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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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21 minutes ago, LRD said:

Yep good post

ECM is the best run and that is saying something for how 'meh' the forecast looks for those of us in lowland Southern England

The IOD is something I will also keep an eye out for in the autumn, along with...

QBO, ENSO, SST's, MJO and bloody BBC, HRT, S&M, AC/DC and anything else that will no doubt scupper cold for winter 2020/21. Yes this is the first 'winter is over' post for next year!! 😉😕

 

Out of that lot, I can only say that I'm pretty sure the QBO will be favourable!

Joking aside, I remember listing some of these teleconnection factors that can affect UK winter, early in the season, but said that not knowing the pecking order was an issue.  My personal pecking order has changed as a result of this winter with, yes, the IOD a new entry straight in at Number 1, but I continue to have a hunch that Atlanitic SSTs are higher up it than most give credit for....I think they may have had something to do with last years fail.  

Edited by Mike Poole

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6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Out of that lot, I can only say that I'm pretty sure the QBO will be favourable!

Joking aside, I remember listing some of these teleconnection factors that can affect UK winter early in the season, but said that not knowing the pecking order was an issue.  My personal pecking order has changed as a result of this winter with, yes, the IOD a new entry straight in at Number 1, but I continue to have a hunch that Atlanitic SSTs are higher up it than most give credit for....I think they may have had something to do with last years fail.  

Ha ha ha! Yeah I'm pretty sure I'm wrong to think the S&M index will lead to anything except more pain for someone or other!

Atlantic SSTs are definitely important too. Whenever we've had a tripole (warm SSTs around Greenland, cooler across the mid-Atlantic and warm again over the tropical Atlantic) it has tended to lead to winters that have been generally cold or, at least, have had one or two significant cold spells

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Good grief, the GEM brings us winds from Cape Verde*. Surely high teens would be reached to the east of high ground with this horror chart:

image.thumb.png.9eda6e52172927189d7ccb47fba2535c.png

The warmest ever January could still be on if the month ends with this

 

*yes, I know, it's the GEM but thought it still worthwhile commenting on

Edited by LRD

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4 minutes ago, LRD said:

Good grief, the GEM brings us winds from Cape Verde*. Surely high teems would be reached to the east of high ground with this horror chart:

image.thumb.png.9eda6e52172927189d7ccb47fba2535c.png

The warmest ever January could still be on if the month ends with this

 

*yes, I know, it's the GEM but thought it still worthwhile commenting on

That really is the true definition chart of a Bartlett.

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29 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That really is the true definition chart of a Bartlett.

Yes def that is a Bartlett...couple of nudges west and East and that is an Azores to East Russian high...a Bartlett

Edited by FiftyShadesofSnow

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6 hours ago, E17boy said:

Good afternoon 

Hi John what are your thoughts as we move towards the end of January and into February. Do you think there is still a chance to scrape something cold from this winter. I know the theme going forward seems to be focussed on a lot of high pressure around .I think a lot of people had expectations of a brekthrogh towards the end of January (which could still happen) we have seen pattern changes happening overnight but to me I can't see anything positive in terms iof cold or snow in the coming days.

i had much hoped that we would see a trend in European temperatures lowering, but still there is nothing drastically cold. The high pressure has been a real spoiler of this winter and experience does say that these highs can be the best for summer but the nightmare of winter. 

I think going forward we need to see some changes happening if we are going to get anything of what's left this winter. 

Hope you all have s great weekend

kind regards 😊

Hi

I am not any kind of expert in anything beyound about 2 weeks or so. Then mainly suggesting how the upper air looks to be heading. As far as those charts (the 500 mb anomaly charts ) suggest then there is little signal for any major change in the upper air pattern as shown by the NOAA issue this evening, see below

Sorry I cannot help you any further than that.

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E735B42F-E4F3-47B5-9804-34E7B467DB1D.thumb.jpeg.76ad511db774610dbfeee2453b0f5f2e.jpeg

A chart to show how crud winter 2019/20 has been for 2/3 of the season. Strong +ve zonal anomalies going back 6 weeks now.

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Interesting ideas of the GEM chart 12z image.thumb.png.7c30b81ac4a87ee5127aa807520766ac.pngimage.thumb.png.47f86d4a3fb1531bbab889e25c9321a0.png

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As bad a winter chart as any. This could be from 1989 or 1998. Pathetic excuse for a winter. Eternal October

image.thumb.png.b6c05a48e0763b5367b84ba9bc2cac06.png

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A long few weeks coming up. Let's hope for a warm spring and a hot summer with copious thunderstorms

The trend over the last couple of days is for a Feb 1998. Certainly no sign of a 1978, 1979, 1985, 1986, 1991, 1996, 2009 or even a 2012 when the SE got caught at the end of an Easterly train that swept Europe

image.thumb.png.9e3d4f7548aa7edaa56f73bd1df5de5e.png

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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I really, desperately hoped I'd be wrong about this winter...

