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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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spacer.pngTableaux GEFS 12z

spacer.pngGEFS Ensembles 12z

spacer.pngGEFS Control 12z @216

spacer.pngGEFS uppers 12z @216

A bit of interest from the GEFS for 28th / 29th Jan still. ( but can those uppers deliver anything away from high ground ? )

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ECM ensembles, first T144:

image.thumb.jpg.561ab45ae9bf6549d0c8a13a5259f245.jpg

It is maybe easier to see the things that are forcing when everything is averaged out a bit, and we can see Azores high displaced west, and in the far SW a low which is important in putting pressure on the trop vortex to move east.  FFWD to T240, and the mean is less helpful as it is a bit of smear of everything:

image.thumb.jpg.aeafadcb5019c14bc5ee70d0796461ca.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.41e642002a1c2651ba0a73f178e2c69d.jpg

For me, it is a bit too much WNW than NW, but as always it is what the individual runs show not the mean that will happen...

Spread telling though at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.f1ba4d3254e03f5fc4886dc43018837b.jpg

Very low uncertainty for UK and immediately upstream, looks like this northwesterly will happen, it is just a question of how cold and the exact direction, could make all the difference between snow and rain as I reckon it is going to be marginal!

Edited by Mike Poole
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40 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

as for any format of blocking in the region you mention. ..looks at best a complete  falasy. ...

Not really a complete fallacy (which I think you meant)...check out of recent times Jan 2011 (1042mb) to the north west of the UK, Feb 2012 (1042mb) centred near Scandinavia and Dec 2016 (1041mb) centred just to the east of the UK though not on quite the same intensity can be achieved in more favourable locations.

Edited by Froze were the Days
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1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

Logging on to this thread, tomorrow morning, could well be interesting...20 pages of 'BOOM!' or 1 page of 'winter is over' posts? Take your pick and place your bets!:yahoo:

I’m going to be like the models and go for a half way house. That’s 10 pages of BOOMS and YESSSSSSS’S and 10 pages of ‘winters over’ and ‘March is too late for snow’. Although most days I wake up we are still on the same page as the day before?‍♂️

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1 minute ago, Decemberof2010 said:

I’m going to be like the models and go for a half way house. That’s 10 pages of BOOMS and YESSSSSSS’S and 10 pages of ‘winters over’ and ‘March is too late for snow’. Although most days I wake up we are still on the same page as the day before?‍♂️

Agreed!!!  ECM240h GFS384h..the carrot at the end of the stick scenario/La la land for us coldies.

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EPS 12z. .500-GEOPOTENTIALS

 

no brain science  required! !..

stark. ..

in the polar Atlantic  flow! !.

and the thermodynamics  are of good sorts also. 

options  'firmly ' on the table for a notable north  westerly outbreak. .and a quite noted one of length  (potentially ).

 

and getting the flow in....will be then the only time to begin calculations  of upper airs and forms  of precipitation! !!

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_37.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_9.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_eu_8.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_eu_10 (1).png

Edited by tight isobar
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Interesting to note that the ECM 12z was a mild outlier at the end of the run, not sure if the ens have been posted yet. Might see something a bit colder turn up in the mornings run, fingers crossed!

 

graphe_ens3.png

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7 minutes ago, snowray said:

Interesting to note that the ECM 12z was a mild outlier at the end of the run, not sure if the ens have been posted yet. Might see something a bit colder turn up in the mornings run, fingers crossed!

 

graphe_ens3.png

that's not just a late  'outlier '..

it's effing  vertical! !!!!

 

any medium  to longer term forecasts. .ie- late January /February. .

can only be of medium at best. ..to perhaps low confidence  as a whole. ..as we stand! !!!

Edited by tight isobar
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now over to the fickle  18z gfs. .

have you got the minerals! !???

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45 minutes ago, snowray said:

Interesting to note that the ECM 12z was a mild outlier at the end of the run, not sure if the ens have been posted yet. Might see something a bit colder turn up in the mornings run, fingers crossed!

