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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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Nothing much in the GFS 00Z that suggests a cold, snowy late-winter might be on the way:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

T+384 hardly screams 'blizzards', does it?😱

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35 minutes ago, IDO said:

No comment on the pub run as it is pretty useless when showing snow/cold nirvana when everything else is not.

No change this morning. Cold front at T132 on GFS hitting NW areas and by T190 left the SE coast. Not cold uppers, though above the average we have seen this January by a way. Another cold front follows shortly after, looking more potent for the North but likely to be modelled less cold with runs. Euro high building in from D13 with an Atlantic trough so till the end of FI mild and wet UK.

All three models similar with the big picture in the UK sector by D10:

2122632780_ECE1-240(4).thumb.gif.939785082b76106b798fe08e77f16b2a.gif1075450514_gemeu-0-240(1).thumb.png.b364ef516f5c15194c403afc0f23bf89.png930709847_gfseu-0-240(1).thumb.png.018e97d9a866cc8c6d7624ed04c3e014.png

Good consistency as we enter February. So we can expect the FI of GFS to have good groundings though the GEFS are showing little guidance out to D16 apart that zonal in one form or other apart from a noisy member or two. Certainy no forcing and if anything the tPV looks more organised than yesterday's 0z.

2128069337_gensnh-21-1-384(3).thumb.png.145b019e93ccf96c3ee02d5988bea168.png

A complete lack of any signal for strong mid-lat blocking let alone high-lat. The MJO is looking like the COD so no sign that will help in February with the lag factor:

ensplume_full.thumb.gif.df0b5460d9897413e366f221a477429e.gif

So the reality is with v.strong strat-trop coupling, any background factors will probably be overridden by this driver, though no sign of an active MJO cold wave for the rest of winter, so little hope of anything other than getting lucky with the ebb and flow of systems that may allow temporary paths to a colder burst(s). 

Quite so IDO. For our corner of the globe at least a strongly couple Strat)trop vortex trump's pretty every other background signal. 

The background signals and forcings seem to come into their own much more when when one or both are weaker or uncoupled.  This year GLosea obviously saw a strong coupling taking place and had so far proved to be on the money.

Whether we can get some weakening or uncoupling remains to be seen but seems unlikely.

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Mmmm.....back to strat watching

GFS 00z at 10hpa has this.....maybe it is right this time?

 

37305E52-708A-483A-B25D-E009740F1F62.png

F6D4CC57-AAA6-401C-8A67-DA921B8C6B8D.png

6F919D7C-8D72-4A6A-8ACE-6E59D31DE27A.png

A581BD57-B918-41FC-9E70-DC76C9E6FFC1.png

A3BF7C3A-9BAB-4D5F-B9ED-E1098DEED512.png

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Even if t384 was showing raging  blizzards it wouldn't make any difference would it at that time frame, its a waste of time it goes out that far,every 6 hours it changes. 

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34 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Even if t384 was showing raging  blizzards it wouldn't make any difference would it at that time frame, its a waste of time it goes out that far,every 6 hours it changes. 

I tend to agree, SLEETY...but, with one proviso: it'll take a major upheaval to overturn the +NAO pattern we've 'enjoyed' for so long! An SSW could do that, I guess, but predicting those (and what they'll do) is fraught with even more uncertainty than the good ol' GFS?😱

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23 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

I tend to agree, SLEETY...but, with one proviso: it'll take a major upheaval to overturn the +NAO pattern we've 'enjoyed' for so long! An SSW could do that, I guess, but predicting those (and what they'll do) is fraught with even more uncertainty than the good ol' GFS?😱

I'd happily take an SSW and roll the dice as I can't see anything else delivering the goods in this perpetual autumn 😥

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00z Monday 18:00 GMT

Such a contrast in Windspeed - interested to experience this - maybe nothing out of the ordinary?

Seems such a dramatic drop.

ukgust.thumb.png.0caf756fa9498c040fac8f88c6e1f92f.png

 

 

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1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Even if t384 was showing raging  blizzards it wouldn't make any difference would it at that time frame, its a waste of time it goes out that far,every 6 hours it changes. 

I think that we have a chance of a limited time block if we can get that cut-off upper low in the Atlantic around D9 then the next HP cell could build north supported by that low. 

That was seen on the 18z:

371698921_gfseu-0-240(2).thumb.png.bc56e735b1d6457fa50d90bdde352022.png

One to watch out for as it has cluster support at varying degrees, the 18z op the best case scenario.🤞

NB. The 06z moves away from that possibility and looking low probability.

