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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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The PV has had it on this run . 

D85D4460-3154-4A84-A271-32179BABFBDE.png

25E5E0EA-2EA1-44ED-A7C6-D268F070398D.png

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Ridge sharpening, here comes another go.

image.thumb.png.2ed81a044708094d007508f20a9dc9ab.png

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As noted by others the GFS 18z is a lovely run and along the lines of my thoughts which I posted a while back about cooler / colder  from the NW / N then attempts at higher pressure toward Greenland fitting in with MJO phases 6/7 though phase 7 weaker than originally thought. Obviously some caveats being that we have seen quite a few times the 18z runs tending to be quite a bit colder than the others and with the coupled strat and IOD those haven't helped either but with a weakening of IOD and a PV displacement likely fingers crossed that we will have a chance at something more akin to winter. Will be interesting to see what the ensembles show.

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ECM and GFS at T240...Spot the difference?😋

gfsnh-0-240.png

ECH1-240.png

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Evening 

nice to see that the gfs is churning out yet another stonker of a run as did last nights when it was trying to sniff out a Scandi block but it's all for good viewing purposes only until we count it down,and the pv looks to be weakening with double barrels of warmings happening in fl

nice chart at 336 a good -NAO sig there

gfsnh-0-336.thumb.png.37aa2353f2cc8626884d68bba43ce7da.png

just waiting for the latest 18z strat charts to come out but look at the 12z,two warmings putting stress on the spv there.

gfsnh-10-384.thumb.png.66a89aae078565629d3f420106ff84ab.png

18z out now.

1881051145_gfsnh-10-384(1).thumb.png.c55811e2627b21131e3a698d43be5cfb.png

over to the gefs ens to see where it fits,hopefully a good set this time as the 12z was a bit shocking.

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Very nice GFS 18, but I'm not keeping my hopes up just yet. 

The PV will have to weaken at some point, but can't see that happening before the 10-15th of February. We're in a weather pattern that is very difficult to unblock. 

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6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Evening 

nice to see that the gfs is churning out yet another stonker of a run as did last nights when it was trying to sniff out a Scandi block but it's all for good viewing purposes only until we count it down,and the pv looks to be weakening with double barrels of warmings happening in fl

nice chart at 336 a good -NAO sig there

gfsnh-0-336.thumb.png.37aa2353f2cc8626884d68bba43ce7da.png

just waiting for the latest 18z strat charts to come out but look at the 12z,two warmings putting stress on the spv there.

gfsnh-10-384.thumb.png.66a89aae078565629d3f420106ff84ab.png

18z out now.

1881051145_gfsnh-10-384(1).thumb.png.c55811e2627b21131e3a698d43be5cfb.png

over to the gefs ens to see where it fits,hopefully a good set this time as the 12z was a bit shocking.

The first warming of the two seems to be intensifying somewhat, can we see some -8s or even -4s I wonder in tomorrows runs?

gfsnh-10-270.png

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3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

 

nice chart at 336 a good -NAO sig there

gfsnh-0-336.thumb.png.37aa2353f2cc8626884d68bba43ce7da.png

That's not a -NAO though, pressure still quite a bit lower over Iceland than over the Azores, if there's high pressure over Iceland and low pressure over Azores to Lisbon then yes.

Not expecting 00z GFS to repeat 18z moment of wintry euphoria, enjoy the virtusl cold and snowfest while you can!

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18z ensembles aint buying into the op's thoughts 741676514_graphe3_1000___-3.16202_56.10878_(5).thumb.png.e09661c38310f853c43d5b4bb0cda147.png we will have to wait and see where this goes but I still find it hard to trust the FV3 with its history of a cold bias.

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As expected an outlier, pub run does it again.

graphe_ens3.gif

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9 minutes ago, Nick F said:

That's not a -NAO though, pressure still quite a bit lower over Iceland than over the Azores, if there's high pressure over Iceland and low pressure over Azores to Lisbon then yes.

Not expecting 00z GFS to repeat 18z moment of wintry euphoria, enjoy the virtusl cold and snowfest while you can!

