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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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48 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I doubt it as the Atlantic will simply bring the next weather system in and probably the next after that. The 500 mb anomaly charts also strongly suggest in both the 6-10 day and 10-14 day outlooks at that height for the Atlantic to be, for most of the time, our weather suppllier.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

It’s just ridiculous how long we’ve had to wait for a decent spell of drier weather....only for it to get booted away and replaced with a trough again. Terrible.

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3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It’s just ridiculous how long we’ve had to wait for a decent spell of drier weather....only for it to get booted away and replaced with a trough again. Terrible.

Yes, and replaced by cold rain for us in the south at sea-level:

anim_lnw6.gif

Even a colder than average NW'ly is not much use for southern snow lovers. The Downs and other hills may get a coating from the initial cold flow around D8, assuming it verifies for once. Even the north on this run after D10 will struggle to see settled snow TBH (more of a westerly). Then at the end of FI the trend for anomaly UK heights is maintained. So February may start mild as January did (SW'ly for the south)? The mean suggests from D12 for a slow push north of the Iberian high though rather subdued, so for many a westerly zonal flow (worse of both worlds):

anim_osl1.gif 2m temps: graphe6_1000_305_154___.thumb.png.be324ef79dd0f6bb3c482c8a1d27f0c9.png

Nothing resembling a cold spell in my locale if you take the mean^^^.

Maybe at the end of FI the tPV splitting, one Siberia (daughter) and the main Canada. So that may coincide with the heights building to our south? 

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1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

I'm struck by how long the northwesterly lasts on this one, GFS 12z T270:

image.thumb.jpg.6d8c41ab52562d907540a0c0b9e98b78.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.72069d7d276a8b78484b90a323e02b20.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.2e3e3c375542e6904481b2cdf02a604f.jpg

That low to the far SW seems key to prolonging the NW-SE jet.

Complete with warm sector to limit any snow to the hills! 😞

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18 minutes ago, Alexis said:

Complete with warm sector to limit any snow to the hills! 😞

lol...it's a jet warm sector...

the jet in itself highly unlikely  to even be in that baseposition  by 30/01/2020. .

let alone any possible  warm/cold sector geographical  pin pointing. ..

 

'God sakes'

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The cold brought forward on tonight's ECM. All models agree now on a spell of cold weather from next Sunday! The duration still up for grabs..

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

Having said that uppers are not great at 192hrs! Is the gfs over egging how cold the uppers will be?!

 

Edited by January Snowstorm

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Well!  ECM T192:

image.thumb.jpg.22c8d839a1051d7cdd2f19ea532ffbae.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.0ff5a2a1c4a49cd6efa7795bd35cf976.jpg

The model runs have seemed to converged on some kind of northwesterly cold snap for the UK, and ECM follows suit.

Power to add?  We will see...

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The ecm 144 hrs is very similar to the UKMO in not phasing that low off the Eastern seaboard as can be seen for comparison to this mornings

12z 144 v 06z 168 

ECH1-144.thumb.gif.a72ea77f496d25d3fe9507826776f779.gifECH1-168.thumb.gif.81f8471791345ec22b7238e4272b98c7.gif

^this is what we want to see in terms of getting that NW'ly flow more pronounced and getting those cooler/colder temps in

UN144-21.thumb.gif.fbd7e7b61e4f39f24f8e3bf163e49b82.gif

this is better from the ecm,trough/low still not phasing with the parent one even at 192.

ECH1-192.thumb.gif.af1407c86594f0372f0b3efff953f773.gif

 

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nw  flow inbound via ecm 12th. .this now looking  a sold format. .

and on advice   it's unworthy  talking of 850hpa pretty 24/48 hours b4!!

 

and to boot...that's 1 icy shelf  of sourcing. ..even from an Atlantic  perspective! !!!

ECM1-192.gif

ECM0-192.gif

Edited by tight isobar

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The 12z ECM is an improvement compared to last night's run but the uppers indicate just rain with a bit of hill snow. At least it will be cooler.

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38 minutes ago, Alexis said:

Complete with warm sector to limit any snow to the hills! 😞

Yes, yes indeed I`m very sceptical of this occurring, very sceptical indeed!!!