😞

Well you will be right about the winter as a whole - no doubt about that - severely mild winter overall - but i have always thought there will be a sting in the tail and still could be.

image.thumb.png.0e6b628bf780cd825b7d1270bd69b743.png

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And now to bed for me  ,just hoping for a good ECM run in the morning, nice 192 chart ,opening up the cold 850 s from the north and pulling them south with some troughs embedded and some more to follow, we shall soon see ,sweet dreams all .

 

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15 minutes ago, LRD said:

A long few weeks coming up. Let's hope for a warm spring and a hot summer with copious thunderstorms

The trend over the last couple of days is for a Feb 1998. Certainly no sign of a 1978, 1979, 1985, 1986, 1991, 1996, 2009 or even a 2012 when the SE got caught at the end of an Easterly train that swept Europe

image.thumb.png.9e3d4f7548aa7edaa56f73bd1df5de5e.png

Strooth... After a crap 1st half of winter, let's at least hope for a sting in the tale, even if it continues into March. Has much as I like decent summer conditions, the though of spending countless nights stuck under a cooling fan fills me with dread! I will think about summer come May, until then, let's get a cold spell in, even if its only a 5 day affair... I still feel confident of something wintry in the next 6 weeks.... Plenty of time folks... Still some peachy 18z ens also.. 

gens-2-0-252.png

gens-2-1-228.png

gens-11-0-216.png

gens-11-1-216.png

gens-12-0-240.png

gens-12-0-324.png

gens-14-0-264.png

gens-14-1-264.png

gens-15-0-276.png

gens-15-1-264.png

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JMA not too bad this evening.

JE264-21.thumb.gif.c8a1fcec76f830f652c5343415e7aea7.gifJE264-7.thumb.gif.a2f7ccc90b71e54dbdc46155661905aa.gif

 

So chances are of something half decent to look forward to from the NW with the ECM being the pick of the crop. 13 days of January left remember so time is still on our side, things can change very quickly of course, even the ECM D15 clusters, or should I say 100% cluster, if correct only takes us out to the 2nd of February, so chin up buttercups, all is not lost.😉

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I've just been given a privileged preview of the 0z runs

Wow!

You won't believe the change!  Winter is truly here for the next six weeks

On the calendar

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T144 for all 3. Ukmo is “better” than the other 2.  

F6BB049E-7A9F-44E1-B1F0-2D442C12EA82.png

09B21C26-2576-47F1-A035-4F5AB2A3FDDE.png

2B7141C5-EAB7-45D5-9DB4-009D1B98B9C9.png

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Not much to say really, same old, same old right out till D16. We are locked into the current pattern of no northern blocking. Maybe the jet further south, or maybe not, if it does then likely cold-zonal rather than cool-mild. But NW'ly can only get you so far for wintry weather especially the further SE you are.

GEM moves towards ECM at D10 with a mini-ridge in the westerly flow so maybe 48h of cooler uppers, though upper T850's cut off early so a watered down cold rain scenario mostly. GFS flatter again but probably too progressive as per usual so expect a shift towards GEM/ECM. Maybe as suggested repeated pattern though still the mean in FI suggests anomalous heights building near the UK, and that maybe the MJO signal; dying in 7 and moving back to 5, so that is subject to change. D16 mean:

831722510_gensnh-21-1-384(1).thumb.png.1cb54ff6308212bac997222b6f43e3cd.png

No need to comment on the above, a picture paints a thousand words.

As for the hope that the +IOD would relax, maybe second thoughts on that:

May explain why we are stuck in this rut. As for the strat, I suspect that if an SSW happens it will be too late to save winter, but maybe a cool damp Spring again? Still no sign of the MJO/WWB showing up in the models for anomalous height rises and even with the lag that should be helping in FI, so maybe other forces dampening the effect? Though after D10 we do see mid-lat Pacific, Russian and Iberian highs; that may indeed be the extent of the MJO forcing within the whole atmospheric mix? 

Hoping the trough at D8+ stalls a bit and we get a more potent cold upper flow like the GEM:

anim_wkk8.gif

Though the ECM has moved away from this in the latest run and GFS yet to board that train...

Edited by IDO

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It's got do bad now that I don't even waste  my time looking at the model runs I just read the last few comments on here. Even then the only glimmers of hope are often out at D15 and therefore meaningless in forecasting terms. Of course the atmosphere being the atmosphere could surprise us all come Feb but for now my hopes for this winter are not great I'm afraid.

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We seem to be back where we started this morning! Even the 18z was flat. Very little signs og an atlantic ridge util post day 10 and we know how likely that is to come off........ You know when its bad when you start viewing the model output from + 144! 

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The models look grim once again!

Any update on the progress of the MJO?

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