Thanks for clarifying the Nick🙂

i was prob getting a bit hasty with regards to amplitude in that sector and getting carried away as do most folk on here when they see even a sniff of cold scenario's in the NWP'S

lets hope we see this amplitude gain momentum over the coming days.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si

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Let's hope this is the  start  of the momentum to what could be termed winter weather and snow and cold. 

The seasonal models and their forecasts for a very mild February, could be about to go bust... 

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2 hours ago, Nick F said:

Was wondering when a GFS operational would bring back from the dead a northerly.

12z extended EPS mean indicates the postive height anomaly / HLB over Canada slowly migrating towards Greenland by day 15, while a negative H500 anomaly persists over Scandinavia. This perhaps highlights potential for northerlies and this movement of positive heights out of Canada appears to be the catalyst for the 18z GFS northerly in FI.

However, troughing modelled over the mid-Atlantic towards Azores needs to do one, as per 18z, in order to do this.

There is “support” for +ve heights in that region a Canadian warming. NAO trending less positive...

DEF004EB-B240-4550-85D5-09597AA5DC4B.thumb.gif.40631ff5490162e88878e492a100aa1b.gif

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ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

So if we were going with the MJO as a driver to are next pattern change then another ridge should set up again very close to the UK in early February as there is a lag time isn't there?

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There is really no excitement for the cold and snow lovers at all on the charts and January is certain will end up being virtually snowless for the vast majority. If anything the potential for a stormy low is more likely although the usual GFS weather bomb set ups it usually shows are quite laughable. 

Very little signs of the jet stream aligning in a WNW'ly to ESE'ly direction which at least may bring in decent polar air so instead we get modest cool air forecast mixed in with positive air at times. 

Looks like on both the GFS and ECM long range charts, the PV over the pole could strengthen even further than it already is although the usual cold bias could be playing a part here. 

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Not surprisingly,  the 0z GFS not interested in any of the 18z Northerly shenanigans.

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7 hours ago, Nick F said:

That's not a -NAO though, pressure still quite a bit lower over Iceland than over the Azores, if there's high pressure over Iceland and low pressure over Azores to Lisbon then yes.

Not expecting 00z GFS to repeat 18z moment of wintry euphoria, enjoy the virtusl cold and snowfest while you can!

And lo and behold, it disappears. It seems it is easier to predict what won't happen and that would seem to include anything remotely wintry or cold or snowy for the UK ... A Very sad and poor winter this has turned out to be....again.

Edited by Snowfish2

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Another set of absolutely dire 00z runs.
 

image.thumb.png.2bcda417052236fb083edeabcde990f7.png

No cold anywhere really on the 00z GFS ensembles, ECM is similar, as is GEM.

No longer range signal for a return to any higher pressure either. Strap yourselves in for another round of what we've had all winter - nothing.

image.thumb.png.1de3a0b886b56a339a0d8aa8f79ecaf7.png
 

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What could be notable next week is the wind.

The Icon shows a deep low over the country early next week.

image.thumb.png.900609596668cdb330c530f5cd7c0e80.png

 

image.thumb.png.ed00d34cb9abed89f3e251c819876b14.png You can see where that 960 low on the UKMO would be a few hours earlier.

image.thumb.png.ff9f51b81cd4a5fdd99d18000de1c461.png And the GEM shows this for wednesday showing there is multiple instances of possible severe wind next week

 

image.png

Edited by SouthLondonCold

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I think that there is a good chance that there could be an incursion of polar maritime air next week that could bring some snow to higher ground in the north, and beyond that towards the start of February the longer range models point to a mix of colder PM air and milder incursions.  Although the pattern looks less set in a mild rut compared to the earlier part of January, there is still nothing to indicate a chance of salvaging a meaningful cold spell out of this winter.

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6 hours ago, Daniel* said:

There is “support” for +ve heights in that region a Canadian warming. NAO trending less positive...

DEF004EB-B240-4550-85D5-09597AA5DC4B.thumb.gif.40631ff5490162e88878e492a100aa1b.gif

Not really, the warming normally occurs over over troughing - the steeper the geopotential gradient of the trough below the particular vortex level, the stronger the warming, strongest of all when the geopotential contours of the two levels are perpendicular. In the corresponding 500mb charts to the animation the low heights can be seen over northern Canada and Greenland. If the EPS shows increased heights in this area later on, the warming will fade away.

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