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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Well, after a little break I have to admit it’s looking a little bleak for the foreseeable, I’m not a fan of late Feb/March freezes as slush becomes an issue in the sun - this year I would still love to see that though and we still have chances that could pop up earlier in Feb !! 

Not writing off this year, but next year looks far better with E QBO and coming out of Solar minimum. Happily write off this winter if next is going to be epic !! ?

Edited by Ali1977
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New blog entry up which will hopefully paint a broader picture. This winter has always for me been about February having most wintry potential.  The evolution in the MJO and wider low freque

Hi this is the senior systems override manager for ECMWF Ive hit the big red button. All systems go.

COMPLAINT LETTER TO WINTER Dear winter I have been your sincere customer for many years but the patience of waiting is really running low now. I started my contract with you in autumn hoping it w

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9 minutes ago, karyo said:

The models look grim once again!

Any update on the progress of the MJO?

image.thumb.gif.01fbd38478c7008d39589720a30e6552.gif

Yep - over done as usual....now just a brief skip through 7 at decreasing amplitude before back into the COD again. I’m done with this ‘winter’.

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14 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.gif.01fbd38478c7008d39589720a30e6552.gif

Yep - over done as usual....now just a brief skip through 7 at decreasing amplitude before back into the COD again. I’m done with this ‘winter’.

Thanks for the update. Yes that's pitiful ?

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16 minutes ago, karyo said:

Thanks for the update. Yes that's pitiful ?

I know that MJO phases 4 and 5 are bad for cold in the UK, but phases 6 to 8 are more conducive to colder patterns for the UK.  In the closing days of this month the MJO is forecast to reach phase 0 (the circle in the middle).  What does that mean for the UK.  Is it as bad as phases 4 and 5 for cold in the UK?

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1 minute ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I know that MJO phases 4 and 5 are bad for cold in the UK, but phases 6 to 8 are more conducive to colder patterns for the UK.  In the closing days of this month the MJO is forecast to reach phase 0 (the circle in the middle).  What does that mean for the UK.  Is it as bad as phases 4 and 5 for cold in the UK?

Phases 6 to 8 are more promising for cold but it has to have enough strength  (to be as far from the inner circle as possible). 

Sadly, the update posted above shows sharp weakening of the mjo wave as it goes into phase 7 and eventually it just dies  (enters inner circle).

So we have to look elsewhere for cold. Maybe the stratosphere will help but Not for a while yet.

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18 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I know that MJO phases 4 and 5 are bad for cold in the UK, but phases 6 to 8 are more conducive to colder patterns for the UK.  In the closing days of this month the MJO is forecast to reach phase 0 (the circle in the middle).  What does that mean for the UK.  Is it as bad as phases 4 and 5 for cold in the UK?

Circle of death just means no strong MJO phase is active, which usually means it will have zero effect on global patterns. 7-8-1 is good for UK cold, but as @karyo says it needs to be decent amplitude to usually have an effect. Sadly it looks like offering nothing for us at this point.

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18 minutes ago, Nick F said:

With regards to hoping the eQBO will help us out, again, not as clear cut, yes the QBO is easterly high up in the stratosphere, but it still has yet to descend lower down into the lower stratosphere and certainly far from denting the strong zonal winds at high latitudes - though signs it will do this through February, so may help weaken the PV with time and perhaps allow northern blocking as we end winter.

 

Hi Nick, with regards to the eQBO, if that arrives late winter and is possibly too late to promote favorable blocking, would that impact on our summer? ie blocking be more likely and if so, would that hint at a warmer summer or cooler one ?

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Good morning, peeps!:hi:

I'm not a fan of wintertime inversions (not since the Clean Air Acts, of the 1970s did away with green fog, anyway!) so I look-forward to the day when the sun carries enough oomph to break them...

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Does anyone know how/if the burgeoning heat, over the Eastern Mediterranean, will affect our weather, during the upcoming Spring? It is afterall much closer to us than the MJO...???

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7 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Hi Nick, with regards to the eQBO, if that arrives late winter and is possibly too late to promote favorable blocking, would that impact on our summer? ie blocking be more likely and if so, would that hint at a warmer summer or cooler one ?

Good question, and difficult to answer definitively, depends exactly where the blocking sets up I suppose. If it's over Greenland/Iceland, a southerly tracking jet underneath may not bode well, though depends whether the corresponding -NAO is west based or east based. West based wouldn't be so bad, as we'd be on the warm side of Atlantic troughing, east based not so great. Block over Scandi not too bad in summer with an easterly flow being dry and warm.

