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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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1 hour ago, Cuban Zebra said:

This is model related, just a different one we’re used to. Could this contribute to a slow down in the jet stream that we all Crave?

off01_temp1.jpg
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Last week, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued their outlook covering February, March, and April. Warmer than normal temperature are forecast from the Easte

 

I doubt it. Great LRF based on the big 3 forecast models 

anom_in_glbz700Sea-1.png
WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

-spread the word- Half of winter is already behind us. This is usually the time when we take a first look at spring, to see what the early projections are and what to expect. We are also going to have a look...

 

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Yes, next week;s 24-48 hour chillier NW'ly spell still present across the models and of course plenty of detail to firm up in the coming days.

It does seem as though the HP-dominated benign spell will return for the start of February and the early part of the month looks between the more unsettled and active Atlantic and the HP regime to the south and south east so mild air for us all for most of the time.

The signal for a break in that pattern towards the end of February remains and I suspect March in particular will be very different to this month and next month.

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31 minutes ago, Downburst said:

I doubt it. Great LRF based on the big 3 forecast models 

anom_in_glbz700Sea-1.png
WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

-spread the word- Half of winter is already behind us. This is usually the time when we take a first look at spring, to see what the early projections are and what to expect. We are also going to have a look...

 

Didn’t these muppets predict an ice-age last year? 

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Just now, Beanz said:

Didn’t these muppets predict an ice-age last year? 

Lol, they show all the big three, ECMWF, Met Office etc. March/April/May predictions and make a reasonable summary view. Pretty close outputs.

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14 minutes ago, Beanz said:

Didn’t these muppets predict an ice-age last year? 

Actually they were pretty accurate for Europe, as a whole, and UK. I found their updates last Winter pretty good, and insightful.

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43 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Standard 46 update  .....

Winter's over? 😆

18z GFS hardly inspiring, bar brief windows on Sunday, then next Tuesday/Weds for the north, which could get cold enough certainly for the hills to get a covering of snow, maybe pushing it though to lower levels. Good news for the Scottish ski industry. The trend of the models of digging a trough in the Atlantic by day 10 and raising heights over SW Europe is not a good signal either. 

Edited by Nick F

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Isn’t the uk weather dump? Just few days ago the models was looking quite promising and it was buzzing in here and then pretty much like the flick of a switch it’s all gone and back to square one with this so called winter. Still time yet I suppose and if we do actually get something decent I suppose the shocking winter so far would be a distant memory or is that just a dream. Still the chance that early next week could upgrade but I wouldn’t bet my house on that unfortunately 

Edited by markw2680
Error

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A fairly cold westerly on the 18z, a few lucky places might even get their snow fix early next week, probably on higher ground but might be a few surprises north of the M4 (of course).

gfseu-0-192.thumb.png.e82a3405f52959e83ed24bb986d0ecf7.pnggfseu-1-192.thumb.png.3b8cbf6e6f33aed57b12e54dd93752cd.png

 

186-574UK.gif

198-574UK.gif

198-780UK.gif

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Finally some interest in the 18z,of course JFF 😜

gfsnh-0-360.thumb.png.3f8739776f5192a4dfdf28f2056d30c4.png

now can we get a Scandi high...

@nick sussex,the UKMO best of the bunch at day Severn.

ukm2.2020012712_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.efebd0bc30376dcd38b53c0b43be599c.pnggfs2.2020012712_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.8c74aca7a5e72111acd54c5a81e7ee6f.pngecm2.2020012712_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.bd26ca0dc60e12287883a4db17771ffa.png

 

Edited by Allseasons-si

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8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Finally some interest in the 18z,of course JFF 😜

gfsnh-0-360.thumb.png.3f8739776f5192a4dfdf28f2056d30c4.png

now can we get a Scandi high.

 

Unfortunately not much cold air to tap onto, typical. 

gfs-1-384.thumb.png.374b39deea7ffc267c0dd73da6e1ad72.png

Nice to see though, could a decent easterly develop in February after all? Something like Feb 2018?:oldrolleyes:

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1 minute ago, snowray said:

Unfortunately not much cold air to tap onto, typical. 

gfs-1-384.thumb.png.374b39deea7ffc267c0dd73da6e1ad72.png

Nice to see though, could a decent easterly develop in February after all? Something like Feb 2018?:oldrolleyes:

I certainly  wouldn't worry about the uppers at that range or an easterly,we need to see if the models repeat this scenario in future runs.

