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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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It really is tough for coldies so far this Winter.

Again as the latest GFS shows the NH jet flow is so flat with little ridging anywhere

gfsnh-5-120.thumb.png.cb2d7b100a7dad77e31c14c0d70d82e5.pngfax120s.thumb.gif.1a5762e62eb96c47d8a4ac4a464a5206.gif 

keeping the cold bottled up above 60n much of the time.The high will at least give a mostly dry few days with some night frosts and daytime temperatures near normal so at least feeling a bit more seasonal.

 

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18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

image.thumb.png.bf139e471db5c43ac2f909edcba6593b.png

Slightly better for here 1706339821_graphe3_1000___-3.16202_56.10878_(4).thumb.png.084b33d488d7256807ec286bd9d9d0e6.png still dont think the northerly is being handled particularly well and probably plenty more runs before it gets ironed out one way or another and still praying that the MJO can go into phase 7 as strongly as possible (still a split within the models on the strength)

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The northerly signal has more or less gone now but I always thought that was an outside chance in any case. 

What does seem to be a trend is for high pressure to stick around the UK for longer so a dry spell especially for southern areas could be on the cards. How much cloud becomes trapped under the high is the uncertainty at the moment

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The problem is that yesterday’s better looking charts were, once again, deep into FI territory. I could understand the despondency if there was a backtrack at T96, but T240 charts are usually pure fiction.

It may just be one of those winters . . .

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Gfs op was another mild run from the pack so don't give up hope of a Northerly, plenty of cold options still going, and the ecm run was quite promising. 

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We're riding the jet boys - like back in 200xxx

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Greenland 0z and a cool start of the weekend

 image.thumb.png.3ed6ea7b8839316aba693b94ffe32fbb.pngimage.thumb.png.4232ad21b552e24dc81eb3a811393d9c.png

Edited by Dennis

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7 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Oooohhhhh GFS you are a tease, but I do love you... 😉

gens-0-0-300.png

gens-0-1-300.png

gens-4-0-312.png

gens-4-1-300.png

LOL she's so naughty 

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The three models at D10 all suggest that if the 24h mini-trough in the westerly flow does provide a mini-ridge and a transient cold flow, a northerly is low-probability, more like a NW'ly:

gemeu-0-240.thumb.png.c184ac6d30b2b190c79d6d131a23231f.pnggfseu-0-240.thumb.png.5616d3f8a4112d5ed41e143f946a5a0c.pngECE1-240.thumb.gif.e329a68269cdf3fe73b7c2cfc6c7eba6.gif

As we would expect ECM the most amplified and low-verification, the GEM much flatter at that period with no mini-trough and the GFS in the middle ground. Either way for the south, pretty much a non-event. The GFS trending as per yesterday with UK heights build from post-D10, giving UK anomalous heights right out into D16+. The mean supports this well:

anim_bxv2.gif

Though variations on a theme and the op was the milder end of the envelope. Too early to see if this is a change to early Spring, but as we enter February not a great turn of events as it currently stands (caveats & disclaimers). Anyways dire doesn't really cover it as we see the models take us out of the coldest phase of winter.

Edited by IDO

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Ecm  ,promise at the very end for some slushy showers  ,going now for a good old chat up the garden wood shed  ,we need a visit from the  north so will ask the ECM to be full of late xmas cheer tonight  ,lovely white crisp winter morning today , cheers .

.

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When the trust in winter is at the bottom .....is help from above (the stratosphere)  needed 

.image.thumb.png.58d763b8804dc6dd571380010a0c00a7.png

Edited by Dennis

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1 hour ago, Dennis said:

Greenland 0z and a cool start of the weekend

 image.thumb.png.3ed6ea7b8839316aba693b94ffe32fbb.pngimage.thumb.png.4232ad21b552e24dc81eb3a811393d9c.png

Nice and wintery - i’d bank that to be honest.  

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Today's GFS 00Z not looking to good for my, or anyone else's, snow chances...?😴

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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I love these coloured plotted charts. Almost old school charts. Going back some decades ago before computer print outs these and various other charts were hand plotted with two coloured ink pens at speed and drawn up by forecasters ( much more fun ) I think @johnholmes@knocker Anyway looks like some interesting weather over Iberia heading their way as confirmed with a developing upper trough on the model chart.

C

8_A_sfc_full_ocean_color.png-nggid0513105-ngg0dyn-900x800x100-00f0w010c010r110f110r010t010.png

ARPOPEU00_102_1.png

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Well, for anticyclonic gloom-lovers, the 06Z is a peach!😴

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Could be an interesting day 10 on this run. More opportunity for a ridge promoting a north/ north westerly flow.

DF7D1B95-172A-426D-BB28-5EACF65A5F20.png

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25 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Well, for anticyclonic gloom-lovers, the 06Z is a peach!😴

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Considering how much rain we've had since way back at the start of autumn I'd snap up that chart with open arms because it'll be dry!! 

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No big changes on the 06z. The jet further south, so more unsettled for the south compared to the 0z. The tPV still in full-on mode with zero signs of any forcing, from the MJO or whatever:

gfsnh-0-366.thumb.png.e2738cebf88c817a3d5e9235da8d334c.png

Chances in this setup for the odd PM blast, transitional, and likely to be watered down as we approach T0. 

Short-term, clear skies, so cold high for a couple of days, then more cloudy, so milder. This maybe the closest the south gets to a winter in 2019/20, so make the most, and enjoy...

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3 minutes ago, IDO said:

 

Short-term, clear skies, so cold high for a couple of days, then more cloudy, so milder. This maybe the closest the south gets to a winter in 2019/20, so make the most, and enjoy...

Thanks, I’ll put a jumper on😩😄

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It's the extent of the yellows and oranges that's got my interest piqued...Sooner or later (whenever the tPV starts to break down) all that warm air is going to flood north...?🤔

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Edited by General Cluster

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spacer.pngGFS 6z for 28th Janspacer.png

For a number of recent runs now GFS puts the High in a favourable position on Jan 28th for a short cold Northwesterly blast.

-8 uppers flooding down ( but probably watered down by the time we get there )

It will be interesting to see the control for the GEFS 6z shortly since that has been very good recently for this date also.

 

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5 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

It's the extent of the yellows and oranges that's got my interest piqued...Sooner or later (whenever the tPV starts to break down) all that warm air is going to flood north...?🤔

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Well of course it will, during Spring when the continents start to warm up. If the lack of snow cover continues over Europe then an early spring is possible. 

Rather sums up our winter this high pressure spell will bring in average to slightly above temperatures despite frosty nights and sunny days

 I'm afraid any cold and snow set ups are a long way off, really is very little signs of anything snowy showing. 

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