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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it w

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Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
    57 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

    Turn back the clock to early-mid Nov when peeps were getting excited by southerly tracking lows, and all 'we' ended up with was weeks of cold rain.

    Whilst the Winter-resident AH/mid-Atlantic High (take your pick on the name) stays relatively 'put', add in the Winter 19/20 2nd HP foe, namely the Ruskie High, and we'll just get a return to cold rain, being brought across Blighty, on system after system. Yuk! Bring on Fuerteventura in late March?

    Scotland had a very frosty November due to the southerly tracking lows with snowfall at times.

    If we are to return to a period of southerly tracking lows, there's a lot more cold to the north given the time of year.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    As others have commented, ECM offering something a bit different in the 5-7 day timeframe with a more southerly tracking jet, enabling cold uppers to flood northern half of UK which would increase risk of relatively low level snow for some. However, it then follows GFS in bringing the azores high back into play, and its back to square one, with a mild SW flow, and the jet reverting more to a SW-NE pattern.

    GFS is showing some colder polar maritime airflow by Sunday into north as well, lasting a couple of days or so.

    Can't see any real shake up of the pattern of the winter so far as we move into February, perhaps a slightly more amplified flow, with the azores high ridging NE, then backing away to the SW, with a westerly then shortlived dig of NW air, before it comes back again. A typical atlantic pattern.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    9 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    As others have commented, ECM offering something a bit different in the 5-7 day timeframe with a more southerly tracking jet, enabling cold uppers to flood northern half of UK which would increase risk of relatively low level snow for some. However, it then follows GFS in bringing the azores high back into play, and its back to square one, with a mild SW flow, and the jet reverting more to a SW-NE pattern.

    GFS is showing some colder polar maritime airflow by Sunday into north as well, lasting a couple of days or so.

    Can't see any real shake up of the pattern of the winter so far as we move into February, perhaps a slightly more amplified flow, with the azores high ridging NE, then backing away to the SW, with a westerly then shortlived dig of NW air, before it comes back again. A typical atlantic pattern.

     

    A stuck record and an incredibly boring song at that 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    Anyone got a bucket?

    cfs-0-540.png?00

    CFS I know, but even the Cold Forecasting System isn't showing any luck for winter weather (although that may be a blessing). That chart looks like February has done a trade deal with early December!

    A week later - another super high anyone?:

    cfs-0-714.png?00

     

    All eyes on the 18Z GFS...

    Edit: Don't look at the 18Z GFS.

    Edited by MP-R
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    I see after a few good GFS suites,the strat event is slowly fizzling out into another minor displacement one albeit this time into a more favourable position.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
    6 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

    18z is HORRIFIC.... 

     

    It's like an eternity in hell with a conveyor belt of azores high rubbish PV refusing to budge.

    In a nutshell, truly awful as if you were  stuck in a nightmare where there's no way out..... Mother in law stays  for the weekend and then stays a week..... Only FAR WORSE..... 

    The mornings runs can only be BOOOOOOOM charts then. 

    Think positive normally when the pub run is good the mornings are crap. 

    So you never no. ??????

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Another day, another set of useless runs. Perhaps a little bit of wintriness over high ground early next week, before it turns milder with SW'erlies once more.

    No signal for anything drier and more settled returning in the near future either.

    image.thumb.png.174c91b862e0b4d8208ab6dcc40c9338.pngimage.thumb.png.9e6fca538b460b48e69f4a5f43032581.png

    Might have to chuck in another above average prediction in the Feb CET competition. Been on the money so far for Dec and Jan, easy game this! ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    8 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    I see after a few good GFS suites,the strat event is slowly fizzling out into another minor displacement one albeit this time into a more favourable position.

    Yes, I rarely bother with SSW watching as it is as bad as D10 ECM charts or the Pub Run, rarely verifying in a way we need for long-term cold. Cohen has been suggesting that it will be a minor event for a week or so.

    As for my locale for the next two weeks, above average as a whole: graphe6_1000_294_148___.thumb.png.1349fdd3a82d8add72609d83669a7e98.png

    A January CET of >3.0c above average looks close.

    Much of the same into late in FI, the mean suggests the main tPV returning to our NW, so maybe the jet further south, and possibly an underlying cooler flow on a NW to SE axis, or close to:

    mean D16>1639242516_gensnh-21-1-384(4).thumb.png.9e3b1dc11841514f8609445fca1fc917.png MJO>819742076_ensplume_full(1).thumb.gif.a13d1143f8bf5bcfcd900a77dd11297c.gif

    Other than that, zero blocking, no sign of the current MJO signal after the 10-day lag, no sign of the tPV waning or any disrupt between strat-trop coupling. The forecast MJO dying in 6, COD back to 5 at low amplitude, and maybe signs back to 1 late on?

