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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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Looking very windy next week with gales at times, a very active, vigorous, mobile, average pattern through the heart of winter by the look of it.  Is that uncle Barty beginning to make his presence felt? or will the trop vortex slip over Scandinavia/Siberia and threaten us with a colder Northwesterly?

519542237_windy1.thumb.gif.41e088cffe84f58d04a7b6d21a8c329f.gif1786818271_windy2.thumb.gif.45970dc882702f4538a9ea6c9202c9d8.gif

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1 hour ago, MikeC53 said:

Terrible ECM which takes us to the turn of the month. If we get to the positions shown then it's at least 10 days from there before there could be any favourable shift from the pattern 

Day 10..

image.thumb.png.d8b43e497554345471210bcf9ce4af8e.png

image.thumb.png.1a80d5467c7637ca64366b5e52ad7d44.png

Zero prospect of cold if we land at this chart, probably first half of Feb,minimum.

Very nice in the Canaries /south Spain , i would imagine it has been lovely for anyone taking a Winter break there this time round.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Day 10..

image.thumb.png.d8b43e497554345471210bcf9ce4af8e.png

image.thumb.png.1a80d5467c7637ca64366b5e52ad7d44.png

Zero prospect of cold if we land at this chart, probably first half of Feb,minimum.

Very nice in the Canaries /south Spain , i would imagine it has been lovely for anyone taking a Winter break there this time round.

 

 

Yes another glorious winter in Iberia for the most part, the Spanish Met made a great call last winter. Not sure what they said for this winter, but it has been much the same down there.

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16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Day 10..

image.thumb.png.d8b43e497554345471210bcf9ce4af8e.png

image.thumb.png.1a80d5467c7637ca64366b5e52ad7d44.png

Zero prospect of cold if we land at this chart, probably first half of Feb,minimum.

Very nice in the Canaries /south Spain , i would imagine it has been lovely for anyone taking a Winter break there this time round.

 

 

Decent barring the recent storms!
 

23636048-0-image-a-64_1579527872464.jpg
WWW.DAILYMAIL.CO.UK

Flights to London, Newcastle and other major UK cities were cancelled as Storm Gloria slammed into the Spanish coastline. In Denia, Alicante, the sea was filmed rushing into the town and surrounding cars

Look at all the snow though. I know it's at elevation, but we've not seen anything like that here all winter, even over higher ground. Sums it up really.


Nothing especially cold showing on the D10 ECM ensembles either:

image.thumb.png.2b924d15c73a0ebf3ac147c783f867dc.png

Seeya later January.

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For those that like storms, Monday night beginning to look really rough across all models. May warrant its own thread shortly as there is consistency there now.

gfs-0-162.png

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The usual trend for that possible NW'ly on the GFS 06z with the mini-wave more subdued like the ECM and a satellite low off the main low to the north warming out the uppers. So anything wintry now almost certainly needing altitude:

GFS 06zgfseu-0-180.thumb.png.ea1a54597b0c39e19abd25feaca4dce0.pngECM 0z>844777722_ECE1-192(1).thumb.gif.8e4048f1c6d8bdd340749c4e38b93bb2.gif

So if we look at the uppers, they reflect the downgrade in the mini-wave:

06z>1871776342_gfseu-1-198(1).thumb.png.5ca4044b63f38b52a2dbbcc9f369409c.png 0z>931764915_gfseu-1-204(2).thumb.png.663ea5cba17e8bdf5441bde232413bab.png

So shorter colder flow moderated less cool. Looks like similar to ECM with milder uppers from D9.

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2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Looking at the ECM day ten chart, parts of the South of England could see temperatures into the mid to high teens.

I'm  skeptical that those warm uppers will make it all the way from the US east coast to the channel without being mixed out to some extent?  Not the first time this winter that i have seen the GFS or the ECM produce runs at D7+ that try and get +10 uppers all the way across the Atlantic to Europe.  Pattern may well be right however, just not as mild as those temps suggest.