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GFS now moves over mostly to the UKMO solution with no phasing until 156 >> -

Should be a colder run now with snow for the NW / NI etc at some point ~192-204 ish

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Interesting chart this from ICON at 120t. Rather than looking for a change from the NW , maybe look further south. The upper low over Iberia eventually splits the huge Atlantic / Euro Rex high. Going forward, not sure how that would eventually pan out weather wise but would at least keep the moist laden westerlies at bay over the British Isles and further time to dry out. Surface flow would be quite cold off the continent. Just looking at an other angle to break the dead lock as forecast charts to change from the North shown by all models at day 10 and beyond never seem to come off.

C

ICOOPEU06_120_1.png

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44 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:
2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Good morning, peeps!:hi:

I'm not a fan of wintertime inversions (not since the Clean Air Acts, of the 1970s did away with green fog, anyway!) so I look-forward to the day when the sun carries enough oomph to break them...

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

 

The sun may soon have enough strength to break any low cloud or fog but it will do nothing to improve the high pollution levels that are getting trapped under it. Many European cities have recorded alarming levels of air pollution in the last week. Sadly in the UK, there is not much info about air pollution levels.

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The trend for a change to a cold Northwesterly in a weeks time remains. Looks quite potent actually for parts of the West and North. Heights are lowering over Europe and as I said yesterday it could yet mark a change to something more notable??

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Some differences upstream with the GFS 06 hrs run having a more amplified low exiting the ne of Canada compared to the earlier 00hrs run.

The phasing issue with the smaller low ne of Florida is important . It’s very likely that will phase but that needs to happen as late as possible .

The cold air associated with the troughing to the nw is inching se , as soon as the phase happens that stops and your base point for where the cold is by dint of that further nw .

So a later phase means the colder air is already further se. 

 

Edited by nick sussex
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33 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Interesting chart this from ICON at 120t. Rather than looking for a change from the NW , maybe look further south. The upper low over Iberia eventually splits the huge Atlantic / Euro Rex high. Going forward, not sure how that would eventually pan out weather wise but would at least keep the moist laden westerlies at bay over the British Isles and further time to dry out. Surface flow would be quite cold off the continent. Just looking at an other angle to break the dead lock as forecast charts to change from the North shown by all models at day 10 and beyond never seem to come off.

C

ICOOPEU06_120_1.png

Looking at the more amplified early charts that SteveMurr posts may be good short-term for that trough but conversely on most GEFS and the GEM where it was modelled on the 0z it builds back a high close to the UK and  it means after D10 less cold for FI compared to the 0z due to the where the high sits. Of course that could change, but for the longer term I think the early amplification will have a net effect of milder runs as a whole. GEM:

T216gemeu-0-216.thumb.png.20581a385bf8c4a4b1a079d4fc61961c.pngT336gens-0-1-336.thumb.png.287a280bcb24109aef48521dd99968ec.png

GFS T216:gfs-0-216.thumb.png.f35ef098b9f52d109e8f6f2eb7022789.png T294gfs-0-294.thumb.png.23800e49acc42f0a5155718140faab4b.png

T300:gfseu-1-300.thumb.png.d81e4f4f4b4488cd22f1ae0d5387f35b.png

Edited by IDO
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37 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Some differences upstream with the GFS 06 hrs run having a more amplified low exiting the ne of Canada compared to the earlier 00hrs run.

The phasing issue with the smaller low ne of Florida is important . It’s very likely that will phase but that needs to happen as late as possible .

The cold air associated with the troughing to the nw is inching se , as soon as the phase happens that stops and your base point for where the cold is by dint of that further nw .

So a later phase means the colder air is already further se. 

 

Wassat in English please ? 

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10 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Everyone don’t lose hope who’s up for making a spring snowman..

39A5BDBB-0A46-4C32-9EB1-104C097AB51B.jpeg

Wouldn't surprise me. Northern blocking  normally dominates once winter dissappears, expect signs of it from mid February onwards in the models. 

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5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Wouldn't surprise me. Northern blocking  normally dominates once winter dissappears, expect signs of it from mid February onwards in the models. 

Absolutely but it will not be by chance.

image.thumb.png.621a1a2b1df8717d3cf43860bc32a548.pngimage.thumb.png.a5e6da2620f466bf0ff42768318ef5d3.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Absolutely but it will not be by chance.

image.thumb.png.621a1a2b1df8717d3cf43860bc32a548.pngimage.thumb.png.a5e6da2620f466bf0ff42768318ef5d3.png

Will this warming happen though or get watered down again?

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2 minutes ago, karyo said:

Will this warming happen though or get watered down again?

I think there will be a technical and decisive SSW but mid-late February, co-inciding with another MJO wave and will deliver a sting in the tail of winter and a cold spring.

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