Edited by IDO

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ECM clusters D12. Relentless SW flow.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020012200_300.

Only variations are gale/storm (cluster 1 an example of how a potent storm could affect even inland areas at any time in coming fortnight), wet/dry (highly likely to be wet at times - the more settled cluster is only at 14% of runs), and whether passing cold fronts have enough of a temporary NW draw in them to provide snow interest for high ground in the north and west. 

Flooding and trees down the most likely weather story as we enter February.

 

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23 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM clusters D12. Relentless SW flow.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020012200_300.

Only variations are gale/storm (cluster 1 an example of how a potent storm could affect even inland areas at any time in coming fortnight), wet/dry (highly likely to be wet at times - the more settled cluster is only at 14% of runs), and whether passing cold fronts have enough of a temporary NW draw in them to provide snow interest for high ground in the north and west. 

Flooding and trees down the most likely weather story as we enter February.

 

Yep. Never looks good when at day 15 the only 3 clusters are all +NAO:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020012200_360.

The clock is definitely ticking on this 'winter' now. First week of Feb already looking like going in the bin.

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A very convincing set of signals IMO. I can see nothing at all that might mitigate against mild southwesterlies continuing to dominate...?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

PS: I'm ignoring, for now, any talk of an SSW...

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1 hour ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

00z Monday 18:00 GMT

Such a contrast in Windspeed - interested to experience this - maybe nothing out of the ordinary?

Seems such a dramatic drop.

ukgust.thumb.png.0caf756fa9498c040fac8f88c6e1f92f.png

 

 

very windy  and certainly one to keep an eye on   it may not be nothing out of the oridnary fro coastal regions  but inland  those wind speeds  on that chart show something approaching speeds seen with storm doris    interesting to see over the coming days  what the charts show 

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7 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

A very convincing set of signals IMO. I can see nothing at all that might mitigate against mild southwesterlies continuing to dominate...?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

PS: I'm ignoring, for now, any talk of an SSW...

It's just a  case of wait and see now......... 

I still expect this pattern to at least deliver a 2-3 day northerly as the pattern breaks (temporarily)

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MJO takes another step towards Phase 8 today, but the models don't seem to want to know, particularly ECM, so I think it would be well worth while seeing how this pans out before writing off weeks more of winter.

image.thumb.jpg.79914e2c6b1b45596a9434a67e053e25.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.be2f85292fe16c25b80ec25e53331567.jpg

I'm not holding out much hope, to be honest, but the odd run (I can think of one from each of ECM, GFS and GEM) has had a ridge pushed up by a low over the US in eastern Canada, which is a possible solution in the mix, not favourite by a long way, but there nonetheless.  

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9 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Yep, the strong  coupled strat-trop PV is fending off poleward momentum into the mid/high latitudes from high/++AAM and MT and any poleward amplification from the MJO wave the same - kept towards the tropics.

With regards to the QBO, only easterly above 30 hPa over the tropics, whole lot of zonal westerlies north of that. Our winters tend to benefit most when we come out of the solar minimum, on average, so maybe the next few winters will fare better.

I guess we have to hope that the strat-trop coupled PV becomes weakened and/or displaced towards NE Europe as we head through Feb, signs of that in GFS, to be the catalyst to a pattern change, but probably will be a slow process.

 

the hope increases of the weakening end of Jan

image.thumb.png.aef2d55533e5afbf62d87d5341f660fd.pngimage.thumb.png.70fd34ffa18a867ab4d444a01f2fb6a5.pngimage.thumb.png.e84d0c5001fa451e289e4bfd1f82087d.png

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I'm getting to the point where I'm losing my focus for searching for cold, I'm now convinced a cold snap will appear when everyone has lost interest!! The gem as us at +8 uppers in the South come day 10 under a ridge of high pressure to the South!! Great start to February that!!! One positive is the GFS in deep lala land has the main area of vortex separating from the Canadian side, and perhaps heading towards siberia! So perhaps we could start to see more interest come mid month! Wouldn't be at all surprised to see a major shake up as we move into March!! 

gemnh-0-240.png

gfsnh-0-384.png

Edited by Mattwolves

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Getting to the point now where I don’t want an SSW as it will be nearly March by the time we see the effects (if any).

This is by far the worst winter I’ve experienced since 2004 when I began model watching. I can’t remember one occasion where the models have shown anything cold within the 10 day range. Most winters we get some eye candy, but nothing this year.

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ECM is quite different to the others with amplification to our NE forcing the lows further south 

image.thumb.png.dbbf28f045f2422267d09a5812c00f35.png

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