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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

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Whats done is done!!theres no going back in regards to that northerly around 192 hours!!models have flattened out considerably which i saw coming a mile off lol!one good thing is we are in for a very long dry spell especially considering all the rain in the last 4 months!!

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37 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Firstly I can understand the downbeat mood in here... Finding this cold snap is liking finding the pot of gold at the end of a rainbow. Your point about who wants winter at the end of Feb makes no sense to me though... Technically speaking it's winter till the final 3rd of March. And I'm pretty sure most on here would take a shot at a decent snow event come the end of Feb with open arms, and I'm pretty sure we wouldnt be to concerned over the fruit trees for a week. Still a glimmer of hope on the ECM 10 day output... But it's 10 day's!! Worse case scenario is let's right of rest of the month, and pin our hopes on something more promising come Feb, whether it be early or late, who cares!! Just bring it.... The search goes on. 

ECM0-240.gif

ECM1-240.gif

I like the positivity mate and I don't want to sound like one of the joyless posters who take delight in crushing people's hopes but it's a shocker today

Yet again (YET AGAIN), the models - and especially ECM - underestimate the strength of Euro heights and the jet stream's desire to crash over us or to our north. I like the ECM as a model but it does this time and time again. GFS does it too. A real model weakness. Perhaps they need to adjust to the new reality

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9 minutes ago, LRD said:

I like the positivity mate and I don't want to sound like one of the joyless posters who take delight in crushing people's hopes but it's a shocker today

Yet again (YET AGAIN), the models - and especially ECM - underestimate the strength of Euro heights and the jet stream's desire to crash over us or to our north. I like the ECM as a model but it does this time and time again. GFS does it too. A real model weakness. Perhaps they need to adjust to the new reality

Yes, for me the game has changed and the continuation of +AO/NAO is remarkable. 

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spacer.pngGFS 6z @ 258 spacer.png

Actually i don't think its all over for a cold Northwesterly shot around 28th Jan.( as shown by GFS 6z )

It would only need a slightly better orientation of the high for the cold uppers to come flooding down. ( for the North of the UK at least )

spacer.png

Still a few very cold options on the GEFS

Lets see what the 12 z's bring shortly.

 

 

 

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The ecm operational wasn’t too bad earlier,nothing like the almighty gfs 🙄is that just being ignored in all these negative posts,plus only a slight difference  temperature range in the gfs ensembles,like 20c ,but let’s ignore that shall we.

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27 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Well the ICON's going for it so who will be right.

iconnh-0-180.thumb.png.5acdf863c2e591ea79c9fd2cf88301bb.pnggiphy.thumb.gif.fd96c6a7801280da35801f20cf180384.gif

lets see how the rest of the 12z suits are like later.

It's ok but that innocuous-looking little low, in between the two massive highs and which lies off of the Canadian seaboard on that chart, will flatten everything out and somehow outgun the influence of those two strong looking highs. Doesn't look like a low that would head SE to me

Edited by LRD

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That change between 6Z and 12Z 😞 Once again the troughing in to Europe has failed big time. This time big GFS fail. Packing in on this diabolical winter, evenings already longer and spring not far away,knowing we can reach 20C in March with this  ever present Euro high

gfs-0-186.png

gfs-0-174.png

Edited by jules216
spelling

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Pretty impressive how this GFS goes from a solid 1045mb high over us to south westerlies stretching from the Azores to Russia within less than 3 days.

UKMO looks a lot more promising for a north westerly later on.

Edited by Johnp

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5 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Pretty impressive how this GFS goes from a solid 1045mb high over us to south westerlies stretching from the Azores to Russia within less than 3 days.

I say it every year, but we only look at GFS because its products are free.

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Is the gfs going to give us some much needed cold at 850 mb temp . Some nice cold air LURKING to our north  we should know within 10 minutes or so , big differences already at 180hrs .cheers .wheres the kitchen  im hid behind sofa .

 

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6 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

6z keeping HP over the UK up to 25th now, struggling to back west, although slightly HP over Greenland, but struggling to influence the UK.

When was the last time a strong high sat astride the U.K. for a week ??.

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11 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I say it every year, but we only look at GFS because its products are free.

Exactly. TOO much faith in gfs in here, looking forward to next ecm run, at least plenty of cold air up North, if we can ever tap into it that is. 

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54 minutes ago, jules216 said:

That change between 6Z and 12Z 😞 Once again the troughing in to Europe has failed big time. This time big GFS fail. Packing in on this diabolical winter, evenings already longer and spring not far away,knowing we can reach 20C in March with this  ever present Euro high

gfs-0-186.png

gfs-0-174.png

I agree, jules, and I think we may have an 'mastodon in the room': 🤔

I'd normally be looking to the NW, N or NW, at this time of year; but, as was the case in 1975, a lot seems to rest upon what happens to the south?

Jan 30 2020:   h500slp.png   

Jan 30 1975: Rrea00119750130.gif

Now correct me if I'm wrong, but this year's expanse of >5C uppers is even greater than it was, back in 1975...? Will we get a cold and snowy spring, a hot and thundery summer; or, maybe both...Or none of the above!:unknw:

Edited by General Cluster
I'm losing my marbles!

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5 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Firstly I can understand the downbeat mood in here... Finding this cold snap is liking finding the pot of gold at the end of a rainbow. Your point about who wants winter at the end of Feb makes no sense to me though... Technically speaking it's winter till the final 3rd of March. And I'm pretty sure most on here would take a shot at a decent snow event come the end of Feb with open arms, and I'm pretty sure we wouldnt be to concerned over the fruit trees for a week. Still a glimmer of hope on the ECM 10 day output... But it's 10 day's!! Worse case scenario is let's right of rest of the month, and pin our hopes on something more promising come Feb, whether it be early or late, who cares!! Just bring it.... The search goes on. 

ECM0-240.gif

ECM1-240.gif

The meteorological winter runs December till February. 

The astronomical winter is the domain of druids, stargazers and suspect individuals that claim to heal using natural crystals.

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GFS 12z ends with bone chilling cold but dry.

image.thumb.png.ba12aa0f66db2d8eb3b0ef834427f943.png

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GEFS12z if it will succeed thatt a HP is building after PV-lobe than the SNOWmargeddon can start 😀

image.thumb.png.2d7af6b500aca3a542c6f5798ff5d1fb.pngimage.thumb.png.30ce91c6cca99d850ec08f28e848ffb6.png

Edited by Dennis

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1 minute ago, Sceptical said:

The meteorological winter runs December till February. 

The astronomical winter is the domain of druids, stargazers and suspect individuals that claim to heal using natural crystals.

Omg that’s so funny 😂!

That last bit about suspect individuals, classic .

 

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