mind you, even that's been a worry!

But as that time comes into the range of the models, I'm reminded that when I was last there two years ago, it coincided with perhaps the best bit of winter weather we've had for many a year as the "Beast from the East" visited. By the time I returned the excitement and the snow was on its last legs.

There's just a hint in the far reaches of the models that, once again, I could miss out on a nice bit of UK winter weather. Perhaps not in the same class as 2018's week, but certainly one which, if it did materialise, would be sensational when compared to what we have endured so far this winter.

 

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Both the ECM and GFS show quite a lot of energy digging south into the Atlantic .

The day ten ECM op isn’t too bad , that even shows the PV becoming a bit more disrupted .

The problems been getting these day ten charts to survive and count down .

 

 

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20 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Icon for Monday night...

8E5DAEAF-460F-4797-9D61-73924F86D6B3.png

Rain? Sleet? Snow? Ain't got a clue, can someone explain please thanks. 

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1 minute ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Rain? Sleet? Snow? Ain't got a clue, can someone explain please thanks. 

Snow is showed in the hatched area but caution is certainly advised as this is also often wide of the mark at this range . It’s just a guide at this juncture. That’s my understanding anyway and happy to be corrected .

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1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

Snow is showed in the hatched area but caution is certainly advised as this is also often wide of the mark at this range . It’s just a guide at this juncture. That’s my understanding anyway and happy to be corrected .

Thanks, Wales looks to be in the firing line on high ground let's hope it upgrades to an even wider scale for all of the UK 🇬🇧😉

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Just to show a little more detail compared to the other models, here's the UKV:

viewimage.thumb.png.6f5fea4bd8e7c6d1b2a6310f96104b28.png 112729345_viewimage(1).thumb.png.3065d31351ef680d76dae155d5e5dbf9.png

Not worth getting hung up on these, as it will change, a lot!

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7 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Thanks, Wales looks to be in the firing line on high ground let's hope it upgrades to an even wider scale for all of the UK 🇬🇧😉

Would be nice, because it looks like cold. Rain for the south East. Vile. 

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UKMO starting to look a bit more interesting imo.

Signs of HP building out east and lows sinking southwards with time. spacer.png

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Hmmm is it me or does the gfs and ukmo starting to look a little better with each run in the last 24 hours!!not a snowstorm by any means but colder with northwest winds and troughs going in a more south east direction🤔

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8 minutes ago, shaky said:

Hmmm is it me or does the gfs and ukmo starting to look a little better with each run in the last 24 hours!!not a snowstorm by any means but colder with northwest winds and troughs going in a more south east direction🤔

yeah. .and has been spewing  up for around  a week  now in supporting datas. .

Ie- EPS/GEFS. .500 geos! etc 

and is now getting a grip in the operationals. ..

and a time shortening sync! !!!

 

4 the 100th  time it 'could be' a noteworthy  semi -polar  incursion! !!

Edited by tight isobar

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90-574UK.GIF?23-12
Monday looks wintry for South west Scotland and North west England

108-574UK.GIF?23-12

GFS restricts the wintry weather to the north west of the system, very wet day

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Perhaps a little excitement early next week folks... At least something more akin to winter! Look at the 192hr charts, stubborn heights over SE Europe being replaced by lower heights finally!! Could we eventually be looking at a slow but fruitful change.. 

gfs-0-192.png

Edited by Mattwolves

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The Canadian high and the deepish low near the ne USA might give a window of opportunity .

The storm if it’s amplified enough could force some better ridging ahead of it .

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2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Perhaps a little excitement early next week folks... At least something more akin to winter! Look at the 192hr charts, stubborn heights over SE Europe being replaced by lower heights finally!! Could we eventually be looking at a slow but fruitful change.. 

gfs-0-192.png

This is what we need to see small changes in the shorter range rather than looking 240h+ every day this winter.

The shorter range changes can have a big impact further down the line but until we resolve the timing of the low on Monday night its best to keep an open mind.

I could be straw clutching but aren't we all at this stage of the winter.

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A couple of runs showing high pressure building over or near to us.

9579781D-2060-41F5-8F0B-EE40F934196F.png

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I think it’s very likely that the Canadian high will verify and some sort of low near the ne USA.

The amplitude of that will effect any ridge downstream . The issue is where the dig in the jet happens .

You don’t want to get caught the wrong side of that . Regardless the Canadian high , ne USA low combo give a chance for something a bit colder for the UK .

We’ll see what the ECM does later .

 

 

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1 hour ago, Drifter said:

UKMO starting to look a bit more interesting imo.

Signs of HP building out east and lows sinking southwards with time. spacer.png

I’m liking UKMO but for a different reason (though it could work in tandem with your thinking)

That little ridge building between the low pressure systems to our west is our next shot (albeit slim) of something colder setting up. At 144 there is plenty of time for upgrades/changes. GFS shows a similar ridge and just flattens it but at this range there is at least a ‘pinch’ of potential.

6A62D1B4-8FF6-4113-ADA3-F9A8B2F4737C.thumb.png.d4f0dd2b8690cc2739d8699b2f1eac0e.png

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Just for fun, perturbation 8 of the 12z GEFS is rather interesting In deep FI.  Channel low after channel low!

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