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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ICON 06z brings the storm tracking across the South Midlands out past EA- Thats a damaging system.

4C80F5D8-2356-4B60-ABCD-C0406C504079.thumb.png.3086d5169d8bf583f38ebc64f935c232.png

Usual caveats too with these charts but snow for quite a few too with the system on Icon.

iconeu_uk1-1-108-0.png

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Well, the dog-end of the GFS 00Z paints (to me at least) a very interesting situation: the extent of >+5C uppers looks very large, for the time of year, and the temperature gradient (+5 to -5C) appears to be very steep, across pretty-much the entire chart...No wonder places such as Newfoundland have experienced such monumental snow falls? And, as prospects for a major SSW subside...?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

I wonder what'll happen, once the tPV starts to autodestruct...?:search:

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1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

Well, the dog-end of the GFS 00Z paints (to me at least) a very interesting situation: the extent of >+5C uppers looks very large, for the time of year, and the temperature gradient (+5 to -5C) appears to be very steep, across pretty-much the entire chart...No wonder places such as Newfoundland have experienced such monumental snow falls? And, as prospects for a major SSW subside...?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

I wonder what'll happen, once the tPV starts to autodestruct...?:search:

a major ssw is not forseen at the moment.......

 

image.thumb.png.fad4db70759cd2e569731eb615633e8e.png

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spacer.pngGEFS 0z

spacer.pngGFS 0z @ 150

spacer.pngGFS 0z @150

Some snow likely for some between Mon 27th and Wed 29th ( especially over 150 m ).

in fairness to GFS it has hinted at this in the modelling for 10 days now.

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8 minutes ago, Catacol said:

The Pacific convection cycle has worked as expected, and actually the current spike would be above expectations and a cold lover’s best case scenario if the vortex hadn’t strengthened and coupled as it did. The forecasts and hopecasts didn’t expect such a swift vortex intensification and dominance of the pattern. Clearly the seasonal modelling correctly predicted that intensification this time around, and sustained IO forcing in the flatter phases of the MJO profile served to enhance/support that situation. Perhaps also too little emphasis was given to the still weakly positive QBO in December. Cold winters from wQBO Decembers are rare.

Early to be writing off the season as the current momentum surge may yet have positive consequences, and a greater chance of blocking in March given the timing of the next Pacific wave is distinctly possible, but my own feeling as of today is that we are pretty much done for this cold season now. I can see a Euro High dominated February on the horizon. Here’s hoping for a slap in the face.

Lets hope so!

 

06z A fairway south on the track at 84- could be a midlands direct hit like the ICON

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9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Lets hope so!

 

06z A fairway south on the track at 84- could be a midlands direct hit like the ICON

Barely develops on the 06z until bout 114 hours!!!could be one of those that keep shifting further and further south with each run!!

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Just to put a bit of meat on the bones   The icon either brings  damaging windspeeds  Or snow  to most of England/ Wales   take your pick   

 image.thumb.png.98449333315848ec009b01995a7ea349.png   image.thumb.png.06fe1c88692b3672ba27105755b5339f.png    

image.png

image.png

Edited by weirpig
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GFS 06z blows up the low post-UK exit so we miss the main force of that storm:

anim_zbo1.gif

The cold front mainly rain but maybe back-edge snow with altitude up north. Though usual suspects as per settling-snow chart:

T114> 114-780UK.thumb.gif.aafd4beb8026060f47ce82b997e5b48a.gif T138> 138-780UK.thumb.gif.d7ccb66355fc6d83bc6df490255c12e2.gif

Nice steady cold flow following so further chances especially for NW Scotland and where the colder uppers push through. So a bit of an upgrade, with 3+ days of colder westerly's:

anim_cng2.gif

Not snow'maggedon, but worthy of a mention in the hope it verifies?

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Interesting to see the whole NH modelled in a cold zonal flow with that bottled up cold just looking to leak south, we can see the cold-fingers on these charts:

gfsnh-0-228.thumb.png.48839a9037d270752ddff7423cc65341.pnggfsnh-1-228.thumb.png.f445c7ad9f217c294417741e8ca23b5a.png

That ties in with the background signals still working but unable to conquer the strat-trop forcing, ergo no progressive amplification of those waves, with the westerly flow cycling round mid-latitudes on a continuous loop.

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ECM extended - very disappointing for the next 10-12 days:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020012300_240.image.thumb.png.aaebdf60273563a712f3225a85078982.png


There is a high pressure cluster appearing at the end of the run today, but hard to say at that range if it's just noise or a trend. Biggest cluster still going for continuation of Atlantic driven westerlies.

image.thumb.png.67bd548b676be4c9baa20094842752c3.png

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Europe going in to freezer next week :))) Uppers as low as -8C reaching northern Finland by the end of January, brace yourselves 

gfs-1-192.png

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A trade-off for the slower westerly flow that gives us a longer colder flow also means the alternating warm sectors will reflect that, D10-11:

gfseu-9-246.thumb.png.249653956b4b6eab0638e0895eca0b63.pnggfseu-9-270.thumb.png.abd091e3473730dba1b5487757f9aeed.png

JFF but within the bounds of possibilities.

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1 hour ago, Catacol said:

Early to be writing off the season as the current momentum surge may yet have positive consequences, and a greater chance of blocking in March given the timing of the next Pacific wave is distinctly possible, but my own feeling as of today is that we are pretty much done for this cold season now. I can see a Euro High dominated February on the horizon. Here’s hoping for a slap in the face.

woah, that's pretty disappointing for coldies.

However the short/mid term models only support this point of view until well into February. ECM clusters this morning tell the same story as they have for days. Blues to the north / yellows+oranges to the south mean a likely strengthening of a westerly regime compared to the norm.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020012300_360.

However, just for the next few weeks, even a small wrap-around low can possibly introduce enough cold air from the north for just a few hours to bring snow for some:

114-515UK.GIF?23-6  114-574UK.GIF?23-6

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Here comes another wild goose chase............

image.thumb.png.3d46a9aa97b1a4b94228c14e0771e580.png

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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Lets hope so!

 

06z A fairway south on the track at 84- could be a midlands direct hit like the ICON

Further nudges southward to come?  Could be a few more felled trees and fences for southern areas again.

image.thumb.png.66fcad4d2bb524403663b4066f2593f5.png

 

I agree with Catacol as have always thought Jan and Feb would suffer with wrong place HP cells for proper cold.  Feb not here yet but these patterns generally last well into Feb when set in like now.  But I too can see a pretty cold Spring coming

BFTP

 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Some potential at last ....

ECA617CA-2EB6-419C-AAA0-73AC4E809584.png

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But, sadly, not enough 'potential' to prevent me from coming over all sleepy, all of a sudden!?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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45 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Some potential at last ....

ECA617CA-2EB6-419C-AAA0-73AC4E809584.png

Not much support from the ensembles, joining the small noise (ATM) cluster. The mean:

1034367128_gensnh-21-1-384(5).thumb.png.c86fb381c0c40c6a85d1da52e1489d80.png graphe4_1000___8.8679245283_62.955465587_.thumb.png.aa6987edf36816db7d5c7a826479562d.png

Would need the op to run with this for 10 days plus and be joined by the ensembles. Note to watch, but as it stands very nominal possibilities. The Scandi pressure charts shows op as a whopping outlier in FI^^^ The mean significantly lower.

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1 hour ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Hello Monday !!

 

image.thumb.png.ea6b5a1a465bf178687014aa0de7b997.png

Ouch. In North Lincolnshire. Looks like I only just miss out on that by miles

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