Also remember before Xmas both models showing -10 uppers transiting from south of Newfoundland to Ire/UK without modification at the D7+ range, and that is just crazy talk.

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ECM clusters.....start as you mean to go on:

image.thumb.png.64b89d3c3a72a67f442fb45c8f32e5a8.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020012100_240.image.thumb.png.eeac14b7f14a37c3d987ad65956226f1.pngimage.thumb.png.976ef2e372e1d2cc5eb3ed2f56d4f354.png

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7 minutes ago, IDO said:

The usual trend for that possible NW'ly on the GFS 06z with the mini-wave more subdued like the ECM and a satellite low off the main low to the north warming out the uppers. So anything wintry now almost certainly needing altitude:

GFS 06zgfseu-0-180.thumb.png.ea1a54597b0c39e19abd25feaca4dce0.pngECM 0z>844777722_ECE1-192(1).thumb.gif.8e4048f1c6d8bdd340749c4e38b93bb2.gif

So if we look at the uppers, they reflect the downgrade in the mini-wave:

06z>1871776342_gfseu-1-198(1).thumb.png.5ca4044b63f38b52a2dbbcc9f369409c.png 0z>931764915_gfseu-1-204(2).thumb.png.663ea5cba17e8bdf5441bde232413bab.png

So shorter colder flow moderated less cool. Looks like similar to ECM with milder uppers from D9.

I find this post (term Downgrade) odd, Yeah the uppers have been modified in line with surface pressure. 

I would only call uppers being lower a downgrade if the same flow was present and at days 7 that's always unlikely. 

Until we get a longer flow from the north west like a typical 2 day toppler there won't be anything to downgrade or upgrade, okay at attitude in Scotland but that's it really. When the pattern break their will be a two day toppler, just a matter of when really.

 

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Looking at the latest Cohen blog:

Quote

I believed a troposphere-stratosphere-troposphere (T-S-T) coupling event with a strong PV/positive AO was likely.  From this week’s geopotential height anomalies (PCH) plot the cycle is now complete.  The tropospheric precursor (positive AO) occurred for all of early January, the strong PV peaked last week, and the downward propagation has now reached the surface.  When the PCH anomalies couple from the stratosphere to the troposphere this could lead to long lived surface AO anomalies consistent with the sign of the PCHs.  In this case with coupling of cold PCHs, the AO could remain predominantly in the positive phase for up to two months.  source: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

 

He seems to favour this at the moment but remains hopeful there will be a strat disruption in February, but nothing major. I have also noted on the Twitter'sphere that the WWB is likely strat coupling which would adhere to the Cohen theory. It seems that the very strong sPV has been the downfall of this winter, which logically is no surprise, and that possibly we are in a long-term pattern...

...the winter is not quite over yet and we can only hope that the disruption does occur and not too late to just ruin Spring!

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Stormy high pressure rinse reapet as the cold just circles round the pole.. Unfortunately you would need something proper to break out of this pattern.. Although it is a normal winter pattern to have a setup like this.. Just one that does not really favour true cold.. 

06z GFS ramps up the storm potential with the south and west really in the firing line.. Thankfully so far this winter the rain has just stopped in time before the Thames has burst.. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Climate Man said:

For those that like storms, Monday night beginning to look really rough across all models. May warrant its own thread shortly as there is consistency there now.

gfs-0-162.png

30 Year since Burns Day Storm 25-1-1990 - 26-1-1990

Rrea00119900126.thumb.gif.abdd342bfc04b48f43280078caeeff86.gif

 

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2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Decent barring the recent storms!
 

23636048-0-image-a-64_1579527872464.jpg
WWW.DAILYMAIL.CO.UK

Flights to London, Newcastle and other major UK cities were cancelled as Storm Gloria slammed into the Spanish coastline. In Denia, Alicante, the sea was filmed rushing into the town and surrounding cars

Look at all the snow though. I know it's at elevation, but we've not seen anything like that here all winter, even over higher ground. Sums it up really.