    For most, maybe a cool(cold) day here and there, up north and higher ground some transient snow, before the accompanying warm sector melts. Rain at times and with the tPV chunk sliding west to east to our north any satellite low runners close to the jet could intensify so maybe stormy at times. More late Autumnal than winter synoptic really.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester

    More dreadful output for winter fans, and the teleconnections are not supportive of any change. I think it was Glacier Point who suggested a change in early Feb, but I would think that is off the table now.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    1 hour ago, IDO said:

    Yes, I rarely bother with SSW watching as it is as bad as D10 ECM charts or the Pub Run, rarely verifying in a way we need for long-term cold. Cohen has been suggesting that it will be a minor event for a week or so.

    As for my locale for the next two weeks, above average as a whole: graphe6_1000_294_148___.thumb.png.1349fdd3a82d8add72609d83669a7e98.png

    A January CET of >3.0c above average looks close.

    Much of the same into late in FI, the mean suggests the main tPV returning to our NW, so maybe the jet further south, and possibly an underlying cooler flow on a NW to SE axis, or close to:

    mean D16>1639242516_gensnh-21-1-384(4).thumb.png.9e3b1dc11841514f8609445fca1fc917.png MJO>819742076_ensplume_full(1).thumb.gif.a13d1143f8bf5bcfcd900a77dd11297c.gif

    Other than that, zero blocking, no sign of the current MJO signal after the 10-day lag, no sign of the tPV waning or any disrupt between strat-trop coupling. The forecast MJO dying in 6, COD back to 5 at low amplitude, and maybe signs back to 1 late on?

    For most, maybe a cool(cold) day here and there, up north and higher ground some transient snow, before the accompanying warm sector melts. Rain at times and with the tPV chunk sliding west to east to our north any satellite low runners close to the jet could intensify so maybe stormy at times. More late Autumnal than winter synoptic really.

    Wonder how long before you write a post that talks about bitterly cold Continental Arctic Air flooding over the country.Keep the faith.?

    Cant believe no model is showing any sign of a change.This constant pattern of High pressure over Eastern canada driving  the cold air over the Atlantic ,keeps firing up the jet,lots of winters ruined when this pattern gets stuck.

    Edited by SLEETY
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    52 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

    More dreadful output for winter fans, and the teleconnections are not supportive of any change. I think it was Glacier Point who suggested a change in early Feb, but I would think that is off the table now.

    Nothing what was suggested for Jan has occured as the focus was from Eastern blocking - maybe the torpedo is still circulating.

    The only winter forecasts that have been amy good are the seasonal ones & what Tamara put out in November - December.

     

    Anyway a nasty storm developing at day 5 with the potential for heavy rain & storm force winds with the added bonus of blizzards for some >150M

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    ICON 06z brings the storm tracking across the South Midlands out past EA- Thats a damaging system.

    4C80F5D8-2356-4B60-ABCD-C0406C504079.thumb.png.3086d5169d8bf583f38ebc64f935c232.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
    13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    ICON 06z brings the storm tracking across the South Midlands out past EA- Thats a damaging system.

    4C80F5D8-2356-4B60-ABCD-C0406C504079.thumb.png.3086d5169d8bf583f38ebc64f935c232.png

    Usual caveats too with these charts but snow for quite a few too with the system on Icon.

    iconeu_uk1-1-108-0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL

    GFS 00Z MONDAY

    Winters back.

    h500slp.thumb.png.623bcfe8c8cec4b6881358db9f85b02e.png

    prectypeuktopo.thumb.png.233572335c1e00ce9c3483b9cd15d5ce.png

    ukgust.thumb.png.b494dfe5f6fb3c77641b4cb38f7a9a7e.png

    More like it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Well, the dog-end of the GFS 00Z paints (to me at least) a very interesting situation: the extent of >+5C uppers looks very large, for the time of year, and the temperature gradient (+5 to -5C) appears to be very steep, across pretty-much the entire chart...No wonder places such as Newfoundland have experienced such monumental snow falls? And, as prospects for a major SSW subside...?

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    I wonder what'll happen, once the tPV starts to autodestruct...?:search:

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    Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway
    1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

    Well, the dog-end of the GFS 00Z paints (to me at least) a very interesting situation: the extent of >+5C uppers looks very large, for the time of year, and the temperature gradient (+5 to -5C) appears to be very steep, across pretty-much the entire chart...No wonder places such as Newfoundland have experienced such monumental snow falls? And, as prospects for a major SSW subside...?

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    I wonder what'll happen, once the tPV starts to autodestruct...?:search:

    a major ssw is not forseen at the moment.......

     

    image.thumb.png.fad4db70759cd2e569731eb615633e8e.png

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