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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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49 minutes ago, jules216 said:

That change between 6Z and 12Z 😞 Once again the troughing in to Europe has failed big time. This time big GFS fail. Packing in on this diabolical winter, evenings already longer and spring not far away,knowing we can reach 20C in March with this  ever present Euro high

gfs-0-186.png

gfs-0-174.png

A bit harsh, check out the GEM:

gem-0-168.thumb.png.de0f0a8792334f994ab115e8cb66b9d4.pnggem-0-156.thumb.png.68e05b4e9249aed0e72b47d49e8a6bb4.png

It has been clear for a few days that past D7 is very volatile due to the setup and more so whether the MJO signal is real or not. The runs will adapt to the ebb and flow of the new data. It does look like GFS and GEM are now moving away from the MJO signal and maintaining a westerly zonal onslaught as would be expected with a mega-tPV and no tropical forcing. We were warned that the background signals are not necessarily to be taken at face value until there is consistency. A few more winter-killer runs like the GFS and we will be able to ignore that MJO move 6-7. The jury remains out for the short-term but not a good trend. 

The GFS mean taken a step towards the ECM D10 mean:

84516994_EDH1-240(1).thumb.gif.44a4651a16fcd7db94fcfa1cc6ecfcff.gif1432439544_gensnh-21-1-240(2).thumb.png.01c75298247e4a6b4a728c14c7124dd1.png

In late December when this pattern emerged we all knew from experience that it could effectively wipe out half the winter and is why many of us prefer no delay in the tPV winding up as those SSW hopes in Nov/Dec generally lead to disappointments and that delay ruins prime time January Winter. But here we are, January written off and signs for February mediocre at best!

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS 12z ends with bone chilling cold but dry.

image.thumb.png.ba12aa0f66db2d8eb3b0ef834427f943.png

The storm over eastern Canada on that frame looks exceptionally compact, more like a tropical feature.  Wind gusts would be well into the 100mph range!

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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Now maybe that would warrant a cold weather alert 😂😂. Can’t believe ones been issued for this weekend. #stupid 

 

Quite, windy in south but also remember that its not just wind speed that lowers the feels like temps, its a dry airmass as well so that would be a worry for people with illnesses.

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2 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

The storm over eastern Canada on that frame looks exceptionally compact, more like a tropical feature.  Wind gusts would be well into the 100mph range!

Yes so probably wont verify which makes my post redundant anyway but was just illustrating that with relatively high heights you can still get bitter feeling weather.

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FWIW and that is not a lot, the GFS 12z run in FI pretty strong support for a high close to the UK, again:

gens_panel_mif9.png D16 mean anomaly: gens-21-5-384.thumb.png.73c7904a66edc5d9f383869baac3995b.png

 

Edited by IDO

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Interested to see what the ECM comes up with as all 3, ICON, GFS, UKMO all sit differently. Still a chance this could end better than expected, nothing certain at mid range yet.

The ECM to follow the ICON over the other flatter 2?

iconnh-0-144.thumb.png.1d395323be5f087cf5a5489e8cea3392.pnggfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.b8ce597f466e8286c89889cbdb354e5a.pngUN144-21.thumb.GIF.31a22483d0b6b8e771bea2e3208a5724.GIF

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Some light snow on offer in FI on the 12z GFS 

CB3A7AE0-4299-4F00-A9DF-37CF193795BC.png

870BFD3E-ECA0-4F85-B9DB-9EE2AA416A2C.png

6750E212-E22B-4B1A-BE76-7E8054240905.png

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22 minutes ago, IDO said:

A bit harsh, check out the GEM:

gem-0-168.thumb.png.de0f0a8792334f994ab115e8cb66b9d4.pnggem-0-156.thumb.png.68e05b4e9249aed0e72b47d49e8a6bb4.png

 

 

@IDO Last year we had SSW and weak vortex now quite opposite, results the same. Last year we had La Nina destructive easterly African standing wave, now we have Nino like WWB, result the same. I couldn't believe that after such a record warm summer we will follow it up with record mild winter and all this under deep solar minimum conditions, yet we managed. OK on to next theory - SST unfavorable or whatever. We may indeed have accelerated the global warming by not reducing the CO2  globally, the subtropical high pressures are larger and block all the attempts of low pressure diving south from Arctic. Europe is becoming one big island of heat like some African or Arabian regions.  Last winter that would categorize as below average was 2002/03 here in Slovakia.

Edited by jules216
spell

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59 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

When was the last time a strong high sat astride the U.K. for a week ??.

September last - and rather nice it was too..😋

image.thumb.png.46f0e88dbb31f95d231bdebb3bce8b09.pngimage.thumb.png.94cd0f9b29591dae45f32a53360dd763.pngimage.thumb.png.441ff042b9c597ecf4c061385562fce3.png

image.thumb.png.14fd0f7ad073efff62a1fd0ccaf802fa.pngimage.thumb.png.8fa9dd2df3bdab650b9f40441f492e7e.pngimage.thumb.png.68784d7f5e05084b905b338e909a8cfb.png

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The Gfs run was painfull to watch, but  did deliver at the end .so quite possible that tonights gfs run will improve earlier  ,just a big hunch .so we now await ECM ,Possibly a boom BOOM at 240 hrs ,or if we are all good guys and girls 

a boom even at 192 hrs , catch you up later .

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quite unreal...and sums our luck. ..the partial  wedge  of scandinavian heights are scuppering the siberian-lobe inflow. ..and  the aid of Canadian  sector sister lobe. .

 

we have to fall in b4 winters close. ...surely! !!!

ECH1-144.gif

Edited by tight isobar

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EC looks really poor at 168...

Those heights across Europe are getting on my pip now.

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our saving grace ???..

certainly  making me look 1. .of late 😕..

 

 

 

perhaps !!!

Screenshot_2020-01-17-18-40-15.png

ECH1-192.gifperhaps. ...

download.jpeg

Edited by tight isobar

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another  euro HP on the way relentless stuff. is this another 4 weeks worth? with the PV also gaining again in greenland things are looking grim going forward very sad 

 

ECM1-168.gif

ECH1-168.gif

Edited by igloo

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Have to say tremendous consistency from the ECM 192 chart - practically identical to its 0z output.

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Another cold and frosty ecm widely up to 192 hours!!after that it looks like a bitter northerly about to sweep south!!perfect!!

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3 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Cold for the far North.

ECH1-216.GIF.thumb.png.888f7c3963318bdea1470485c60f2d6d.pngECH0-216.GIF.thumb.png.9eeef04a0239355b3195ca9d5406578c.png

Yes - of Canada 😂

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1 hour ago, IDO said:

FWIW and that is not a lot, the GFS 12z run in FI pretty strong support for a high close to the UK, again:

gens_panel_mif9.png D16 mean anomaly: gens-21-5-384.thumb.png.73c7904a66edc5d9f383869baac3995b.png

 

As did the 00z ec suite .....

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