Nothing especially cold showing on the D10 ECM ensembles either:

image.thumb.png.2b924d15c73a0ebf3ac147c783f867dc.png

Seeya later January.

I have a holiday home in South East Spain and between the severe storm in early December and the one yesterday the weather has been glorious, the temperature on Boxing day reached 27c some 10c above normal, it cooled down afterwards but remained sunny until the storms arrived on Sunday.

That's the upside of a Bartlet, terrible miserable winter weather here and summer weather in Spain, thank God I am retired so can enjoy.

Just a note on yesterday's heavy snowfalls in Spain, yes they were on high ground but 1800 feet is hardly a mountain so they had a nice short spell of winter before summer arrives next week.

Andy

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Yes - Cumbria potential ppn down to 600ft asl Sunday.

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Remarkable mild predicted for the start of February on ECM ensembles. 10C is the average midday temperature for several days, and a good cluster at 12/13C, daily maxes likely to be a degree or two higher still. Almost no runs even remotely cold, and that's from 51 ensemble members. Daffodils galore I'd think, if the wind doesn't blow them over.

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

Not necessarily a wash-out but I'd imagine the rainfall totals will be high further north given the projected pattern.

ensemble-rrrcum-london.gif

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1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Remarkable mild predicted for the start of February on ECM ensembles. 10C is the average midday temperature for several days, and a good cluster at 12/13C, daily maxes likely to be a degree or two higher still. Almost no runs even remotely cold, and that's from 51 ensemble members. Daffodils galore I'd think, if the wind doesn't blow them over.

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

Not necessarily a wash-out but I'd imagine the rainfall totals will be high further north given the projected pattern.

ensemble-rrrcum-london.gif

Horrific.

For the 1st time since 2004 when i joined TWO i am not even bothering to look at WZ in mid Jan.

Have a look at the chart i just posted in the moan thread.

Coldies, we have  major problems!!

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30 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Horrific.

For the 1st time since 2004 when i joined TWO i am not even bothering to look at WZ in mid Jan.

Have a look at the chart i just posted in the moan thread.

Coldies, we have  major problems!!

As poor as it's ever been, and that's saying something. Hopes of change for Feb were never really founded on much and they are fading away now as the PV barrels on.

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On the face of it this looks like an ok run, more in the way of WWA up towards Northern Canada and western Greenland.

Half decent NWly for us.

 

 

gfsnh-0-246.png

gfsnh-1-252.png

Edited by snowray

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Nasty storm if it verifies:

anim_syf4.gif

More robust upper trough over the Azores so maybe better heights upstream on this run, at least for a while:

gfseu-0-252.thumb.png.e71781ba31f61b84a8d8405767ede85d.png

May sustain a better colder flow. All subject to change as very fluid ATM.

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8 minutes ago, snowray said:

On the face of it this looks like an ok run, more in the way of WWA up towards Northern Canada and western Greenland.

Half decent NWly for us.

 

 

gfsnh-0-246.png

gfsnh-1-252.png

True, but will down grade nearer the time as short wave features appear at the base of the trough which will mix out the colder air.

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Not a bad run really in the context of this Winter. Especially if like me you like cold wind and snow/sleet/rain 🙂 Plenty of PM shots and northern areas with some elevation would see some snow for sure, maybe even to lower levels at times.

No doubt the ECM will be along later to burst this little bubble of optimism but I'll enjoy it till then.

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Plenty of snow/sleet showers around particularly in the north and Wales, the colder spell extended, blizzards in the Scottish Ski resorts, proper dumping up there.

gfs-0-294.thumb.png.3d897a0c784097c767faac978849a8cb.pnggfs-1-294.thumb.png.1c12b136bb50a85bc72b0397a751e487.png

gfs-2-294.thumb.png.ccd2976e50a51f6d93e82221c3bdabb7.pnggfs-16-294.thumb.png.54adcb0cc1d7f8a8b60aeafdd4089327.png

Edited by snowray

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