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3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Logging on to this thread, tomorrow morning, could well be interesting...20 pages of 'BOOM!' or 1 page of 'winter is over' posts? Take your pick and place your bets!:yahoo:

You forgot "POTENTIAL" Pete🤔

Anyway the ecm phases the low/trough over the UK at day ten,could it run into cold air as it approaches?

ECE1-240.thumb.gif.677a5ea55ac1a33ac8a67495bdb31932.gifECE0-240.thumb.gif.13f0dc4b24f42c16789695fc517848ae.gif

a long way off but the "POTENTIAL" is there😁

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4 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

There’s absolutely no point in looking at uppers or temperatures etc at this range, let’s just get a nw flow into the country for a start and see where we go from there. It’s absolutely Baltic to the nw at the mo so could well be fun and games if we actually get to this point

Couldn't agree more. The ECM 12z at T240 has this:

image.thumb.jpg.8d263119cddcbba25373b3ac3564d258.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.dfc2f10429adc96ae591b6093526bac4.jpg

The reason the T850s are poor is due to lows up north meaning the air has had to take a westerly diversion across the Atlantic, they will be subject to change at this range, as indeed might the whole lot(!) but there's only cold coming from this point in the next couple of days.  But that is the end of the run.

Be good to get this northwesterly into the reliable so that we can talk about the specifics, but not yet, too much uncertainty.

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Don't like the ecm, uppers too warm because too much influence from the Atlantic, the air spends too much time in the Atlantic so it warms up for any snowfall to be confined to the higher hills. 

What does it take to get a true Northerly with Maritime Arctic Air flooding down over the country. 

Last time we saw that was 2nd half of Dec 2010.

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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Be good to get this northwesterly into the reliable so that we can talk about the specifics, but not yet, too much uncertainty.

Quiet right,the uncertainty is around the 120 mark as regards to what happens to the lows off the NE'ern seaboard as i mentioned above

we need these lows cut off and stalled as much as possible for a clean NW'ly flow otherwise the lows phase out west amplifying a ridge ahead of them.

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10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Pretty uninspiring outputs which have moved from dismal to just mediocre .

The ECM is reluctant to drive the pattern se and the depth of cold even allowing for the source looks like a lot of cool rain and some snow to higher elevations .

Admittedly tonight’s outputs are an improvement on the last few days but really that’s not saying much .

 

But surely Nick heights lowering over Europe is a good sign. I mean we haven't seen this for over 6 weeks. No proper heights to our North but potential is there and we haven't been able to use that word since late November 

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I think the main thing we need to look out for is low pressure developing to our east south east rather than trying to get high pressure north or north west cuz that simply isn’t going to happen atm, then the whole lot of purple to our north could move fractionally east and bingo we would be in a proper cold n to nw flow, I think this is the way forward imo. As others above have said the lows developing from the us need to remain cut off for as long as possible to move everything that bit further east

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58 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

a sight to behold @1049 hpa. .

a rarity  in its own right!!!

 

ECU1-24.gif

It would be a sight to behold if it was anchored near Scandinavia or to the north but in it's current position it's keeping us dry for a few days...nothing more nothing less and going by the latest ECM it's influence won't last that long.

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not wanting to put a dampener on things but this evening's ECM I suspect is a cold outlier.looking at the AO and NAO nothing suggests in any  way colder weather with the AO still very positive and NAO also Similar

ao.sprd2.gif

nao.sprd2.gif

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2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

It would be a sight to behold if it was anchored near Scandinavia or to the north but in it's current position it's keeping us dry for a few days...nothing more nothing less and going by the latest ECM it's influence won't last that long.

in meaning it's a rare situ. .

for a1049er  anchored over the British  Isles! !!

it was worth a mention. 

as for any format of blocking in the region you mention. ..looks at best a complete  falasy. ...

let alone with such height figured HP

 

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Hi gang ,ECM brings us some hope , its like a dog with a bone ,that bone being north Atlantic lows hopefully dragging down Eventual some sort of pay back for the snow less winter to date. Not my usuall words but hey ho here we go  ,a garden path leading to Snow  we hope  .just need something in the reliable and of course depending on your location and LUCK , So is it STellas bacon butty or bread and dripping  ,over to the GFS ,cheers .

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EC would likely bring some snow but reserved for NW Britain with decent altitude (at a guess 250m).

That said, it might upgrade closer to the time so at least a smidgen of interest for some 🙂

 

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