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3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I certainly  wouldn't worry about the uppers at that range or an easterly,we need to see if the models repeat this scenario in future runs.

Control run looking fab out in la la land I must say.😍

gens-1-1-384.png

gens-1-0-384.png

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The gfs 18z was a mild outlier,in fact this set looks colder than the 12z after the initial cold snap around the 28th/29th

graphe3_1000_265_30___.thumb.png.1247b4d306655d9821c567cca28c87e0.png

also i have noticed that there is a secondary warming towards the end of the gfs op/control,the pv is getting knocked around a bit esp the control.

anim_abk5.thumb.gif.f80e7ab1d6eb82fef97dbf05ce133375.gif

 

 

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And a final one from me regarding the MJO,it seems that the orbits go into the COD(cirlce of death) after nearly getting into phase 8 but they look to pull out of the COD and spiral into phase 6 again,this could possibly head back into phase 7 and on wards again

gefs/cfs and ecm.

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.thumb.gif.635eb0ef8884844dae0cb0360127195b.gifCFSO_phase_small.thumb.gif.6b7928d24888c1bd1e1373e03feee648.gifECMF_phase_51m_small.thumb.gif.2102bc3e3596b2a392a1de58b2f5c9e9.gif

 

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Looking at the ECM day ten chart, parts of the South of England could see temperatures into the mid to high teens.

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9 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Looking at the ECM day ten chart, parts of the South of England could see temperatures into the mid to high teens.

Yes the 850s are quite high for a very small slither of the south coast but it also looks cloudy so I would think low double figures more likely IF correct.

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It's not just cloudy the front is bringing heavy rain. But all academic

ecmwf-deterministic-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-0407200.thumb.png.b22c38592b050ee9ac98ece9b48967ba.pngecmwf-deterministic-uk-t2m_c-0407200.thumb.png.29a3d7e36c4b50451fe61e6732647ed8.png

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Hi gang ,thats the big question every time with day 10 charts  , yes south could be Balmy or take it all further south and it could be game on for some wintry ness. So again today we have no real Boom  ,but could all change tonight at 7pm ish ,but the hunt is still on ,possibility of a cold trough setting up to our east in time for February, low 850 s and and warm sea temp some beefy snow showers PERhaps ,cheers .

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Those many D10 ECM runs promising something brief but cold for the North, another fail. The mini-wave, now barely a ripple:

ECM>ECE1-192.thumb.gif.c4a0a9bb94b37af7d4b1d18a7e6459f2.gif GFS>438121649_gfseu-0-192(2).thumb.png.f62bce75774deb2260d0fe816f6cb768.png GEM>gemeu-0-192.thumb.png.ff09314448c679def4a4bf2456555253.png

The upper air is moderated accordingly.The GFS remains more potent with a 48h cold flow of uppers, pretty standard winter fayre even in crap winters but worthy of a mention this season. The GEM is now blowing up that low so washes out the uppers (as per previous GFS run), so maybe ignore this GEM run.

The GEFS post-D10 mainly zonal with the jet running through the UK, in fact the op is one of the better runs which is sad in itself. The mean:

anim_fgt7.gif

Still no sign of forcing, MJO or whatever. The tPV looks like it is winding down, so as we go through February chances improving with even moderate forcing for that bottled cold to flush south somewhere in the NH:

D4>gensnh-21-1-96.thumb.png.d3709a942c5f1e20007af200eb29ae49.png D16>1946938188_gensnh-21-1-384(2).thumb.png.7b5c6f57c7db7c9c088407f246c57efb.png

^^^Very similar design viz pattern, but maybe less strength; straw clutching it may indeed be!

 

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Signs on the gefs spread that two weeks time may see a more favourable tpv shape wrt to a northerly flow of sorts .....been there before .........

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That's some cold front on the day 7 ECM by the way. 

Would be some nasty weather along the squall line.

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Terrible ECM which takes us to the turn of the month. If we get to the positions shown then it's at least 10 days from there before there could be any favourable shift from the pattern 

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