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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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The last few days nearly all the models are trying to bring in something colder from the Northwest towards month end. The trend is constant and with a bit of luck I really do think this change will develop further. The cold over Greenland is proper stuff so a Northwesterly would certainly pack a punch!

The long range forecasts were very good this year particularly musings from GP who was adamant that January would remain mild. An update from GP would be very welcome in where he sees February going?! Worth remembering that a lot of our recent Februarys were the coldest month of the whole winter so still time....

Edited by January Snowstorm

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4 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The last few days nearly all the models are trying to bring in something colder from the Northwest towards month end. The trend is constant and with a bit of luck I really do think this change will develop further. The cold over Greenland is proper stuff so a Northwesterly would certainly pack a punch!

The long range forecasts were very good this year particularly musings from GP who was adamant that January would remain mild. An update from GP would be very welcome in where he sees February going?! Worth remembering that a lot of our recent Februarys were the coldest month of the whole winter so still time....

Seasonal LRFs atill see February as mild.

 

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26 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The last few days nearly all the models are trying to bring in something colder from the Northwest towards month end. The trend is constant and with a bit of luck I really do think this change will develop further. The cold over Greenland is proper stuff so a Northwesterly would certainly pack a punch!

The long range forecasts were very good this year particularly musings from GP who was adamant that January would remain mild. An update from GP would be very welcome in where he sees February going?! Worth remembering that a lot of our recent Februarys were the coldest month of the whole winter so still time....

They need to try a bit harder 

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i  know its deep la  la land  how long  before the express  is saying   uk going to be snowed  in!!:cold:

gfs-2-246.png

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but the glosea sees a possible ssw.

but matt hugos tweet suggests different.

still reckon feb will surprised depending how the sww works out.

be nice to have the latter displaced vortex over the siberian side of the pole and maintaining that location.

big ask i know.its been worse than 2014..

id say if the gfs and gefs along side jma for stratospheric warming event strengthens over the coming days, then there's a possibility especially if the glosea had this idea in its projection going forward.

 

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31 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Indeed, I still have a callous/lump on my right middle finger from the hundreds of charts I plotted prior to becoming a forecaster and drawing them up.

Good afternoon 

Hi John what are your thoughts as we move towards the end of January and into February. Do you think there is still a chance to scrape something cold from this winter. I know the theme going forward seems to be focussed on a lot of high pressure around .I think a lot of people had expectations of a brekthrogh towards the end of January (which could still happen) we have seen pattern changes happening overnight but to me I can't see anything positive in terms iof cold or snow in the coming days.

i had much hoped that we would see a trend in European temperatures lowering, but still there is nothing drastically cold. The high pressure has been a real spoiler of this winter and experience does say that these highs can be the best for summer but the nightmare of winter. 

I think going forward we need to see some changes happening if we are going to get anything of what's left this winter. 

Hope you all have s great weekend

kind regards 😊

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59 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Indeed, I still have a callous/lump on my right middle finger from the hundreds of charts I plotted prior to becoming a forecaster and drawing them up.

Not forgetting the Met Rece plots John/ Just sneaked in to our day 😎

http://www.202-sqn-assoc.co.uk/metrecce.html

Edited by knocker

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to me the most exciting time is seen soon at the models image.thumb.png.0ea8ab1fd08ae22da14c80808cc8fc86.png

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30 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

but the glosea sees a possible ssw.

but matt hugos tweet suggests different.

still reckon feb will surprised depending how the sww works out.

be nice to have the latter displaced vortex over the siberian side of the pole and maintaining that location.

big ask i know.its been worse than 2014..

id say if the gfs and gefs along side jma for stratospheric warming event strengthens over the coming days, then there's a possibility especially if the glosea had this idea in its projection going forward.

 

let us be surprised then 

 

image.thumb.png.03c37330181f0cc361e366bad91d347a.pngimage.thumb.png.0296810dcc9a8952bf08170adbcf4d49.png

Edited by Dennis

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Will we see that all-time warmest January CET? My guess would be that, though close, it'll nae quite make it this time...?🤔

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

So we await the arrival of the SSW then...should it even deign to appear?:shok:

Edited by General Cluster

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1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

Will we see that all-time warmest January CET? My guess would be that, though close, it'll nae quite make it this time...?🤔

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

So we await the arrival of the SSW then...should it even deign to appear?:shok:

Well in recent times Jan 2007 was pretty close to the all time record at 7.0.  The following year in 2008 saw another notably mild January as well.  I get the feeling that given the upcoming anticyclonic spell which will likely be cool enough to drag the CET down into the 6s, it is now looking less likely that this month will make it to the 1916 level of 7.5, but we could well end up with a month to rival the more recent notably mild Januarys in 2007 and 2008.

Edited by North-Easterly Blast

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Ecm looks pretty decent at the end again, yet not a single comment on the run! 

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 spacer.pngECM 0z @ 240

 

spacer.pngECM 12z @ 240

 

spacer.pngECM 12 z uppers @ 240

A little bit better at the end from ECM 12z in comparison to the 0z but hardly enough to get carried away with yet. 

The good news is that the GFS has been pointing at a cold Northwesterly for 28th / 29th Jan too for several runs  . So there is still hope

spacer.pngGEFS 12z control run @ 240

 

Edited by Jeremy Shockey

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3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Ecm looks pretty decent at the end again, yet not a single comment on the run! 

Yes looks good, very good even, but the big question is will it still be there on the 00z run though?🤔

ECE1-240.png

ECE0-240.png

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Thanks Dennis for you stratosphere plots earlier. Theres a possibility of complications with model projections due to the current period of heights. But the Ecm slows the trend slightly enables a warm flow of the Greenland iceshelf a precursor of a stratospheric warming. There's also alot of warm wave activity which is somewhat putting enormous pressure on the vortex holding it over the Eastern side of the pole double whammy would be a stratospheric warming which could possibly aid in a cold end to winter into spring. The vortex is definitely wobbling this allows pressure rises in unexpected places this then also desrupts the vortex further. But we shall see the cold troposphere verses the warm stratosphere. 50/50 but the Ecm is not the worst tonight. 

Edited by MR EXTREMES

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9 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Ecm looks pretty decent at the end again, yet not a single comment on the run! 

It is what it is when the NH profile is zonal, it is the best we can expect. But for most it will be fleeting followed by a rise in temps and for the south a bit "meh". However, I will be grateful of something more interesting and some cold days followed by a NW'ly cold airflow will do for the time being. Maybe a rinse and repeat to follow if the pattern does not change.

Though I would add that post-D8 remains fluid as the three main models show at D10:

ECE1-240.thumb.gif.39e5cc84a9f6e36bec12806a7fdc96a7.gifgfseu-0-240.thumb.png.de2904aaf23cbda77e735b0a4bad9945.pnggemeu-0-240.thumb.png.1c4b3ab77d665cdca2e24a51d209a784.png

They are a variation on a theme and usually they meet in the middle, and that will be another damp squib. It is not until D12 that the GFS op gives us that NW'ly (supported by control). But this keeps being delayed so it seems on the never never at the moment! Neither the GEM or GFS mean supports the ECM op or the GFS D12 NW'ly so a way to go before we get unanimity for a 48h cold burst and compared to the January so far small pickings indeed (3.9c above average before today)! We shall see...

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