 

graphe_ens3.png

ECM D9 today compared to D10 yesterday 12z:

397181680_ECE1-216(1).thumb.gif.cd70770e5d3570415109702050ce5591.gif150580334_ECE1-240(1).thumb.gif.2df45e38160a26424fad2f35a90b1a6d.gif

GEM and GFS at T216:

912997812_gemeu-0-216(1).thumb.png.54414c1dc8ad7056b0c9bf943bde5599.png141413421_gfseu-0-216(1).thumb.png.fb847df5f93a707479134c3f2937e6c3.png

ECM last two D10 charts were probably overdoing the heights and the GEM and GFS moved towards it, and agree. I expected the 12z from ECM to just adjust that LP cell exiting the US east conus, but the 12z phased it slower! That low should drive the mini-ridge east forcing the colder flow (as per GFR/GEM) but it stalls and even post-D10 the low and ridge remain to our NW rather than on their west to east march! New spot by ECM, or simply ECM D9-10 inconsistency? The mean supports that feature, so puzzling, but I have seen whole suites get it wrong before, so low confidence ATM in ECM D10 (as always?). 

ECM D10 mean: EDE1-240.thumb.gif.91642a8d79e958354b5f82f43ae8797e.gif

Pretty awful...

Edited by IDO
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39 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

now over to the fickle  18z gfs. .

have you got the minerals! !???

Any positivity on the 18z?

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3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Any positivity on the 18z?

image.thumb.png.4e39a01e2a69cfaa2618124d15894f70.png

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very much continuation  of the theme. .

and of course 850s  will be tempered. .although  perhaps not quite as usual. .

and again let's get the flow in...the look  at the deeper dynamics! !

it's cold and frosty  hp. ..transferring to milder wetter mobility. ..then I'm quite sure a deflection  to such as the snap! !?..

I'm going for a potent  north westerly. ..with a possibility  of switching northerlys.

whatever. ..some meat on the bone. [email protected] 

gfs-0-204.png

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17 minutes ago, shaky said:

Any positivity on the 18z?

gfs-1-216.png?18spacer.png

yes , GFS 18z looks ok @216 with a Northwesterly flow ( but nothing to get over excited about just yet )

Edited by Jeremy Shockey
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snow down to very modest levels  via 18z. ..with amicable upper airs  to boot. .

again all in the mix after the slightly  milder damper interlude. .

could be a rare classic  polar  maritime incursion. ..and I think that would be the very least we deserve! !!

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I’m not saying it will happen but if it does it say you will get more chance of the white stuff to more locations with nw winds rather than northerly winds as they tend to just deliver to coasts etc whereas nw push them quite well into the country in certain areas. All we need then is for this to verify and obviously be cold enough 

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Pub run = wet   in mid to long range   subject to change obviously    

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57 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

very much continuation  of the theme. .

and of course 850s  will be tempered. .although  perhaps not quite as usual. .

and again let's get the flow in...the look  at the deeper dynamics! !

it's cold and frosty  hp. ..transferring to milder wetter mobility. ..then I'm quite sure a deflection  to such as the snap! !?..

I'm going for a potent  north westerly. ..with a possibility  of switching northerlys.

whatever. ..some meat on the bone. [email protected] 

gfs-0-204.png

That’s 10 days away nearly, seriously 

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4 minutes ago, Beanz said:

That’s 10 days away nearly, seriously 

Always ten days away, well nine soon I agree with TI definate change coming as the last two dry crisp clear days illustrate without looking at any models. Sorry mods but give up on reliability when pessimism, solar, mjo involved after such a winter. Predicting a cold outlook for valentines, snow loving floats my boat ❤☃️

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52 minutes ago, Beanz said:

That’s 10 days away nearly, seriously 

seriously? ??

it's backed by plenty of data. .and a highly  likely /evolutionary  trait! !..

so what's your point! !????

 

edit;  I wish some would actually  back there posts with some data/synoptics. ..more in depth knowledge /basis! !!

Edited by tight isobar
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14 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

seriously? ??

it's backed by plenty of data. .and a highly  likely /evolutionary  trait! !..

so what's your point! !????

 

edit;  I wish some would actually  back there posts with some data/synoptics. ..more in depth knowledge /basis! !!

Is the point to be made that the 10 day charts seldom make it into the reliable? Especially if they're showing what people want to see? In which case they would be numerous to mention in all fairness!!!!!!! 

Edited by Snowfish2
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